Fantasy Baseball: A 'Mad Men' Guide to the 2015 Season
It's only fitting that Mad Men's conclusion coincides with the MLB season.
Both baseball and the AMC drama turn the clock back to seemingly simpler times. Adored by many, both also attract a hearty contingent of holdouts who claim it's too boring to meet the lofty demands of modern entertainment.
Baseball can't match basketball's rapidly quickened pace or the hard hitting of football and hockey. Mad Men can relate, as a character-driven show guided by nuance feels dull in an age when murderers, zombies and dragons reign supreme.
Just as TV viewers received a rich journey by following Don Draper for seven seasons, fantasy baseball players will enjoy the ride if they stay immersed throughout the 162-game season. While Madison Avenue's sexism, racism and excessive smoking/day-drinking are poor examples to follow, Don and Co. have also offered up many poetic words of wisdom over the years.
As Mad Men closes shop this Sunday, let's apply some lessons learned to our fantasy baseball squads.
This Week's "Mad Men"
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Showrunner Matthew Weiner notoriously shields his show from anything that could remotely resemble a spoiler. As a result, unintentional comedy emerges from every episode description.
Don once had a catastrophic meltdown teased by "Don has a problem." Last week's preview declared "Don has a difficult time sleeping." This may give too much away by Weiner's standards, but the episode opened with a brief, one-off dream sequence.
To get in the Mad Men spirit, let's write understated teasers for some of the season's top early storylines.
Joey Votto Takes a Swing
Is Joey Votto hitting enough for critics crazy enough to judge his incredible plate discipline as a negative? The former MVP has bounced back to hit .293/.394/.496 with seven homers, already exceeding last year's six through 62 games.
He has sacrificed a few free passes, but a 14.2 walk percentage ranks among the game's elite batters. A healthy Votto is once again a top-shelf first baseman.
A New Employee Shows up
Of all the rookies expected to make an immediate impact, Devon Travis was barely one of them. Far exceeding any hype, the second baseman has already blasted seven home runs. Last year, he hit 10 long balls in Triple-A.
He won't maintain such a blistering pace, but the neophyte is well on his way to notching a 15-10 campaign.
Joe Girardi Addresses Workflow
Once David Robertson bolted to the Chicago White Sox, everyone giddily geared up for Dellin Betances assuming the ninth-innng mantle. With saves attached to his name, last year's breakout star would flourish as a top-five reliever.
Shows what we know. Andrew Miller instead jumped into the closer's seat and stole Betances' thunder. Through 17.2 scoreless frames, he has collected 29 strikeouts and 13 saves. Those who drafted Betances early shouldn't feel too sad yet, as he has hurled 21 scoreless frames while vulturing four wins.
"If You Don't Like What's Being Said, Change the Conversation"
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Don can turn any situation around to his favor. His words hold a hypnotic power over his coworkers and clients, coercing them to overlook his demons and constant flakiness.
In sports, a rousing speech won't change the conversation. Instead, a player simply must produce to squash a growing narrative. This season, Bryce Harper has silenced one of the sillier hot takes permeating the baseball community.
ESPN The Magazine conducted a preseason poll in which players voted Bryce Harper the game's most overrated player. Yeah...no.
Through 38 earth-shattering games, the polarizing young star is batting .326/.467/.690 with 13 homers, six he clobbered during three red-hot tilts. At the ripe old age of 22, Harper is realizing his superstar ceiling, one which has caused enough resentment among his peers to discredit a rising stud with a .847 career OPS.
He'll slow down a bit, but don't assume this torrid stretch is all smoke and mirrors. His sky-high 21.2 walk percentage puts patience master Votto to shame, and he's making firmer contact with a 38.5 hard-hit percentage.
A brash youngster more detested than Pete Campbell (but not Harry Crane) has quickly become a darling among his fantasy owners. With this start, the conversation has permanently altered from overrated to MVP candidate and early-round mainstay for the next decade.
Bobby Draper’s Replaceables
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Turnover is all too common for fantasy baseball managers and Mad Men child actors. Encapsulating Don's devout affection for his children, four children have filled the role of Bobby Draper, his older son. After all, what parent hasn't traded in a kid who messed up a line at dinner?
Bobby has toiled away in the background, only popping up when it was convenient to make Don look human or remind everyone of Betty's bitterness. It's probably not the best sign for a character when a different person can fill the spot with few viewers noticing.
If they haven't already, these players need to join the first three Bobby's on the waiver wire.
Danny Santana, SS/OF, Minnesota Twins
The benefactor of an unsustainable .404 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) last season, Danny Santana has plummeted down to earth with a normalized but still high .351 BABIP. There's no room for someone hitting .252/.269/.344 with no homers, two walks and 37 strikeouts.
