Who Has the Best Starting Rotation in MLB Today?
One of the biggest storylines of the MLB offseason was the Washington Nationals rotation, a group many expected to be nothing short of a juggernaut after Max Scherzer was signed in free agency.
While their staff has been solid so far, it's not been the best in baseball through a month-and-a-half of play.
So that brings up the question, who has the best starting rotation as things currently stand?
A few different factors went into answering that question:
- Performance: A rotation's performance to this point, in particular where it ranks in terms of ERA and quality starts, was the first step in narrowing down the list.
- Present over Future: The point of this article was to determine which team has the best starting rotation on May 13, not to attempt to predict who will have the best staff when the season comes to an end. Current standing trumped long-term outlook.
- Injuries: That being said, if a team recently lost a key starter (like the Tampa Bay Rays did with Drew Smyly), that obviously counted against its current standing.
- Balance over Top Heavy: A team with solid options in the rotation 1-5 topped a team with a pair of front-line arms at the top but question marks at the back end of the staff. With that in mind, you won't see teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers or Houston Astros on the following list.
Hopefully that clarifies what we're looking for in naming the best starting rotation. Let's kick things off with a handful of others that received consideration before diving into the top 10.
Others Receiving Consideration
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Chicago Cubs (12-9, 3.96 ERA, 16/32 QS)
Jon Lester is rounding into form, and Jake Arrieta has proved his 2014 breakout was no fluke, but the back of the rotation is still a work in progress for the Cubs, with Kyle Hendricks and Travis Wood struggling early.
Detroit Tigers (15-10, 3.92 ERA, 19/33 QS)
The Tigers rotation has been as good as anyone could have hoped considering Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello departed in free agency and Justin Verlander has yet to throw a pitch in the majors in 2015. However, with Shane Greene falling off significantly after his hot start and Anibal Sanchez still struggling, it ranks outside the top 10.
Houston Astros (11-11, 4.15 ERA, 19/33 QS)
The one-two punch of Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh is for real, and the rotation as a whole has turned in an impressive 19 quality starts. However, the No. 5 starter spot remains a revolving door, and Scott Feldman has not been the steady veteran presence he was a year ago.
Los Angeles Dodgers (14-5, 3.76 ERA, 16/32 QS)
The Dodgers rotation has a chance to be one of the best in baseball, but with Hyun-jin Ryu still on the mend and Brandon McCarthy out for the season, it is still sorting things out behind Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke.
New York Yankees (14-9, 3.93 ERA, 12/34 QS)
Michael Pineda is a stud, and Chase Whitley and Adam Warren have done a commendable job stepping into the rotation. However, the team has managed just 12 quality starts in 34 games, and it still obviously misses Masahiro Tanaka.
Tampa Bay Rays (10-11, 3.57 ERA, 14/34 QS)
The Rays have the best starters' ERA in the American League, but they've managed just 14 quality starts in 33 games. Couple that with the recent news that Drew Smyly and Alex Cobb are both lost for the season, and it's impossible to call this one of the 10 best rotations in baseball, even with what it's accomplished to this point.
Texas Rangers (8-14, 3.77 ERA, 16/33 QS)
Losing Yu Darvish and Derek Holland was obviously a huge blow, and the staff struggled in April, but it has been surprisingly effective in May. How long can Nick Martinez and Wandy Rodriguez keep it up?
10. Miami Marlins
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Starting Pitcher Stats/Ranks
Wins: 10 (21st in MLB)
ERA: 3.82 (12th in MLB)
QS%: 52.0 percent (18/34)
| Mat Latos | 7 | 3 | 1-3 | 4.72 | 1.485 | 14 | 28 | 34.1 |
| Tom Koehler | 7 | 3 | 2-3 | 4.62 | 1.308 | 15 | 28 | 39.0 |
| Dan Haren | 7 | 4 | 4-2 | 3.70 | 1.089 | 8 | 28 | 41.1 |
| Jarred Cosart | 6 | 3 | 1-3 | 3.67 | 1.107 | 11 | 20 | 34.1 |
| David Phelps | 5 | 4 | 2-0 | 1.80 | 1.067 | 9 | 18 | 30.0 |
| Other Starters | GS | QS | W-L | ERA | WHIP | BB | K | IP |
| Henderson Alvarez | 2 | 1 | 0-2 | 4.50 | 1.167 | 1 | 5 | 12.0 |
The Good
No Jose Fernandez. No Henderson Alvarez. Yet the Miami Marlins still sneak into the top 10 in these rankings, which speaks volumes to their upside as the season progresses.
