Who Should Andy Murray Be More Worried About at French Open: Djokovic or Nadal?

Andy Murray’s meteoric rise at Madrid has pundits and oddsmakers talking about his chances to win the 2015 French Open. For the first time in his career Murray is a legitimate clay-court contender and challenger to longtime rivals Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros.

Which superstar would he rather avoid if he is to pull off this Cinderella story?

There are more than a few stars that need to align for Murray to pull this off, and he will not be favored against either player should they meet, but he can win this major if a few things go his way.

Wish for the Bottom Half

The first break that Murray needs is to land in the bottom half of the French Open draw. It reeks of heresy to suggest that Murray would rather play Swiss great and 2009 French Open champion Roger Federer, but it’s the easier road.

Murray does not want to somehow land in the top half of the draw with Novak Djokovic. This would perhaps mean a semifinal meeting with the World No. 1, but that's not even the worst scenario.

Suppose Murray had to play Nadal in the quarterfinals and Djokovic in the semifinals just to get to the French Open final? It would be too much for a sparkling encore against the proud Spanish champion who has only lost one time in a decade at Roland Garros, and then to follow that up by beating Djokovic. If that were to happen, there’s no guarantee he would have the energy to play a final, be it Federer, Kei Nishikori or a surprise finalist like Tomas Berdych.

Let Nadal and Djokovic spill each other’s blood in the top half of the draw. Murray would love to find a soft road through the Federer half, complete with other players who do not suddenly put together a great day. It would be better to avoid players like Fabio Fognini, Nick Kyrgios, Stanislas Wawrinka or even John Isner. You never know when they will put together the perfect day.

Fear King Novak

Djokovic is the biggest obstacle to Murray’s hopes for a French Open title. The Serbian is rested, motivated and, in case some tennis fans have forgotten, playing at a much higher level in 2015 than anyone else. Murray won Madrid at a quicker clay court that did not include Djokovic. Djokovic is already sitting on the previous three Masters 1000 titles and the Australian Open where he dismantled Murray.

The recent history in their rivalry has been that of pugilist and punching bag. Djokovic has dominated their last seven meetings since dropping the 2013 Wimbledon final. He is not only the superior ball striker but has a far greater track record on clay.

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Djokovic has evolved his game with his intelligence. He can hit Murray off the court when he sits on the right shots, so it’s hard to imagine Murray winning a cat-and-mouse game with the right blend of offensive intelligence.

It would also require Murray to create frustration and impatience in Djokovic. He would have to somewhat mimic Muhammad Ali’s rope-a-dope strategy against powerful George Foreman in their famed 1974 boxing match in the former Zaire. Then, Ali coerced Foreman to impatiently throw out all of his offense at once, tire out his rival and change the way Foreman had intended to box.

Murray, would have to combine his airtight defense and opportunistic offense with greater patience than Djokovic. Like his Madrid wins against Nishikori and Nadal, Murray would need a fast start, steady play and self-destructing rival.

It’s certainly not as likely as Djokovic continuing his masterful play, but Murray did defeat Djokovic for his two major titles. We might even get a sneak preview in the Rome semifinals this weekend. Djokovic figures to be more rested than Murray, but maybe the Scotsman can pull another rabbit out of the hat.

Wild-Card Rafa

It’s odd to call Nadal a wild-card contender when he still has a solid chance to nail down his 10th French Open title. The problem is that we don’t know which Nadal will show up, or if he will sustain his former brilliance seven consecutive times at Roland Garros.

Nadal is now ranked No. 7 in the ATP Rankings, so his draw could be filled with tougher tests. If we are not sure where he will land, the bigger problem is that we are not sure if he can resurrect his championship form within a couple of weeks. We saw him demolish Tomas Berdych in the Madrid semifinal only to lay an egg in the final.

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In the past, Nadal’s strategy was more straightforward: unbelievable defensive tennis, punishing topspin and the strength and movement to outlast anyone on slow red clay. His mental toughness and confidence were always huge advantages against his top rivals, but these days he has made more statements about searching for confidence and not seeing his subpar play as a deterrent to living life.

Murray showed the blueprint to remain steady while Nadal hammered too many balls outside the court; Except it’s unlikely it would happen this way again. In truth, if Nadal cannot solve these problems, he would not get as far as a Murray match. If he does solve them, he could potentially turn things around for a major payback.

The Scotsman is gaining confidence against Nadal on clay, but also wary of the great champion, as he stated for Sky Sports:

"

I pushed Rafa a few times on clay in Monte Carlo and in Rome last year and you know obviously this gives me confidence.

By no means I feel like I would go into the French as one of the favourites but if I play like that and the way I have done for the last couple of weeks, I would give myself an opportunity and that's all really I can ask for with the players around these days.

"

So call Nadal the greatest wild card of all time. It might be easier for someone to knock him out early, before the sun comes out, dries up the courts, and fuels him to reach into the past. There's still time for him to rediscover consistent precision with his big forehand and turn an avenging eye toward Murray.

Djokovic or Nadal?

Murray is in the discussion, but he’s going to need the best tennis of his life if he is to get through the entire draw at Roland Garros. He would need helpful upsets and possibly early exits from Nadal and Djokovic. He needs favorable matchups and composed resilience when adversity threatens to push him back into the seats.

Djokovic or Nadal? It would be unthinkable that he could defeat both of them, and he would need the perfect storm to navigate through one or the other. Best that he avoids both of them altogether, but that’s probably too much to wish for.