MLB Trades Teams Should Make Well Before July Deadline
The July 31 non-waiver trade deadline is a time for suspense and thrills.
Major League Baseball’s implementation of a second wild-card berth in each league means more teams with postseason hopes and more buyers at the deadline. News breaks fast and often during that time of the summer.
However, because there are more teams vying for playoff spots and more front offices bidding to add pieces, it is all the more reason for certain moves to be made soon rather than at or around the deadline. For buying clubs, it is a way to avoid the logjam of competitors and integrate their trade targets ahead of schedule. For sellers, it’s a way to maximize returns.
The season is barely a month old, but we have already seen teams with clear needs because of underperformance or injuries. We have also seen teams play below expectations, forcing them to become potential sellers.
As for the players, some are in-season rentals in contract years. Others have more time remaining on their contracts but are wasting productive years with non-contending teams. All are prime trade candidates.
And again, it makes the most sense for all of these moves to be made well before the July 31 trade deadline.
Dodgers Move for a Rotation Piece
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When the season started, it seemed like the Dodgers would just be piling onto the rest of the National League West with this kind of deal. Five weeks in, it is more of a necessity for the division favorite.
Hyun-Jin Ryu is still dealing with a debilitating shoulder issue that has landed him on the 60-day disabled list. Brandon McCarthy is out for the season after Tommy John surgery, and ace Clayton Kershaw has looked almost nothing like one through his first six starts. Injuries to Yasiel Puig and Carl Crawford are also hurting the Dodgers' offensive production, making the need for run-prevention more obvious.
This means the Dodgers, who have absorbed these hits well for the most part, are players in the starting-pitcher market. Names like Scott Kazmir, Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija would be rental options who likely would not cost the Dodgers top-flight prospects, although the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago White Sox might need to be enticed to part with Cueto and Samardzija, respectively, as they still see themselves in the race for now.
Cole Hamels is another possible target, but while the Dodgers are not prepared to call any of their top prospects untouchable, they do not want to part with them. And it will undoubtedly cost at least two of them to land Hamels.
“We'll take some time and focus internally right now,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said last month after McCarthy got hurt. “Then we'll wake up in June having scouted other organizations throughout the next four-to-six weeks and figure out where to go from there.”
An End to the Cole Hamels Saga
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If Cole Hamels is still in the Philadelphia Phillies rotation come the deadline, he will have been engulfed in a full year of nonstop trade rumors. This is completely due to the team’s high asking price, which is not likely to budge considering the Boston Red Sox have an awful rotation and the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals have been weakened by pitching injuries.
While Hamels has expressed a desire to play for a contender, the general consensus from executives is the Phillies are demanding too much in return, and according to ESPN’s Buster Olney, some executives believe that is a mistake on Philadelphia’s part:
"When you talk with evaluators with other teams, they really believe the Phillies, to this point, have been asking for too much. No. 1, when you talk to general managers around baseball, they say it’s a lot easier now in 2015 to find pitching than in 2005 or even 2010 because offensive numbers have gone down.
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Two, pitching is seen as being an unreliable commodity more and more because of these elbow injuries we’re seeing. ... And No. 3, and this should be a big factor in how the Phillies are thinking: If the Phillies were to hang on to Hamels beyond July 31 this year, past the trade deadline, then in the fall if they were to try to trade Hamels, his market value would go way down because the free-agent class [of starting pitchers] is going to be absolutely loaded.
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Those points have been made repeatedly since last season, and even though the Red Sox have had one of MLB’s worst rotations and injuries have struck contenders, the Phillies are likely to extract more in a trade if they make it sooner rather than later.
Don’t hold your breath, though, as general manager Ruben Amaro Jr.'s legacy appears to be riding on this Hamels deal.
The Milwaukee Brewers Fire Sale
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The Brewers have already fired their manager and have been hit with injuries to their best players, the pitching is terrible and this is more than just a poor start. Over the team’s last 109 games dating back to last June, it is 41-68.
This is not just a September collapse or an April swoon. The Brewers are not built to contend, and while general manager Doug Melvin has survived three managerial firings and only two postseason appearances in his 13-year tenure, the magnifying glass might turn to him soon if the losing continues and he does nothing progressive to stop it.
That means a fire sale. It is a tough sell for fans, but so is playing with a roster incapable of contending in the deep National League Central. And while the Brewers are open to trading certain players like Matt Garza, Aramis Ramirez and Kyle Lohse, they are unwilling to trade maybe their most valuable asset, according to ESPN's Buster Olney.
Melvin’s position is understandable. Jonathan Lucroy is one of the best players in the National League when healthy, which he currently is not, and he is a catcher, one of the game’s most difficult positions at which to find value. But Lucroy is the team’s best player and would fetch the most in a trade. Also, it is unlikely the Brewers can rebuild fast enough to seriously contend before Lucroy’s free agency following the 2017 season.
For Melvin, it would behoove him to get something for his assets—Lucroy, Gomez and Jean Segura—rather than hold on too tightly and lose one or more of them for virtually nothing later.
“It’s difficult for fans to swallow, but we’ve seen the Mets do it, we’ve seen the Astros do it, we’ve seen the Cubs do it," Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal said on MLB Network last week. "They’ve all come back stronger. It took a long time. It’s painful. But that might be now where the Brewers need to go. And if they make that decision, then I would trade all three of those guys—Gomez, Segura and Lucroy.”