At one point, it looked like Dan Haren was going to retire rather than pitch for the Marlins, but the team is awfully happy he changed his mind, as he's quietly been the Marlins' best starter so far this year.
This group is clearly lacking a staff ace as things currently stand, but it has five solid starters capable of turning in a quality start night in and night out, and that certainly counts for something.
The Bad
Mat Latos ended the month of April with an 0-3 record and a bloated 6.86 ERA, but he's turned in back-to-back quality starts at the start of May. He's the guy the team needs to step into the role of staff ace, and he's more than capable of doing it if he can build off of his recent success.
Meanwhile, Jarred Cosart (0-2, 7.00 ERA) is headed in the opposite direction so far this month.
9. San Diego Padres
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Starting Pitcher Stats/Ranks
Wins: 12 (ninth in MLB)
ERA: 3.99 (16th in MLB)
QS%: 64.7 percent (22/34)
| James Shields | 7 | 5 | 4-0 | 4.25 | 1.252 | 12 | 55 | 42.1 |
| Tyson Ross | 7 | 4 | 1-3 | 3.98 | 1.525 | 23 | 48 | 40.2 |
| Andrew Cashner | 7 | 5 | 1-6 | 3.07 | 1.227 | 11 | 45 | 44.0 |
| Ian Kennedy | 5 | 2 | 2-2 | 5.92 | 1.479 | 8 | 20 | 24.1 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | 3 | 2 | 2-1 | 5.30 | 1.232 | 5 | 9 | 18.2 |
| Other Starters | GS | QS | W-L | ERA | WHIP | BB | K | IP |
| Brandon Morrow | 5 | 4 | 2-0 | 2.73 | 1.091 | 7 | 23 | 33.0 |
The Good
That 16th-ranked ERA may not look great, but the San Diego Padres lead baseball with 22 quality starts, as they have continually put their improved offense in a position to win the game.
The trio of James Shields, Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner have provided far more good than bad at the top, and it's hard to believe Cashner is just 1-6 given his peripheral numbers.
Odrisamer Despaigne was terrific in his first two spot starts (2-0, 1.98 ERA) before getting shelled his last time out, but he remains an important piece of the puzzle.
The Bad
After posting a 2.90 ERA in April, James Shields has allowed five earned runs in each of his past two starts, though he managed to pick up the win in both games.
Brandon Morrow had looked like the reclamation project of the year through his first five starts, but a shoulder injury landed him on the disabled list. Given his injury history, that could just be the start of another injury-plagued year.
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8. Los Angeles Angels
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Starting Pitcher Stats/Ranks
Wins: 11 (13th in MLB)
ERA: 3.77 (ninth in MLB)
QS%: 57.6 percent (19/33)
| Jered Weaver | 7 | 3 | 1-4 | 4.98 | 1.292 | 5 | 21 | 43.1 |
| C.J. Wilson | 7 | 5 | 2-2 | 2.63 | 1.000 | 11 | 33 | 48.0 |
| Hector Santiago | 6 | 3 | 2-2 | 2.57 | 1.286 | 18 | 31 | 35.0 |
| Matt Shoemaker | 6 | 3 | 2-3 | 6.61 | 1.340 | 7 | 31 | 31.1 |
| Garrett Richards | 5 | 4 | 3-1 | 2.27 | 1.074 | 16 | 29 | 31.2 |
| Other Starters | GS | QS | W-L | ERA | WHIP | BB | K | IP |
| Nick Tropeano | 1 | 1 | 1-0 | 0.00 | 1.000 | 1 | 5 | 6.0 |
| Drew Rucinski | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 13.50 | 3.745 | 4 | 0 | 2.2 |
The Good
Starting pitching was far from a strength for the Los Angeles Angels a year ago, as it was the league's highest-scoring offense that was the driving force behind the team posting the best record in baseball. However, the Angels have leaned more heavily on their pitching this season, and to this point, their staff has been among the best in the American League.
C.J. Wilson and Hector Santiago are both off to terrific starts, while Garrett Richards has quickly rounded into form after beginning the year on the disabled list, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning his last time out.
The overall numbers from Jered Weaver don't look great, but he too is hitting his stride, as he twirled a six-hit shutout against the Houston Astros in his last start.
The Bad
The first four starters in the rotation are enough to earn the Angels a spot in these rankings, but the fifth guy, Matt Shoemaker, has been nothing short of terrible. The right-hander was 16-4 with a 3.04 ERA last season to finish second in AL Rookie of the Year voting, but he's struggled mightily this season, surrendering an AL-high 10 home runs already.
