Playing Fact or Fiction with MLB's Biggest 1st-Quarter Breakouts
Small sample size. That's the rebuttal anytime an unheralded MLB player like Stephen Vogt or Chris Heston storms out of the gates.
After all, the big league season is a 162-game grind, and over the course of that marathon, the numbers tend to even out. As baseball's biggest breakouts hit the one-quarter mark in the race, it's worth digging through the numbers and playing a round of fact or fiction.
The verdicts are promising for most of the breakout players and clubs who crack this list. But for a couple of the fact or fiction participants, a major drop-off is in the immediate future.
Chris Heston, SP, San Francisco Giants
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The Breakout
Brian Sabean has a remarkable knack for finding quality starters in the draft.
It looks like the San Francisco Giants' executive vice president of baseball operations has done it again.
Rookie Chris Heston is leading the club in innings pitched (46.1) and is second on the staff in ERA (2.91). That ERA would be considerably lower if not for one shaky game at the notoriously hitter-friendly Coors Field on April 24 when he served up six earned runs in 5.1 frames against the Colorado Rockies.
The 27-year-old turned in his best work yet on May 12, as he spun a two-hit complete game, allowing just a single run while punching out 10.
His big league resume is extremely limited—just seven starts—but his minor league numbers indicate a bright future for the right-hander. In six seasons on the farm, Heston recorded a 3.56 ERA in 133 outings.
The Verdict: Fact
Houston Astros
2 of 6
The Breakout
After an incredible start to the season, the 21-13 Houston Astros are beginning to fall back to the pack in the American League West.
The team's middling rotation, which ranks No. 17 in ERA, looms as the Astros' potential downfall. Still, the biggest concern for Houston is a factor completely out of the squad's control.
The Los Angeles Angels and the Seattle Mariners, who have two of the most talented rosters in the circuit, have yet to hit their respective stride. Currently, the Angels are swinging at a clip of .230 as a team. It's only a matter of time before slow starters—yet established big leaguers—such as Albert Pujols, Matt Joyce, Erick Aybar and David Freese turn it around.
As for the Mariners, the fundamental problem has been the bullpen which has already accounted for nine losses. According to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports, the group only accounted for 20 losses all last year, and the core of the pen remains in tact. Once manager Lloyd McClendon gets his relief corps in order, the Mariners will climb up the standings.
The Verdict: Fiction
Devon Travis, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays
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The Breakout
After a monster April which included six bombs, a .325 average and a 1.018 OPS, Devon Travis has cooled off.
In his past 10 contests, the first-year second baseman for the Toronto Blue Jays checks in with a .135 average. Travis' minor league numbers make the case that the 24-year-old's future will look a lot more like his April than his May.
In parts of three seasons in the minors, Travis raked up wherever he went, compiling a .323 average in 257 games. With a knack for hitting for high average and plenty of pop (.460 slugging percentage in the minors), Travis has the look of a future star.
The Verdict: Fact
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Nick Martinez, SP, Texas Rangers
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The Breakout
With the seventh-best ERA in the bigs, Nick Martinez sure has shattered expectations.
The right-handed starter was nearly untouchable in his first four outings, giving up just a single earned run. After seven starts, he's yet to give up more than three runs in any given game and owns a 2-0 record and 1.88 ERA.
Still, it's not time to vote Martinez into the All-Star Game just yet. Taking a closer look at the stats, there are some red flags lurking. Martinez has produced an extremely low number of swing-and-misses, totaling just 19 strikeouts in 43 innings. Plus, he's outpitching his FIP (3.62) by nearly two runs, per FanGraphs.
The Verdict: Fiction
New York Mets
5 of 6
The Breakout
Quality starting pitching is the cornerstone of big league success.
There's no question about it—the New York Mets check that box. The NL East front-runners are trotting out one of the most effective starting rotations in baseball, as the group owns the second-best ERA (3.15).
From Matt Harvey to Jacob deGrom to the ageless Bartolo Colon, the team's arms are giving the Mets a chance to win on any given night. While the pitching-rich squad is a legitimate playoff contender, there's no guarantee that a division crown is in the cards.
After wobbling out of the blocks, the Washington Nationals are officially locked in. The Nats have gone eight of 10 and are just two games behind New York with a 19-16 record.
The Verdict: Fact
Stephen Vogt, C, Oakland Athletics
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The Breakout
If Billy Beane were to create a player in the Moneyball laboratory, Stephen Vogt would be the end result.
The 29-year-old has the versatility to play catcher, first base and outfield, and he can swing it at the dish. Vogt is tied for second in the majors in RBI (30), ranks No. 8 in OBP (.425), checks in at fourth in slugging percentage (.673) and is No. 5 in OPS (1.098).
It's been a monster start for Vogt, but he has a history of putting up promising numbers with the bat. While biding his time in the minors for parts of eight seasons, Vogt posted a .305 average. His skipper Bob Melvin has certainly been impressed with the early returns.
“What he’s done up this point in time behind the plate is significant as any catcher in the league,' said the manager (via Meg Wochnick of the News Tribune). "He’s taken advantage of a great opportunity, and he’s running with it as well as you would expect.”
One of the keys to success for Vogt has been his significantly improved patience. Last year, he tallied 16 walks in 287 plate appearances. This year, the left-handed hitter has already equaled that total in just 120 trips.
The Verdict: Fact
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com or MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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