2015 NFL Draft Immediate Re-Do: How the 1st Round Should Have Gone Down
Now that we’ve all had a moment to process the entirety of the 2015 NFL draft, it is now time to partake in some healthy hindsight and do a mock redraft to see how things could (should?) have gone.
Everything at this point is just conjecture, but there are still some ways we can examine how the first round could have been more efficient for many teams.
The main way is done by looking at how the second round went. No picks for any team in this redraft will be a position that wasn’t selected in one of the first two rounds for any team. Nevertheless, when you need to examine the talent that was on the board in the second round, a particular team’s first-round selection could have been impacted.
For plenty of teams, the status quo was the way to go. Several franchises did a great job of merging need with the best player on the board and really knocked that all-important first pick out of the park. Others reached for players at positions of need. This is a tough philosophy to support when you consider just how deep this draft class was. Unless you had one of the first 12-14 picks, the difference in talent between your first- and second-round picks isn’t that great.
Let's hop in our time machine and, using the original draft order, see how things might have gone.
1. Tampa Bay
1 of 32
Original Pick: Jameis Winston, QB, FSU
Redraft Pick: Jameis Winston, QB, FSU
No changes here for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This is a franchise in dire need of a quarterback, and FSU signal-caller Jameis Winston is its man. There’s nothing to compare here in terms of a second-round option, because this quarterback class falls off the cliff after the first two.
2. Tennessee
2 of 32
Original Pick: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Redraft Pick: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
Once again, no changes here. There was plenty of smoke prior to the draft about the Tennessee Titans trading out of this pick, but nothing came of it. Considering they wanted everything but controlling ownership of any team trading up, this should come as no surprise.
Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota is the smart pick here. Regardless of anything else the Titans do, they will always be hamstrung by poor quarterback play.
3. Jacksonville
3 of 32
Original Pick: Dante Fowler Jr., DE, Florida
Redraft Pick: Vic Beasley, DE, Clemson
This pick represents the first deviation from the original draft. While the Jacksonville Jaguars likely didn’t go wrong with Florida defensive end Dante Fowler Jr., it wasn’t the ideal pick. If the goal was tantamount to add a dynamic pass-rushing specialist with off-the-charts measurables, why not pick the one with the film to back it up?
Clemson’s Vic Beasley might be a bit smaller than Fowler, but that’s the only aspect of their games where you check the box for the former Florida star. Beasley was a force in college football for two seasons, and he has the film to back it up.
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4. Oakland
4 of 32
Original Pick: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
Redraft Pick: Leonard Williams, DE, USC
When the Oakland Raiders went on the clock with the No. 4 pick, the only two names being thrown around on the television broadcast were USC defensive tackle Leonard Williams and Alabama wide receiver Amari Cooper. That makes sense, as both are at the top of their respective positions and fill a position of need.
However, when you consider that the Raiders then turned around and reached for Florida State defensive tackle Mario Edwards Jr., we have to do a rewind. Taking Williams in the first would still have given the Raiders the choice of some incredibly talented wide receivers in the second round and beyond. And the disparity in talent between Williams and Edwards is massive.
5. Washington
5 of 32
Original Pick: Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
Redraft Pick: Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
In the original draft, the Washington Redskins decided to take the smart, safe pick of Iowa's Brandon Scherff. He's not the flashiest selection, but he still fills a need. There’s no reason to mess with that sort of logic at this point.
Scherff is a great player with tons of upside. Washington is in desperate need of an upgrade on the offensive line, and Scherff is the man.
It wouldn’t have been unreasonable here to take Fowler to play outside linebacker, as the Redskins took Mississippi State defensive end Preston Smith for that role.
6. New York Jets
6 of 32
Original Pick: Leonard Williams, DT, USC
Redraft Pick: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
The first time around, the New York Jets had Williams fall into their laps at No. 6. However, for this scenario, things go a bit more chalk, and Williams is long gone. That means the Jets can look to their other need and draft Cooper.
This would mean they would need to address their need along the defensive line in the second round. They really couldn’t go wrong either way with either player. Cooper is the best all-around wide receiver in the draft and should really help quarterback Geno Smith.