A 6.19 FIP does not give much hope for a quick turnaround moving forward, but he was too good last year to give up on just yet.
7. San Francisco Giants
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Starting Pitcher Stats/Ranks
Wins: 11 (13th in MLB)
ERA: 3.71 (seventh in MLB)
QS%: 60.6 percent (20/33)
| Madison Bumgarner | 7 | 4 | 3-2 | 3.30 | 1.099 | 8 | 42 | 43.2 |
| Tim Lincecum | 6 | 4 | 3-2 | 2.00 | 1.194 | 14 | 28 | 36.0 |
| Chris Heston | 7 | 5 | 3-3 | 2.91 | 1.165 | 10 | 39 | 46.1 |
| Tim Hudson | 6 | 4 | 1-3 | 4.50 | 1.325 | 9 | 19 | 40.0 |
| Ryan Vogelsong | 5 | 3 | 1-2 | 5.20 | 1.048 | 8 | 21 | 27.2 |
| Other Starters | GS | QS | W-L | ERA | WHIP | BB | K | IP |
| Jake Peavy | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 9.39 | 2.087 | 4 | 7 | 7.2 |
The Good
After posting a 5.29 ERA in his first three starts, ace Madison Bumgarner is 2-1 with a 2.03 ERA and .180 opponents' batting average in his last four starts, as he's again pitching like one of the best in the game.
Tim Lincecum, who has lost his spot in the rotation last year, has been terrific, and with a 3.13 FIP, there is no huge regression red flag to this point.
Rookie Chris Heston, the team's No. 25 prospect entering the year, according to the Baseball America Prospect Handbook, has been nothing short of a savior for this staff while filling in for the injured Jake Peavy. With a low walk rate and a 3.03 FIP, his hot start could be legit.
The Bad
An All-Star after going 7-6 with a 2.87 ERA in the first half last year, veteran Tim Hudson followed that up with 2-7 record and 4.73 ERA after the break. The 39-year-old has put up similarly uninspired numbers so far this year, and given his age, this may be as good as it gets from him.
Ryan Vogelsong has strung together consecutive quality starts, but the 37-year-old is far from consistent. Getting both Peavy and Matt Cain healthy remains a priority.
6. Oakland Athletics
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Starting Pitcher Stats/Ranks
Wins: 11 (13th in MLB)
ERA: 3.66 (sixth in MLB)
QS%: 48.6 percent (17/35)
| Sonny Gray | 7 | 6 | 4-0 | 1.65 | 1.000 | 15 | 44 | 49.0 |
| Scott Kazmir | 7 | 6 | 2-1 | 2.78 | 1.059 | 16 | 43 | 45.1 |
| Drew Pomeranz | 7 | 2 | 2-3 | 4.66 | 1.241 | 11 | 30 | 38.2 |
| Jesse Hahn | 6 | 1 | 1-3 | 4.73 | 1.299 | 7 | 20 | 32.1 |
| Jesse Chavez | 4 | 2 | 1-3 | 3.24 | 1.040 | 9 | 23 | 25.0 |
| Other Starters | GS | QS | W-L | ERA | WHIP | BB | K | IP |
| Kendall Graveman | 4 | 0 | 1-2 | 8.27 | 2.020 | 9 | 7 | 16.1 |
The Good
There might not be a better one-two punch in baseball than Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir right now. Gray in particular has continued to get better, establishing himself as not just one of the best young pitchers in the game, but one of the best starters in the game period.
Jesse Chavez shuffled between the rotation and bullpen last season, and he's stepped in for the struggling Kendall Graveman and done a solid job solidifying the back of the staff.
The Bad
Remove the four rough starts from Graveman before Chavez replaced him, and the current starting five has a 3.27 ERA over 31 starts.
Jesse Hahn and Drew Pomeranz both have relatively short track records of success prior to this year, so it's unclear what to expect from them going forward. Both are capable of being plus starters, though.
There was some hope that Jarrod Parker could provide the team with a shot in the arm around midseason, when he was expected to return from Tommy John surgery, but a fractured elbow now has him sidelined indefinitely.
