American Pharoah's Updated Preakness Odds Before Post Positions Draw

The Kentucky Derby may be the Triple Crown race with the most pomp and circumstance, and the Belmont Stakes represents the longest and most grueling test.  But the Preakness Stakes trumps both in terms of drama, as the guarantee of a Triple Crown hopeful keeps both casual and hardcore racing fans alike compelled.

This year, the limelight shines squarely on American Pharoah, who followed through on his favored status to hang on down the stretch at Churchill Downs.  The Bob Baffert-trained horse did not necessarily run a dominant Derby showing, but given his prior pedigree, Pharoah looms as another legitimate candidate to break the 37-year Triple Crown drought.

Before Wednesday's post drawings, let's take a look at the updated Preakness odds courtesy of Odds Shark and draw-time information, while also highlighting some of the top storylines surrounding the Derby winner headed into the Run for the Black-Eyed Susans.

Horse	Odds
American Pharoah	5-6
Firing Line	5-1
Dortmund	11-2
Danzig Moon	25-1
Divining Rod	25-1
Bodhisattva	40-1
Grand Bili	50-1
Tale of Verve	50-1

2015 Preakness Stakes Post Draw Info

When: Wednesday, May 13

Time: 6 p.m. ET

Channel: HRTV

Live Stream: HRTV.com 

Top Storylines

Effect of Sloppy Track

After running on a relatively slow track at Louisville, many are anxious to see how American Pharoah might time out on a faster track.  Unfortunately, it doesn't appear as though he'll receive that chance at Pimlico Race Course, as rain and humid conditions are a distinct possibility:

In fairness, this doesn't necessarily indicate that the track will be sloppy on Saturday. Last year saw similar fears only to have the track clear up in time for California Chrome's victory.  Perhaps American Pharoah will catch the same break this year and have an opportunity to showcase a stronger closing finish than he exhibited at the Derby.

Regardless, a potentially sloppy track shouldn't be a huge deterrent.  As NJ.com's Keith Sargeant notes, Pharoah has only raced once on a rainy track, but it was also one of his most impressive career showings:

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American Pharoah has won five of his six lifetime starts, but his triumph in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark., might've been his most impressive performance.

Making his first start since Sept. 27, 2014, and racing for the first time outside his home state of California, American Pharoah beat six other horses in the 1 1/16-mile race on March 14.

But that didn't stop him from racing out to the lead, from moving to the inside and then galloping to easy fractions of :24 2/5 and :49 3/5 for the first half mile.

"

Pharoah ended up winning the Rebel Stakes by 6 ¼ lengths, his only Grade 2 stakes race.  Pharoah's four other graded stakes wins have all been Grade 1 races, a feat no other horse in the field can match.  Assuming the weather conditions don't play a huge part in derailing his Preakness hopes, the next question is what horse could most realistically pull the upset.

A Truncated Field

The Preakness field is always considerably smaller than the Derby—few horses are equipped to run after a mere two-week respite—but it appears there will be just eight horses at Pimlico, considerably narrowing the field of challengers.

Firing Line and Dortmund, the second- and third-place finishers at Churchill Downs, stand out as the clear biggest threats to Pharoah, as the odds above illustrate.  

Dortmund's front-running style could be particularly advantageous at the shortest Triple Crown race, while perpetual bridesmaid Firing Line is probably the best non-Baffert trained three-year-old in the world and seemingly on the verge of breaking through after three runner-ups in four career graded stakes starts.

However, the secondary challengers look considerably weaker after Todd Pletcher withdrew his horses, per the Courier-Journal's Jonathan Lintner, including Materiality, who had a strong closing kick at the Derby after getting trapped to start the race.  

Pletcher also opted to rest Carpe Diem, who disappointed at the Derby but figures to return for the Belmont.  Moreover, even though Pharoah failed to dominate the Derby field, history suggests that his close running means little in the long run:

Thus, it would be folly to extrapolate much from Pharoah's below-average Beyer Speed Figure at the Run for the Roses, per Daily Racing Form (h/t the Boston Globe).  

He'll face incessant stamina questions in the lead-up to the Belmont if he does capture the second leg, but that's no different from any other horse over the last 37 years.  For now, Pharoah's chances of going 2-of-2 have increased without the Pletcher-trained horses in the field.