Michael Cuddyer, OF, New York Mets
It's time to admit Michael Cuddyer isn't working outside of Coors Field. The equivalent of an earlier Bobby staring at the camera, the offseason acquisition is hitting .242/.302/.367 with three homers and 23.7 strikeout percentage.
Deep-league owners should hold on a little longer, but managers in shallow mixed formats should let him go. Andre Ethier, Anthony Gose, Angel Pagan and Curtis Granderson are all better options owned in fewer Yahoo Sports leagues.
R.A. Dickey, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
Completely unrecognizable from the 2012 Cy Young winning R.A. Dickey, this version has registered a 5.76 ERA with 23 strikeouts and 19 walks through 50 innings. His knuckleball that previously baffled hitters is now getting rocked due to another velocity decline.
The 40-year-old has hurled one quality start in his last six outings, and that game ended without him collecting a single punchout. Better options are available in all but the deepest leagues.
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"This Never Happened..."
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This never happened. It will shock you how much this never happened.
As someone living a lie, Don knows all about putting the past behind him. So he doesn't hesitate to sweep Peggy Olson's secret under the rug, encouraging her to move on. The flashback scene adds another layer to their complicating dynamic, which has often shifted from mentor-protogee to father-daughter to boss-disgruntled employee who can't stand each other.
Don and Peggy have spent years tirelessly running from their past, but ignoring the truth doesn't erase all memories. What's interesting, however, is Weiner's reluctance to lean heavily on either event as a major story arc, instead only subtly using them to shape his main characters.
Fantasy gamers should take Don's advice to heart, as they'll be surprised to see how quickly early struggles evaporate into distant memories. Months from now, these slow starts will have devolved into mere footnotes of little significance.
Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers
Adrian Beltre starts slow. Over his career, the decorated third baseman exits April hitting .262/.316/.424. After the All-Star break, he boasts a .296/.348/.524 slash line. He ages like fine wine, or not to mix classic dramas, but a season of The Wire. Stick around, and the payoff will prove worth the exposition.
During his early slump, which he is gradually escaping, the 36-year-old has only struck out 13 times, putting his on pace for the lowest strikeout percentage of his career. While it's time to worry Beltre is no longer an elite hitter, anyone who gives up now will look foolish this summer.
Carlos Carrasco, SP, Cleveland Indians
Corey Kluber's slow start received ample attention, but the buy-low window slammed shut after his one-hit, 18-strikeout masterpiece on Wednesday. Let's shift focus to his Cleveland Indians teammate, Carlos Carrasco, who has also experienced some bad fortune.
If getting hit in the face wasn't bad enough, last year's second-half phenom owns a 4.84 ERA despite his 10.70 K/9 ratio, 51.0 ground-ball percentage and 2.64 fielding independent pitching (FIP). When his .371 BABIP deteriorates, he'll remind everyone why he entered 2015 a popular Cy Young sleeper.
Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Come on. This is Clayton Kershaw. He's going to be fine. During the ace's "bad" start, he holds an 11.65 K/9 and 2.72 FIP. His last concerning start came inside Coors Field.
If his owner is willing to sell for 80 cents on the dollar due to a 4.24 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, pounce.
"I Told Him to Be Himself. That Was Pretty Mean I Guess"
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Everyonene's favorite lovable jerk, Roger Sterling delivers a treasure trove of clever yet usually offensive quotes. While very much the product of his time, he also flashes a softer side that makes it impossible for viewers to resent him.
A straight shooter, Roger would have no qualms eviscerating someone hitting .190 or sporting a 5.00 ERA. The type of person to freely say something everyone else bottles inside, he once challenged the notion of always being yourself. Sometimes yourself isn't good enough.
Nobody should be surprised by these disappointing starts, as all three players are typifying flaws that have always existed.
Evan Gattis, C, Houston Astros
A pure hacker, Evan Gattis still generates fantasy buzz as a catcher-eligible slugger with massive power upside. Despite a a career 5.2 walk and 23.2 strikeout percentage, he was drafted as a top-10 catcher capable of belting 30 dingers.
His six long balls place him on a healthy pace, but he's also hitting .194 with 34 strikeouts and four walks. The career .244 hitter should clear the Mendoza Line, but he'll always hinder a squad's average. A manager needing power, however, should field a low-ball offer to the league's frustrated Gattis owner.
Joe Mauer, 1B, Minnesota Twins
In mixed fantasy formats with standard categories, Joe Mauer is useless without the catcher designation. After ignoring his limited power for years, he's now waiver-wire fodder at first base.