5. Cincinnati Reds
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Starting Pitcher Stats/Ranks
Wins: 11 (13th in MLB)
ERA: 3.42 (fourth in MLB)
QS%: 51.5 percent (17/33)
| Johnny Cueto | 7 | 4 | 3-3 | 2.98 | 0.877 | 8 | 47 | 51.1 |
| Mike Leake | 7 | 5 | 2-1 | 2.36 | 0.966 | 12 | 28 | 49.2 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | 6 | 3 | 2-3 | 2.50 | 1.111 | 15 | 27 | 36.0 |
| Jason Marquis | 6 | 3 | 3-2 | 5.66 | 1.514 | 10 | 28 | 35.0 |
| Michael Lorenzen | 3 | 1 | 1-1 | 2.81 | 1.625 | 8 | 11 | 16.0 |
| Other Starters | GS | QS | W-L | ERA | WHIP | BB | K | IP |
| Homer Bailey | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 5.56 | 1.765 | 4 | 3 | 11.1 |
| Raisel Iglesias | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 5.40 | 1.400 | 2 | 4 | 5.0 |
The Good
We all know about Reds ace Johnny Cueto and just how good he is, but the rest of the rotation has been far better than expected after the team parted ways with Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon in the offseason and Homer Bailey was lost for the year (Tommy John surgery).
Mike Leake has been a solid back-of-the-rotation arm for the past several years, but in a contract year, he's improved behind Cueto.
It's the performance of a pair of rookies in Anthony DeSclafani and recently Michael Lorenzen that has really made the difference, though, as they have solidified what could have been a real mess at the back of the rotation.
The Bad
You can't help but feel like the team is walking on thin ice trotting 36-year-old Jason Marquis out there every fifth day. How much longer can he keep doing just enough to hold onto his spot in the rotation?
4. St. Louis Cardinals
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Starting Pitcher Stats/Ranks
Wins: 14 (third in MLB)
ERA: 3.27 (third in MLB)
QS%: 62.5 percent (20/32)
| Lance Lynn | 7 | 4 | 2-3 | 3.27 | 1.282 | 14 | 51 | 41.1 |
| Michael Wacha | 6 | 5 | 5-0 | 2.09 | 1.034 | 8 | 19 | 38.2 |
| John Lackey | 6 | 4 | 2-1 | 3.20 | 1.169 | 9 | 28 | 39.1 |
| Carlos Martinez | 6 | 4 | 3-1 | 5.03 | 1.470 | 17 | 34 | 34.0 |
| Tyler Lyons | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 4.82 | 1.500 | 3 | 12 | 9.1 |
| Other Starters | GS | QS | W-L | ERA | WHIP | BB | K | IP |
| Adam Wainwright | 4 | 3 | 2-1 | 1.44 | 1.040 | 3 | 18 | 25.0 |
| Tim Cooney | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 11.57 | 3.429 | 1 | 3 | 2.1 |
The Good
A healthy Michael Wacha is putting together the breakout season many predicted for him a year ago, and with Adam Wainwright lost for the year, he's stepped into the role of co-ace alongside Lance Lynn. Lynn, who inked a three-year, $22 million extension in the offseason, really came into his own last year and is one of the more underrated pitchers in the National League.
And with a salary of just over $500,000 this year, there might not be a better post-arbitration bargain in baseball right now than John Lackey.
The Bad
Not many teams can stand to lose their ace, let alone a pitcher of Wainwright's caliber, and at this point, the Cardinals are still in the process of figuring out who replaces him. Tyler Lyons has been passable in his two starts, while Marco Gonzales and Jaime Garcia are both in the process of rehabbing in Triple-A.
Losing Wainwright makes the recent struggles of Carlos Martinez, who had a 1.73 ERA through his first five starts but has allowed 14 earned runs in nine innings over his last two, all the more concerning.
3. Washington Nationals
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Starting Pitcher Stats/Ranks
Wins: 12 (ninth in MLB)
ERA: 3.77 (ninth in MLB)
QS%: 61.8 percent (21/34)
| Max Scherzer | 7 | 6 | 3-3 | 1.99 | 0.926 | 6 | 55 | 49.2 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | 7 | 6 | 2-2 | 4.20 | 1.352 | 9 | 24 | 40.2 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 7 | 1 | 2-4 | 6.06 | 1.710 | 11 | 35 | 35.2 |
| Doug Fister | 6 | 4 | 2-1 | 2.87 | 1.248 | 9 | 17 | 37.2 |
| Gio Gonzalez | 6 | 4 | 3-2 | 3.62 | 1.446 | 14 | 39 | 37.1 |
| Other Starters | GS | QS | W-L | ERA | WHIP | BB | K | IP |
| A.J. Cole | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 18.00 | 5.000 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 |
The Good
It's hard to say someone is really worth $210 million, but it's fair to say the Nationals have not regretted signing Max Scherzer to that seven-year deal so far. Behind him, Jordan Zimmermann has rounded into form after a rocky start, and the veteran duo of Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez has been rock solid, with four quality starts each in six total appearances.