7. Chicago
7 of 32
Original Pick: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
Redraft Pick: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
As we now come to the Chicago Bears, we see another team that did a nice job of addressing a need with a top prospect. There’s no reason to deviate from the original selection of West Virginia wide receiver Kevin White. With the loss of Brandon Marshall, adding another big target for quarterback Jay Cutler is a top priority, and White is one of the most physically imposing wide receivers in the draft.
8. Atlanta
8 of 32
Original Pick: Vic Beasley, LB, Clemson
Redraft Pick: Dante Fowler Jr., DE, Florida
With the Atlanta Falcons' original pick off the board, they must look elsewhere. Fortunately for them, with the Jaguars passing on Fowler, he falls right into their laps. Fowler is bigger than Beasley and just as athletic, but he lacks some of the polish and production of the former Clemson star. Nevertheless, Fowler has enormous potential and a giant ceiling as a pass-rushing specialist.
9. New York Giants
9 of 32
Original Pick: Ereck Flowers, OG, Miami
Redraft Pick: Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
With all due respect to the New York Giants and their scouting department, the pick of Miami offensive tackle Ereck Flowers was confusing. Yes, the Giants do need to add talent to an aging offensive line, but Flowers’ resume is limited at best for a top-10 pick.
This time around, the Giants instead go with the more proven and talented player. Stanford’s Andrus Peat is one of the most experienced offensive linemen in the draft. Peat can maul in the run game, and he is emerging as a pass protector. Peat gives the Giants a player who can come in and contribute at a high level right away.
10. St. Louis
10 of 32
Original Pick: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
Redraft Pick: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
As much as I’d like to swap out the pick of Georgia running back Todd Gurley here, I just can’t. Following the rules, the only other position the St. Louis Rams could sub in is offensive tackle. Unfortunately, there is no offensive tackle on the board who represents the talent and value that Gurley would be at this point. Therefore, the bruising running back remains the pick.
11. Minnesota
11 of 32
Original Pick: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
Redraft Pick: Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
This selection is really splitting hairs. Both Michigan State’s Trae Waynes and Washington’s Marcus Peters are exceptional press-man cover cornerbacks. I give Peters the nod here because of his ball skills. Peters has a rare knack for turning and locating the football—better than Waynes—and that is huge in the NFL. The Minnesota Vikings would be happy with either guy.
12. Cleveland
12 of 32
Original Pick: Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
Redraft Pick: Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
No changes for the Cleveland Browns with this pick. Washington defensive tackle Danny Shelton is a terrific fit and provides Cleveland with a massive force in the middle of the defense.
The other position the Browns could have picked from at No. 12 is defensive end, so it might have made sense for Kentucky defensive end Alvin Dupree here instead. Nevertheless, for what Cleveland needs, Shelton represents terrific value.
13. New Orleans
13 of 32
Original Pick: Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
Redraft Pick: Alvin Dupree, DE, Kentucky
With the New Orleans Saints' original pick long gone, they must look to a secondary position of need. In the second round, the Saints added a pass-rushing outside linebacker, so with less value on the board at offensive tackle, they can aim to add talent there instead.
Fortunately for the Saints, Kentucky defensive end Alvin “Bud” Dupree is on the board and makes perfect sense. Dupree is a terrifying mix of size (6'4", 269 lbs) and athleticism, and he can really get after the quarterback. Considering that the Saints' second-round pick was Washington’s Hau’oli Kikaha, you understand that the pick of Dupree makes even more sense.
14. Miami
14 of 32
Original Pick: DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
Redraft Pick: DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
Once again, we come to another pick that was made with foresight and intelligence—one that doesn’t need to change. The Miami Dolphins recognized the talent and potential of Louisville wide receiver DeVante Parker. With the other option being defensive tackle and the relative skill at that position and wide receiver, Parker is easily the best choice here.
15. San Francisco
15 of 32
Original Pick: Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
Redraft Pick: Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
For the San Francisco 49ers, things are a little weird in the first round. The pick of Oregon defensive end Arik Armstead makes a ton of sense. Armstead has maximum potential and fills a significant need as a 5-technique defensive end.
While the pick of Armstead isn’t ideal from a talent standpoint, there is no replacement in the draft who could do better. And looking at the second round, there isn’t a strong safety who represents any sort of value here. So with that, Armstead remains the pick.
