Why Success at the Italian Open Is Crucial to Contending at the French Open
Andy Murray’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 Italian Open will be an interesting test case for how well he contends at the French Open. Meanwhile, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic understand that their preparation at Rome is the most important road that leads to victory at the French Open's courts at Roland Garros.
Just how important is this Italian to French connection? The appetizing similarities are more than fresh-baked bread, Renaissance art and sublime weather. Tennis is almost a mirror image on slow red clay with its high bounces and grueling fitness demands. Rome is the regal carpet to crowning the king of European clay.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
There are also historical patterns that show success at Rome is crucial to eventually winning the hearts of Paris and posing with the Musketeers Cup for Eiffel Tower photo shoots. Rome is a tough arena, and arriving at the semifinals is at least a respectable, if not prescient, indicator of who can contend for the most sought-after major of the year.
Roman Emperors Nadal and Novak
Quick, name the Spanish-Mallorcan player who won Rome in 2004.
No, it’s not Nadal.
If you knew the answer was Carlos Moya, you probably knew that he also won the 1998 French Open. It’s furthermore a significant piece of trivia on two other accounts. First, it was the last time somebody other than Nadal or Djokovic won Rome. Second, there is a consistent correlation with Italian and French Open success. Moya did not dominate his era, but he is still only one of 10 players in the Open era to win Monte Carlo, Rome and the French Open.
Champions like Andre Agassi, Juan Carlos Ferrero and Gustavo Kuerten also won titles at Rome and Roland Garros. There are plenty of other examples scaling back to the advent of the Open era in 1968, but we will concern ourselves with more recent history and specifically the Nadal era beginning in 2005, which has been a more outlying period of unusual domination.
Nadal, of course, has rewritten the record books with seven Rome titles since 2005, and nine French Open crowns. It’s a ridiculously impossible standard for another to chase, and it has furthermore locked out other players from contending at either venue.
Djokovic with the other three titles (2008, 11, 14) since 2005 is certainly the greatest player on clay who has not won the French Open. It’s staggering to think about the exclusive groups he has joined, and the number of titles we crunched at the beginning of the 2014 clay-court season. Here is where he stands:
- One of only 11 players in the Open era to win Monte Carlo two times. The other winners all won the French Open at least once in their careers. Djokovic is the exception thus far.
- One of only nine players to win at least two Rome titles; the other eight all have a French Open title. Djokovic, Thomas Muster and Nadal are the only players to ever win at least three Rome titles.
- The only player to win at least one title at Monte Carlo and Rome but without a French Open title.
So Djokovic has proved his dominance everywhere but in dethroning Nadal. But his success at Rome is clear proof that he is worthy of bidding for the French Open title.
Finals and Semis-Success
There have been French Open winners who did not win Rome, but these finalists have had strong success at Rome at some point in their career and usually often.
Roger Federer was a three-time finalist at Rome and came within an eyelash of hauling in the 2006 Rome trophy. Nadal survived Federer’s ill-fated attempt at a winner up the line. The point is that Federer proved himself at Rome with excellent success, and it’s no accident he won the 2009 French Open title (furthermore, Federer was runner-up at Roland Garros four times to Nadal).
David Ferrer is another worthy Rome warrior in the past decade. He was a finalist in 2010, and he replicated this success as a finalist in the 2013 French Open.
Guillermo Coria had a finals appearance at Roland Garros in 2004 and at Rome in 2005.
Stanislas Wawrinka and Fernando Gonzalez were finalists at Rome, but less successful at the French Open. Interestingly, they are hard hitters who found better Grand Slam success at Melbourne. Robin Soderling, who blasted his way to two famous finals appearances in 2009 and 2010, found success elsewhere for a couple of years.
Semifinalists at Rome are notably less successful than finalists or champions, but they are usually impact players who eventually compete for just as much success at Roland Garros. For instance, Andy Murray has been a semifinalist at Rome in 2011 and semifinalist at Paris in 2011 and 2014. Rome is a fair reflection of how he has done at the French Open.
Even the wildly inconsistent and underachieving Ernests Gulbis was a Rome semifinalist in 2010 and eventually a Roland Garros semifinalist in 2014.
To be clear, there are many more fine semifinalists at Rome who have been light contenders at Roland Garros but still a long distance from winning the title. Respected players like David Nalbandian, Andy Roddick, Gael Monfils, Nikolay Davydenko, Richard Gasquet, Fernando Verdasco and Tomas Berdych have been semifinalists but never favored contenders.
The Rome semifinalists are usually second-tier long shots on the outside looking in at more legitimate contenders at Roland Garros. Time will tell if last year’s Rome semifinalists Grigor Dimitrov and Milos Raonic eventually match this in the French Open, but nobody is holding their breath.
Another lesson is that Rome matters a lot more than Madrid, something that Murray supporters should keep in mind even as we all ponder his improved chances in competing for the 2015 French Open. Conversely, Nadal fans could feel galvanized if their hero goes on to win Rome. His recent struggles would feel less important.
Djokovic’s decision to skip Madrid makes sense if he plows through Rome. It’s really the best plan for setting up a French Open title, even if tennis fans wonder if he could have swept the first half of the year.
Rome and Paris might not always go hand in hand with all cultural parallels, but they are sisters in tennis. Success at the French Open begins at the former and ends at the latter.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
