Buying or Selling Roster Spots for Top Undrafted Free Agents
One of the most fascinating and shrouded aspects of the NFL draft is the signing of undrafted free agents. The entire process is a closely guarded secret, and it seems that every franchise approaches the process with a different philosophy.
The other fascinating aspect of the undrafted free agent is how many seemingly talented football players go undrafted. Obviously, this isn’t 1992 when teams have 12 rounds to choose prospects, so good players will always fall between the cracks.
But can these guys really make the final roster? Let’s take a look at nine talented college players who are climbing that hill to the league and decide whether to buy or sell them making the final roster.
As usual, all roster and depth chart data are courtesy of the talented, hardworking folks at Ourlads.
La'el Collins, OT LSU
1 of 9
One of the most bizarre storylines of the 2015 NFL draft centered on talented LSU tackle La’el Collins. Going into the draft, he was among the very best of the offensive line prospects. Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller had him as his No. 21 overall prospect.
However, just days before the draft, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that Collins was wanted for questioning in a shooting death. At no point was he considered a suspect in the death of Brittany Mills, but he did go to Baton Rouge to cooperate with the investigation.
This put Collins into draft limbo. Seven rounds came and went, and no team felt he was worth the risk of a draft pick. However, the Dallas Cowboys were one of the teams to court Collins after the draft, eventually convincing the talented lineman to sign a contract. Collins wanted a good team, and he got one.
Not only should Collins make the final roster for Dallas, but there’s also no reason he cannot win the starting job at left guard. The Cowboys have put together one of the most dominant offensive lines in all of the NFL, and adding Collins into the mix just makes them that much better.
Verdict: Buy
Dominique Brown, RB Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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One of the players the Tampa Bay Buccaneers targeted once the draft ended was former Louisville running back Dominique Brown. With Doug Martin as the feature back, it makes sense for head coach Lovie Smith to want another powerful running back to batter defenses for his rookie quarterback, Jameis Winston.
Can Brown make the roster? Absolutely. He runs hard with excellent leverage and a nice burst. It is that burst that makes the difference, because if you run hard but slow, you are still breaking tackles in the backfield. The Buccaneers have a nice stable of running backs, but in the worst-case scenario the Buccaneers stash Brown away on the practice squad and hope another team doesn’t snatch him up.
Verdict: Buy
Wes Saxton, TE New York Jets
3 of 9
When some players aren’t drafted, it makes no sense. That was true of South Alabama tight end Wes Saxton. His athletic potential alone appeared to make him worth a late-round flier. Granted, Saxton’s 2014 film wasn’t great, but if a team went back to 2013, it would see the big-play potential he has.
The New York Jets signed Saxton, which is good news and bad news for him. The Jets are putting together a talented group of skill-position players, which should improve the offense across the board. However, the tight end depth chart appears to be stocked with Jeff Cumberland, Jace Amaro and Zach Sudfeld, and so getting to that final 53 is a serious long shot for Saxton. That doesn’t preclude him from making a roster in 2015, but I’m not sure New York is the place.
Verdict: Sell
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Derrick Lott, DT Tennessee Titans
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It makes sense that the Tennessee Titans would sign local star Derrick Lott as an undrafted free agent. The former Tennessee-Chattanooga defensive tackle flashed tremendous potential on film, but concerns over his ability to reproduce that production against top-level production kept him from being drafted.
With the Titans utilizing a base 3-4 defense, Lott makes a ton of sense. At 6’4”, 314 pounds, he has the size for a 5-technique defensive end, but he could also slide inside as a 3-technique tackle in sub-packages or even for spot duty at nose tackle. Depending on how many defensive linemen the Titans keep, Lott could find himself firmly on the bubble right down to the final cuts.
Verdict: Sell
Mike Reilly, DE Cleveland Browns
5 of 9
When you are a small-school guy, the journey to the NFL is rocky. For a player like defensive end Mike Reilly, William & Mary might as well be a million miles from Cleveland. However, the Browns saw enough of the downright scary athletic potential of Reilly and felt like he was worth the risk.
Can Reilly and his 22.5 sacks in two years translate to the NFL? I believe they can, but is that enough to make the Browns roster? If the goal is to win that backup outside linebacker spot behind Barkevious Mingo, he absolutely can. It isn’t ideal to have rookies at both backup outside linebacker spots (as second-round pick Nate Orchard is destined for one of those spots), but it could work.
Verdict: Buy
Cody Prewitt, S Tennessee Titans
6 of 9
Put me firmly in the group of those confused as to how 14 safeties could be drafted and none of them was Mississippi's Cody Prewitt. While his speed is far from ideal, it is still hard to imagine a player with his natural skills and feel for the game go undrafted.
However, the Tennessee Titans recognized his potential and brought him in to compete for a spot in their defensive secondary. Looking at the talent on the roster now, there is room for Prewitt. Starters Da’Norris Searcy and Michael Griffin are entrenched at this point, but Prewitt could be a value backup at both free and strong safety.
Verdict: Buy
Xavier Williams, NT Arizona Cardinals
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Of all the players on this list, former Northern Iowa defensive tackle Xavier Williams might be the one to not only stick with a roster but see significant reps. He has the type of build that lends itself to playing inside or outside in a base 3-4 defense like the one the Arizona Cardinals employ.
Williams has an opportunity to be part of a rotation at both defensive end and defensive tackle. In particular, if he can beef up a little, he could start at nose tackle. Alameda Ta’amu won't hold off any player with the strength and athleticism of Williams if that player learns the ins and outs of Arizona's defense quickly.
Verdict: Buy
Tony Washington, LB Houston Texans
8 of 9
Anything the Houston Texans can do to help improve their pass rush, they have to do it. Other than defensive end J.J. Watt, there hasn’t been much to get excited about in terms of pressure. Houston drafted linebacker Benardrick McKinney in 2015, but he is stronger in run support and coverage than as a pass-rush specialist.
So adding former Oregon linebacker Tony Washington makes a lot of sense. He was a disruptive player at Oregon and was asked to pressure the quarterback from all over the field. Washington’s speed and burst aren’t such that he is going to win off the edge and be the first to the quarterback; however, he’s an excellent closer and figures out a way to the football, especially on broken plays. With guys like Watt and linebacker Jadeveon Clowney drawing attention, Washington could end up with some nice statistics.
Verdict: Buy
Kasen Williams, WR Seattle Seahawks
9 of 9
If you look at prospects over the long term, few fell further off the map from 2012 to 2014 than Washington wide receiver Kasen Williams. In 2012, the Washington star caught 77 balls for 878 yards and six touchdowns. This is a remarkable feat when you consider just how anemic the Huskies offense was with Keith Price at quarterback.
However, over the next two seasons everything went wrong for Williams, which resulted in him going undrafted. This was to the benefit of the Seattle Seahawks, who are not shy about bringing in undrafted wide receivers. In Super Bowl XLIX quarterback Russell Wilson completed 11 passes to wide receivers, and none of them was drafted. Even with the addition of Tyler Lockett, Williams will have every opportunity to make this team.
Verdict: Buy
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