Serie A: Analysing the Race for Europa League Places
Italian teams have fared well in the Europa League this season, with both Napoli and Fiorentina reaching the semi-finals of the competition. Now that winning the tournament offers a direct route through to the following season's Champions League, it is seen as a potentially lucrative opportunity rather than a tiring chore.
With four fixtures remaining, the top four in Serie A appears settled. Juventus have been crowned champions, while Roma, Lazio and Napoli are set to battle it out for the two Champions League berths beneath the Bianconeri. One of those three will miss out and thus end up in one of the three Europa League berths.
The other two Europa League spots are up for grabs, however. Just four points separate Fiorentina in fifth from Torino in ninth, with Sampdoria, Genoa and Inter Milan squeezed between them. It makes for a fascinating end to the season.
Here I will analyse all five teams' chances of earning a place in next season's Europa League. The assessment will be based on four areas:
Coach: quality of their coach and performance of their coach thus far this season.
Players: quality of their players, including potential match-winners.
Form: How have they been performing of late?
Fixtures: What games do they have left to play?
Fiorentina
1 of 6
Position: fifth
Points: 52
Coach
Vincenzo Montella is an impressive young coach. During his time with Fiorentina, he has shown his ability to tinker, utilising multiple different systems with varying levels of success. He has also cultivated an aesthetically pleasing style of football built around technically sound players.
Recently, his switching of formations has arguably hindered the team's progress. He has used a variant of 3-4-3, 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 in recent months that, although suggesting versatility and flexibility, has perhaps been a factor in several heavy defeats in important fixtures.
Players
Despite having a reasonably strong defence, Fiorentina have not hit the heights expected up front this season. Mario Gomez has failed to reach the prolific form he often showed in Germany, while Giuseppe Rossi's long-term injury has been a big miss.
Khouma Babacar is now set to miss the rest of the campaign through injury, another blow that leaves the club even more reliant on a misfiring Gomez. The good news is that Mohamed Salah, who arrived in the New Year on loan from Chelsea, has provided a needed injection of pace up in attacking areas.
Form
Until their 3-1 win over Cesena on 3 May, Fiorentina's form had been miserable. They had lost four league games in a row, a run that quashed any hope of securing a Champions League place through Serie A.
The Viola reached the semi-finals of the Europa League, where they capitulated in the first leg away to Sevilla. This is a worrying tendency. Fiorentina blew a final spot in Coppa Italia by losing 0-3 at home to Juventus and have also been heavily defeated away to Napoli and Lazio in recent months.
Fixtures
Their run-in includes testing trips to Empoli and Palermo, though these matches are offset by seemingly comfortable home games against Chievo and already-relegated Parma.
Sampdoria
2 of 6
Position: sixth
Points: 51
Coach
Sinisa Mihajlovic's time with Sampdoria has been his longest spell in charge of one team since he became a manager. Having steered the club away from relegation last season, he signed on for another year; one that has been an undiluted success thus far.
Guiding Sampdoria to the verge of a return to Europe may not be enough to get Mihajlovic to stay, however. Per Football Italia, he has been repeatedly linked with a move to AC Milan or Napoli at the end of this season.
Players
Mihajlovic turned the loss of Manolo Gabbiadini to Napoli in January into a positive, using the funds to reinforce the squad with extra strength in depth. In particular, Luis Muriel and Samuel Eto'o's arrivals have allowed Sampdoria to move on.
Samp's defence is the fifth best in Serie A, with on-loan Roma centre-back Alessio Romagnoli the key protagonist in ensuring stability at the back. Captain Angelo Palombo and Pedro Obiang do a good job of screening the midfield, too.
Form
Worryingly, Sampdoria haven't won a match since 22 March, when they beat Inter at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris. Losses to Juventus and Napoli are understandable, but draws at home to Verona and Cesena paint a stark picture of a team in decline.
Fixtures
Apart from their last match at home to Parma, there are no specifically easy games left for Mihajlovic and Co. Away days at Udinese and Empoli sandwich a tough home clash with Lazio.
Genoa
3 of 6
Position: seventh
Points: 50
Coach
Gian Piero Gasperini's 3-4-3 is as distinctive as it gets. The system is fairly unique and also produces attractive football. Now in his second spell with the club, Gasperini has begun to graft results onto the style.
