2015 NBA Mock Draft: 1st-Round Predictions, Prospects Who Are Safest Bets
Every year, the NBA draft is a crapshoot. Even guys like Michael Jordan and LeBron James weren't guaranteed to deliver, and maybe they wouldn't have in different situations.
Heading into the 2015 NBA draft, general managers will try to mitigate risk as much as possible in the first round. Some prospects obviously carry much more variance in terms of where they could be in five years.
For the three players below, the level of deviation with their boom-or-bust potential shouldn't be nearly as high. Maybe they don't pan out, and in the event they do, they should still produce at a level high enough to contribute meaningful minutes to an NBA team.
2015 Mock Draft
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky |
| 2 | New York Knicks | Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke |
| 3 | Philadelphia 76ers | D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State |
| 4 | Los Angeles Lakers | Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China |
| 5 | Orlando Magic | Justise Winslow, SF, Duke |
| 6 | Sacramento Kings | Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona |
| 8 | Detroit Pistons | Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C, Latvia |
| 9 | Charlotte Hornets | Mario Hezonja, SG/SF, Croatia |
| 10 | Miami Heat | Frank Kaminsky, PF/C, Wisconsin |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | Myles Turner, PF/C, Texas |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns | Kelly Oubre Jr., SF, Kansas |
| 14 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky |
| 15 | Atlanta Hawks (via Brooklyn Nets) | Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin |
| 16 | Boston Celtics | Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA |
| 17 | Milwaukee Bucks | R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State |
| 18 | Houston Rockets (via New Orleans Pelicans) | Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame |
| 19 | Washington Wizards | Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas |
| 20 | Toronto Raptors | Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State |
| 21 | Dallas Mavericks | Delon Wright, PG/SG, Utah |
| 22 | Chicago Bulls | Tyus Jones, PG, Duke |
| 23 | Portland Trail Blazers | Christian Wood, PF, UNLV |
| 24 | Cleveland Cavaliers | Andrew Harrison, PG, Kentucky |
| 25 | Memphis Grizzlies | Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville |
| 26 | San Antonio Spurs | Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas |
| 27 | Los Angeles Lakers (via Houston Rockets) | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona |
| 28 | Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers) | Justin Anderson, SF, Virginia |
| 29 | Brooklyn Nets (via Atlanta Hawks) | Jarell Martin, PF, LSU |
| 30 | Golden State Warriors | Joseph Young, SG, Oregon |
Safest First-Round Bets
No. 1, Minnesota Timberwolves: Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky
Both Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor can stake a claim for the No. 1 spot in this year's draft class, but in reality, it's a one-horse race. Towns is the more athletic of the two and much better on the defensive end.
There's little not to like about Towns' game.
He may not be Okafor's equal in the post, but his game revolves around more than getting the ball right under the basket and dunking it. Towns (6'11", 250 lbs) is a very good shooter for his size, which will give opposing teams even more headaches when trying to defend him.
Defensively, Towns is a beast. According to Sports-Reference.com, he averaged 4.3 blocks per 40 minutes, and the Kentucky Wildcats had a defensive rating of 78.1 when he was on the floor.
Drafting a big man in the top five has been a bit of a mixed bag in the past. For every Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, there's a Greg Oden or Jonas Valanciunas. It's still too early to make any definitive judgment about guys such as Alex Len, Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid.
Towns definitely comes with some risk, but barring a catastrophic injury, he should be the NBA's next dominant center.
No. 5, Orlando Magic: Justise Winslow, SF, Duke
This tweet from ESPN Stats & Info pretty much sums up Justise Winslow in a nutshell:
Calling a player a jack of all trades is a bit cliche, but it genuinely applies to Winslow. He can affect a game in so many different areas that he doesn't need to score in a high volume to become an All-Star.
Grantland's Andrew Sharp couldn't get over Winslow's combination of size and athleticism when watching the NCAA tournament:
"The best thing I can say about Winslow is that every time he plays basketball, I’m worried he’s going to hurt someone. He careers up and down the court, and he explodes into plays out of nowhere. It’s a public safety hazard. Imagine Jimmy Butler’s frame crossed with Russell Westbrook’s disregard for human limits. That is Justise Winslow.
"
Of course, one of the biggest questions about Winslow is whether he can become a reliable shooter in the NBA. He averaged 48.6 percent from the field and 41.8 percent from deep while at Duke. Those percentages aren't terrible, but they aren't necessarily great, either.
It might be appropriate to highlight that Kawhi Leonard shot just 25 percent from deep in his two years at San Diego State but has grown into a very good shooter in the NBA.
Maybe he can get some tips from Carmelo Anthony:
The beauty of Winslow is that even if he remains right where he is as a shooter, you're still looking at great perimeter defender and solid rebounder for his size (6'6", 225 lbs). Any team would love to have a player like that on its roster.
No. 4, Los Angeles Lakers: Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China
You generally don't see 6'5" point guards with the combination of size and athleticism that Emmanuel Mudiay possesses. The 19-year-old is the perfect kind of multifaceted point guard to fit in today's NBA.
Of course, Mudiay remains a somewhat unknown quantity since he has played in China for the last year and missed some time with an injury while overseas. Dave Miller of Time Warner Cable SportsNet made the argument, though, that Mudiay is still well-versed with American basketball:
Chris Daniels played with Mudiay in China and couldn't praise the teenager enough, per ESPN.com's Jeff Goodman:
"I'd never heard of him before. I looked at a couple clips and the adjustment he has made has been unbelievable coming from high school. He has the size and ability to go by his man at any time, but he's let the offense come to him. He's setting up everyone else. He's on a veteran team, and he's making sure everyone else is happy.
"
Los Angeles Lakers fans would surely be over the moon if Mudiay fell into the team's lap on draft night.
Having the chance to draft Mudiay might also would also seemingly cool the Lakers on the idea of signing Rajon Rondo, which would be a catastrophic mistake given how he performed this past year. The league is passing Rondo by, and he's unable to adapt to his surroundings.
As great as it would be to see Rondo and Kobe Bryant scowling at one another for an entire season, the prospect of adding Mudiay would surely outweigh potentially bringing on the headache that would be Rondo.