16. Houston
16 of 32
Original Pick: Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
Redraft Pick: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
When the Houston Texans went on the clock in the first round, it was clear that cornerback was a top need. Houston had some solid prospects to pick from, and it went with Wake Forest cornerback Kevin Johnson.
While Johnson is a fine prospect, in this simulation, he doesn’t represent the best value at the position. That would be Waynes, who is bigger, more athletic and more polished in coverage.
17. San Diego
17 of 32
Original Pick: Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
Redraft Pick: Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
It is difficult to argue with a team drafting an elite prospect who also represents the team’s biggest need. The San Diego Chargers understood that with running back Ryan Mathews gone, they couldn’t sit back and wait for a running back to fall into their laps.
Instead, they made the aggressive move for Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon. Along with Gurley, Gordon is the other true feature back in this draft who can carry an offense for a team.
18. Kansas City
18 of 32
Original Pick: Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
Redraft Pick: Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
You just have to think that the Kansas City Chiefs were pretty excited to land Peters in the first round. Unfortunately for Kansas City, Peters comes off a bit sooner this time around. However, when the other option for the Chiefs is a guard, it is prudent to go ahead and get the next best cornerback on the board. And that cornerback is Johnson. The Chiefs want a physical corner, and he certainly fits the bill.
19. Cleveland (From Buffalo)
19 of 32
Original Pick: Cameron Erving, C, Florida State
Redraft Pick: Cameron Erving, C, Florida State
Cleveland’s first round went about as well as possible. After snagging Shelton earlier in the round, the Browns stabilized their defensive line. This time around, they look to stabilize the offensive front.
The original pick here was Florida State center Cameron Erving, and it’s tough to argue against him in favor of a different interior offensive lineman or pass-rushing outside linebacker at this point. Erving looks like he’s going to be a 10-year starter and multiple-time Pro Bowler.
20. Philadelphia
20 of 32
Original Pick: Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
Redraft Pick: Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
The options for the Philadelphia Eagles here are to stick with USC wide receiver Nelson Agholor, pick a different wide receiver or pick the next top cornerback on the board. It's not exactly an enviable position for Philadelphia at this point.
The Eagles could go with Connecticut cornerback Byron Jones or UCF wide receiver Breshad Perriman. However, neither guy gives the Eagles a better rookie to come in and be productive early over Agholor. For that reason, the former USC star remains the pick.
21. Cincinnati
21 of 32
Original Pick: Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M
Redraft Pick: Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
I can appreciate the fact that the Cincinnati Bengals are willing to take a risk on a talent like Texas A&M tackle Cedric Ogbuehi. At 100 percent, he is one of the most talented offensive linemen in this draft.
However, nothing is certain about his health, and the Bengals could need someone to fill in for Andre Smith early. Not knowing at the time that Oregon tackle Jake Fisher would be on the board in the second round, Flowers and all his potential make more sense here.
22. Pittsburgh
22 of 32
Original Pick: Bud Dupree, DE/LB, Kentucky
Redraft Pick: Shane Ray, LB, Missouri
The Pittsburgh Steelers were able to absolutely steal Dupree in the first round of the draft at No. 22. This time around, the league doesn’t let the Steelers fall into such a player so late. The problem with this pick is exacerbated because the top cornerbacks are gone as well.
The Steelers roll the dice on talented linebacker Shane Ray from Missouri. There’s no doubt Ray can explode off the edge, so if everything else can be resolved, this pick would make sense.
23. Detroit
23 of 32
Original Pick: Laken Tomlinson, OG, Duke
Redraft Pick: Laken Tomlinson, OG, Duke
I was tempted here to give the Detroit Lions Alabama running back T.J. Yeldon. Even though Nebraska running back Ameer Abdullah is a nice back, Yeldon is grossly underrated. Nevertheless, it is clear that Detroit rated Duke guard Laken Tomlinson awfully high if it is prepared to spend this pick on him. Therefore, if the other best option is Yeldon, we leave Tomlinson here.
24. Arizona
24 of 32
Original Pick: D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida
Redraft Pick: Preston Smith, DE, Mississippi State
It would be easy to just leave Florida offensive tackle D.J. Humphries in this spot and never look back. He’s an impressive athlete with a ton of upside. However, the Arizona Cardinals have already dedicated significant resources to get their offensive line in order.