The 32-year-old has yet to hit a home run or steal or base, not a major shock for someone with four homers and three steals last year. A .318 career hitter, he now posts an uninspiring .282 batting average with his lowest hard-hit percentage since 2011, when he batted .287.
Don't get fooled by name value. The former MVP is now essentially James Loney.
Fernando Rodney, RP, Seattle Mariners
Fernando Rodney is erratic, either unpredictably great or out of control. Don't mistake his 133 saves from 2012-14 as a sign of consistency.
So far, wild Rodney has showed up, allowing eight walks and nine earned runs through 14.1 innings. Proving the stat's silliness, he has collected nine saves through those foibles. Aroldis Chapman has seven saves with a 1.10 ERA and 14.88 K/9 ratio.
Because of his past "closer experience" and few poor outings costing the Seattle Mariners, Rodney is in no imminent danger of losing his ninth-inning gig. Given his stable job and high-strikeout prowess, owners will have to grind out his struggles and wait for better days.
Joan Harris All-Stars
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Joan Harris started as a smiling secretary content to play her role as an attractive woman for her male coworkers to ogle and her female peers to resent. Initially, her main purpose was playing Peggy's foil as someone without the desire to challenge the time's glaring inequality issues.
Fast-forward to now, and she has become a partner and no-nonsense boss who even terrifies Don. No longer will she submit to staying silent while less qualified men run the show.
No Mad Men character has experienced such a drastic metamorphosis, even if it appears to have caused her an unjust yet fitting conclusion. Like Christina Hendricks' character, these players have grown before our very eyes into top fantasy assets.
Manny Machado, 3B, Baltimore Orioles
Still 22 years old, Manny Machado has expedited his character development this season. Having blasted six homers through 34 games, he's well on his way to crushing his previous career high of 14.
Along with forming a true power stroke, Machado has torpedoed his walk rate to 9.2 percent, and he has capitalized on those added trips to the basepaths with five steals. He previously swiped 10 combined bags through three seasons.
This bears repeating: Machado is only 22. After some middling fantasy seasons, he's morphing into the upper-echelon infielder everyone projected him to become.
Chris Archer, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
Chris Archer was already a great pitcher when he netted a 3.33 ERA last season, but his 8.00 K/9, 3.33 B/9 and 1.28 WHIP trapped him in the middle tier of young hurlers.
This season, he has taken the leap to ace territory, posting a 2.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 10.73 K/9 rate. The 26-year-old has also boosted his ground-ball rate to 54.6 percent, a trend which will cement him as one this year's biggest draft-day steals if sustained.
Next Week on "Mad Men"
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Thought the episodes descriptions were gold? Week after week, no TV sitcom generates more laughs than the post-episode teasers.
Most "On the next..." clips generally pique a viewer's excitement by showing a tense conversation or a character in peril. On Mad Men, they're just random words that carry no meaning on their own. Things like "Hello" and "How are You?" and "What's going on?" One preview packs in more laughs than an entire season of The Big Bang Theory. (So, roughly two or three.)
Saying goodbye to these gems hurts almost as much as bidding adieu to the show itself. So let's look ahead to the rest of the MLB season without giving too much away.
Welcome
Prized prospect Noah Syndergaard made his MLB debut on Tuesday night, surrendering six hits, four walks and three runs through 5.1 innings. MLB.com's third-rated pitching prospect entering 2015 unraveled at the end of his initiation, but he also registered six punchouts.
While the New York Mets have a crowded rotation, Dillon Gee won't have his spot saved when he returns from the disabled list. It's Syndergaard's spot to lose, and Thor looks ready to drop the hammer on big league competition. Consider him in all formats.
Can You Shut the Door?
The Miami Marlins have stripped Steve Cishek of his ninth-inning duties after he blew four saves with a 10.32 ERA. Following four years of steady success, a few rough outings yanked the 28-year-old from favor.
Who gets the next crack at saves? While the Marlins have yet to commit to one reliever, A.J. Ramos is by far the best bet. Through 18 innings, he has allowed 14 baserunners and two runs, striking out 23. The 28-year-old spotlessly converted his first save opportunity, so grab him now if he's still floating around free agency.
Check the Calendar
Before panicking, remember that it's only May. There are four months left for numbers to even out. Hot starters will get exposed under the magnifying glass of a larger sample size. Slumping stars will get their act together before the season expires.
So take a deep breath. There's still plenty of time to rise up the standings. Already in first? Great, but your work is not over. Look for ways to expand that lead, and look objectively at your roster, as some players are likely performing over their heads.
As Don once said, "What’s happiness? It’s a moment before you need more happiness."
All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
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