As it stands, Genoa appear on course to win more league matches than they lose for the first time since the 2008-09 season, when the club finished fifth. Intriguingly, that was during Gasperini's first spell in charge of the Grifone.
Players
Genoa were in flux during the January transfer window. Stefano Sturaro's and Alessandro Matri's loan spells ended prematurely, while Luca Antonelli left for AC Milan in a loan deal that will become permanent at the end of the season.
M'Baye Niang arrived on loan to replace Matri, forming an effective front trident with the graceful Diego Perotti and Iago Falque.
Meanwhile, Mattia Perin is fast becoming one of Europe's finest goalkeepers, and Andrea Bertolacci's creative left foot has earned him an Italy call-up.
Form
Genoa won't be concerned by defeat to Roma in their latest fixture; they had won four of five prior to that loss. This included a 3-1 battering of Milan at the San Siro.
Fixtures
Home games against fellow Europa League chasers Inter and Torino could prove crucial. Aside from that, Genoa must travel to two struggling sides in Atalanta and Sassuolo.
Inter Milan
4 of 6
Position: eighth
Points: 49
Coach
Roberto Mancini must have taken a little while to get used to what he was seeing when he took the reigns at Inter for a second time in November last year. Having guided the club to three successive scudetti in his first spell, he returned to meet a team sitting in mid-table.
Since taking over, Mancini has struggled to implement a consistent formation and starting lineup. However, recent signs indicate a small revival may be in the cards.
Players
As I've previously mentioned, Inter are heavily reliant on their striker and talisman, Mauro Icardi. His goals and recent upsurge in assists are the driving forces upon which their push for European football is built.
Despite defensive vulnerability brought about through the lax Andrea Ranocchia and volatile Juan Jesus, Icardi's form has ensured Inter's goalscoring record is the fourth best in Serie A.
Form
Inter won three of four before a disappointing 0-0 draw with Chievo in their last match. A draw in the Derby della Madonnina with Milan and a win at home to Roma were positive signs in this small burst of results.
Mancini appears to have settled on a 4-3-1-2 formation with Hernanes behind Icardi and Rodrigo Palacio. Time will tell if a settled lineup will lead to more consistent results.
Fixtures
Inter's remaining fixtures are the toughest of all the Europa League contenders'. They must travel to Rome to face a hungry Lazio side before hosting Juventus. They will then round off the campaign by visiting Genoa and playing Empoli at the San Siro.
Torino
5 of 6
Position: ninth
Points: 48
Coach
Giampiero Ventura arrived at Torino a highly experienced coach in the summer of 2011. He immediately led them to promotion from Serie B and has since ensured the club's survival in Italian football's top tier.
Torino have a very clear tactical identity. They play a 3-5-2 with an emphasis on width provided by Bruno Peres and Matteo Darmian. It's tough to break down and has enabled the club to compete domestically while also reaching the Europa League round of 16 this season.
Players
Darmian and Peres are key to the way Torino play, as they are the only true sources of width. Centre-back and captain Kamil Glik is a combative and rugged force, while up front Fabio Quagliarella is still capable of turning a defence on its head.
Form
The Granata recently ended a 20-year wait by beating Juventus. That, however, is the only win they have garnered in their last five league fixtures.
Most recently, against Empoli, Torino lost 0-1 at home courtesy of a shocking piece of goalkeeping by Daniele Padelli, who somehow contrived to pass the ball into his own net.
Fixtures
The team's remaining home matches against Chievo and Cesena are absolutely winnable, though their upcoming trips to Genoa and AC Milan may provide more discomfort.
Verdict
6 of 6
Fiorentina will more than likely exit the Europa League when they meet Sevilla at home on 14 May. A three-goal deficit should prove too much to overturn. The question will thus be: How do they recover from their European exit?
If they can rebound quickly, their remaining fixture list does not look overly taxing. They should have enough to seal one of the two Europa League qualification places.
Sampdoria's recent decline, along with uncertainty surrounding coach Mihajlovic's future, makes their task a hard one, and it is highly possible their city rivals Genoa may overtake them in the final four league fixtures.
Inter are in need of a squad clear-out in the summer, while Torino may prove too tired after a long season including European travels.
Genoa have home games against Torino and Inter to play, and if they can pick up points in those matches, they would not only put distance between themselves and their near rivals, but they could also go above Sampdoria to seal a place in the Europa League next season.
Verdict: Fiorentina and Genoa to qualify, Inter, Sampdoria and Torino to miss out.