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Selling Scott Kazmir, a Rental Property
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The Oakland A’s entered Sunday eight games under .500, and if things continue at this pace, Scott Kazmir’s departure is one of the surest things baseball has to offer before the trade deadline.
Kazmir has a 2.75 ERA through six starts, and his 9.15 strikeouts per nine innings is fifth in the American League. Those numbers make him one of the top trade targets on the secondary market, with Cole Hamels being the only starter on the first.
Kazmir will become a free agent after the season and could see heavy interest from the Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals and Houston Astros, his hometown team. The Kansas City Royals are another contender that could be on the phone. That means the price for his services could spike if his production continues through May.
That is all the more reason reason for one of these teams to engage the A’s early before things become too crowded and Kazmir wastes any more good starts with a team falling out of contention.
Getting Something for Johnny Cueto
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The Cincinnati Reds appear set to lose Johnny Cueto in free agency after this season, as he will seek something in the range of $200 million. The Reds believed their chances to sign Cueto to an extension during the offseason were so minuscule that they may not even have made him a formal offer, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.
That means that even with the Reds at 15-15 entering Sunday, they have to consider all offers for Cueto, who will be a free agent after the season. And it seems the Reds understand this, as Cueto has already made starts this season of 125 pitches on April 22, establishing a career high for the 29-year-old right-hander, and 123 pitches Saturday in a blowout win.
Cueto is one of the game’s true aces, and he’s lived up to the billing this season through seven outings. That means some contender could pay the Reds handsomely for his services this season.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox are possible destinations, as both teams can afford to sign Cueto beyond this season. Others in the mix could be the St. Louis Cardinals and Kansas City Royals.
For now, those teams have to hope the Reds fall out of the National League Central race quickly so they can get as many starts out of Cueto as possible, which could help the Reds by driving up the price.
Royals Deal for a Starting Pitcher
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The Kansas City Royals lost James Shields over the offseason and added Edinson Volquez. While that seems like a lopsided trade-off, it has worked out fine for the Royals thus far, as Volquez has a 2.65 ERA and 3.11 FIP through six starts.
Regardless, the Royals need help in the rotation, which had a 4.46 ERA going into Sunday. Yordano Ventura was supposed to head the group this year, but he has a 5.13 ERA in six starts, as well as a seven-game suspension for inciting a brawl against the Chicago White Sox and likely for sparking three bench-clearing incidents in April.
Aside from that, Jason Vargas is out with a strained flexor muscle in his left elbow. For now, Tommy John surgery is not needed, but we’ve become all too familiar with how those things can play out.
Needless to say, the Royals are in the market for starting pitching. Cole Hamels likely is not an option, but rentals like Scott Kazmir, Mike Leake, Johnny Cueto or Jeff Samardzija could be in play, according to ESPN's Buster Olney.
Don’t Let Adrian Beltre Waste Away
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Adrian Beltre has provided excellent value with the bat and glove throughout most of his career and certainly through his four previous seasons with the Texas Rangers. With the team already out of the race and not expected to get better, now is the time to separate themselves from Beltre, who has been an elite third baseman since 2010.
He is owed a prorated $16 million this season and $18 million next year—the 2016 salary is voidable if Beltre fails to reach 600 plate appearances this season—so he doesn’t come cheap. He is also off to a sluggish start, with a .228/.267/.358 line entering Sunday, but that could be more of an incentive to unload him sooner rather than later.
Right now, the Rangers can claim Beltre’s early-season struggles are just a slow start and that his 140 OPS+ over the last five seasons is more reflective of his current ability. But if they wait and Beltre does not recover, his value is nil.
Beltre also has limited no-trade protection and turned 36 about a month ago. These are all strong reasons for the Rangers to move him before the deadline while a market still somewhat exists, with teams like the San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels and Pittsburgh Pirates lacking in third-base production.
A Shortstop for the Mets
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The New York Mets took a risk going into this season by hoping to contend with an incumbent shortstop—either Wilmer Flores or Ruben Tejada, with Flores getting the bulk of the time there.
While the Mets are contending, their shortstops have been awful. They entered Sunday hitting a combined .227/.292/.364 and with minus-four defensive runs saved, according to FanGraphs. That negative mark was the third-worst total in the majors.
That leaves the Mets with two options: They either try 24-year-old Triple-A shortstop Matt Reynolds (.316/.385/.496 with an .881 OPS) or make a trade. For now, let’s assume they will not promote Reynolds, since it’s something that probably should have already happened.
Then their trade options are slim. Alexei Ramirez and Starlin Castro could be targets, writes Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, but Ramirez is not much of an upgrade over what the Mets have, and Castro is unlikely to be offered up unless the return package is massive.
The Mets flirted with Troy Tulowitzki over the winter, but the Colorado Rockies are likely to ask for a lot in return, and he is still owed a prorated $20 million this season and $94 million starting next season through 2020. While the player sounds appealing, the price does not for the Mets.
Because the trade options are so slim, the Mets have to call up Reynolds soon. That way, they can determine if he is the answer. If he is not, then they will have more time to consider giving up what it might take to get Tulowitzki or Castro.
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