Prospect A.J. Cole received the call when the team needed a spot start, but the Nats do still have 15-game winner Tanner Roark available in the bullpen as depth should someone go down for an extended period of time.
The Bad
What's wrong with Stephen Strasburg?
After allowing eight hits and seven earned runs in 3.1 innings on Tuesday night, his ERA has ballooned to 6.06, putting him 57th among 59 qualified NL starters. A 3.47 FIP and a .398 BABIP (via FanGraphs) are good indications that he's dealt with some bad luck and better days are ahead, but that doesn't make his rough start any easier to swallow.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates
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Starting Pitcher Stats/Ranks
Wins: 13 (seventh in MLB)
ERA: 3.11 (first in MLB)
QS%: 60.6 percent (20/33)
| Gerrit Cole | 7 | 5 | 5-1 | 2.32 | 1.125 | 12 | 45 | 42.2 |
| A.J. Burnett | 7 | 6 | 1-1 | 1.60 | 1.156 | 13 | 36 | 45.0 |
| Francisco Liriano | 6 | 4 | 1-2 | 2.79 | 0.931 | 16 | 44 | 38.2 |
| Jeff Locke | 6 | 3 | 2-2 | 4.71 | 1.349 | 11 | 26 | 36.1 |
| Vance Worley | 6 | 2 | 2-2 | 4.63 | 1.543 | 13 | 23 | 35.0 |
| Other Starters | GS | QS | W-L | ERA | WHIP | BB | K | IP |
| Casey Sadler | 1 | 0 | 1-0 | 3.60 | 1.000 | 1 | 5 | 5.0 |
The Good
That decision to bring back A.J. Burnett on a one-year, $8.5 million deal is looking awfully good through the first month-and-a-half of the season. His 1.60 ERA is currently second in the National League.
Re-signing Francisco Liriano was also a wise move, as he's again been one of the more dominant left-handed starters in the game. His 0.931 WHIP is fourth in the NL, and his 10.2 K/9 is good for sixth.
Perhaps the biggest positive of all, though, has been the early performance of right-hander Gerrit Cole. The 24-year-old is finally looking the part of staff ace, showing the all-around game that made him the No. 1 pick in the 2011 draft.
The Bad
As expected, Jeff Locke and Vance Worley have both taken a step back from their surprisingly productive 2014 form. However, help is on the way in the form of right-hander Charlie Morton. He's been on the rehab trail following offseason hip surgery, but he could be ready to supplant one of those two (likely Worley) in the rotation before too long.
1. New York Mets
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Starting Pitcher Stats/Ranks
Wins: 17 (first in MLB)
ERA: 3.15 (second in MLB)
QS%: 60.6 percent (20/33)
| Bartolo Colon | 7 | 5 | 6-1 | 3.30 | 0.993 | 1 | 40 | 46.1 |
| Jacob deGrom | 7 | 4 | 3-4 | 3.46 | 1.320 | 12 | 37 | 41.2 |
| Matt Harvey | 6 | 5 | 5-1 | 2.72 | 0.958 | 5 | 38 | 39.2 |
| Jon Niese | 6 | 4 | 3-2 | 1.95 | 1.432 | 11 | 25 | 37.0 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 5.06 | 1.875 | 4 | 6 | 5.1 |
| Other Starters | GS | QS | W-L | ERA | WHIP | BB | K | IP |
| Dillon Gee | 5 | 2 | 0-2 | 3.86 | 1.352 | 8 | 20 | 30.1 |
| Rafael Montero | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 4.76 | 1.058 | 1 | 6 | 5.2 |
The Good
Matt Harvey has shown no ill effects in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, while ageless wonder Bartolo Colon was the first NL pitcher to six wins and has solid peripherals to boot.
Noah Syndergaard made his big league debut Tuesday after going 3-0 with a 1.82 ERA and 10.3 K/9 in five starts in Triple-A. He took the loss, but he showed plenty of what made him one of the top pitching prospects in baseball entering the year.
Jon Niese (1.95 ERA, 3.83 FIP) is a prime regression candidate, and Jacob deGrom has not been nearly as dominant as he was as a rookie, but both guys have still pitched well to this point.
The Bad
Losing Zack Wheeler was a big blow for this team, but the Mets have unrivaled depth in the starting pitching department.
Once Dillon Gee gets healthy, it will be interesting to see how he fits back into the team's plans, as there's a good chance Syndergaard is here to stay.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.
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