This time around, they turn their attention to the defense and add Mississippi State defensive end Preston Smith. This pick represents a much better value than Missouri defensive end Markus Golden in the second round.
25. Carolina
25 of 32
Original Pick: Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington
Redraft Pick: Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF
The Carolina Panthers going with Washington linebacker Shaq Thompson was more than a little puzzling. Thompson is an undersized linebacker who struggles to shed blockers. The pick didn’t really represent the eminent player on the board or fill the Panthers' most significant need. They addressed that in the second round with wide receiver.
This time around, let’s get that wide receiver first, with UCF speedster Breshad Perriman. When you have a quarterback like Cam Newton, you have to do all you can to surround him with talent. The Panthers drafted a big, physical wide receiver in Michigan’s Devin Funchess in the second, but Perriman would be a much better pairing with Kelvin Benjamin.
26. Baltimore
26 of 32
Original Pick: Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF
Redraft Pick: Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami
In this scenario, the Baltimore Ravens are left looking for a new player, as their original pick Perriman goes a pick ahead of them. Their options are to go ahead and draft another wide receiver or take Minnesota tight end Maxx Williams with this pick. It doesn’t seem the Ravens valued Williams that highly, so let’s add a different speedy wide receiver instead. Miami’s Phillip Dorsett might not be the name Perriman is, but he might be a more explosive and dynamic player.
27. Dallas
27 of 32
Original Pick: Byron Jones, CB, UConn
Redraft Pick: Byron Jones, CB, UConn
For this pick, giving the Dallas Cowboys another player would be hard. The original choice was the athletic UConn cornerback Byron Jones. There isn’t another cornerback left who would be a better fit for the Cowboys. By the same token, the Cowboys' second-round pick of Nebraska’s Randy Gregory would be the best choice at outside linebacker, so there’s no reason to reach. For those reasons, the pick remains Jones.
28. Denver
28 of 32
Original Pick: Shane Ray, LB, Missouri
Redraft Pick: Randy Gregory, LB, Nebraska
By picking Ray in the first round, the Denver Broncos show they are committed to enhance their pass rush even if it means getting a guy who isn’t a model citizen. So with Ray gone, it only makes sense that the Broncos would instead roll the dice on Gregory, who is just as talented. The other option here is offensive tackle, but there isn’t a player here who tops Gregory.
29. Indianapolis
29 of 32
Original Pick: Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami
Redraft Pick: Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State
The Indianapolis Colts drafting Miami wide receiver Phillip Dorsett in the first round says that they are committed to helping quarterback Andrew Luck succeed. With Dorsett off the board, the Colts turn to a different speedster with this pick. Ohio State wide receiver Devin Smith might be the best deep threat in the entire draft, and he has a tendency to make the biggest plays in the biggest moments.
30. Green Bay
30 of 32
Original Pick: Damarious Randall, FS, Arizona State
Redraft Pick: Damarious Randall, FS, Arizona State
When you get toward the end of the first round, you can pretty much chuck strategy out the window with these picks. I’m not sure free safety was a top need for the Green Bay Packers, but they clearly thought so.
And if getting a coverage player for that single-high safety role, Arizona State’s Damarious Randall more than fits the bill. There isn’t a safety in this draft who fits better, and there is no available cornerback worth this pick.
31. New Orleans (From Seattle)
31 of 32
Original Pick: Stephone Anthony, LB, UConn
Redraft Pick: Jake Fisher, OT, Oregon
It is hard to reconcile using a first-round pick on an average inside linebacker like UConn’s Stephone Anthony. If the Saints want to upgrade their inside linebacker position, wait for the second round to do that.
Instead, at the end of the round, why not snatch Oregon offensive tackle Jake Fisher? A first-round combo of Dupree and Fisher would be tremendous, and in the second round, the Saints would have their pick of excellent inside linebackers.
32. New England
32 of 32
Original Pick: Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
Redraft Pick: Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
There's no reason for any big changes here. The New England Patriots always seem to snatch a sleeper player or two in the draft, and 2015 is no different. No other team can better use a diverse talent like Texas defensive tackle Malcom Brown.
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