Playing Fact or Fiction with All of MLB's Hottest Week 5 Buzz, Rumors
Those who continue to maintain that baseball is a "dead" sport simply aren't paying attention, because the 2015 regular season is shaping up to be one of the most interesting in recent memory.
We've already seen one manager lose his job, a former MVP essentially be given away and a handful of veterans and youngsters embark on what appear to be breakout seasons, both at the plate and on the mound.
Lest we forget that one of baseball's perennial cellar dwellers is leaving its "more talented" division competition in the dust while teams that "won the offseason" continue to prove that it's a meaningless platitude.
You don't win anything—except higher expectations—by making a big splash when there are no games to play. Now that there are games to play and teams are realizing that the holes they thought they plugged over the winter remain, the rumor mill has begun to pick up steam.
Is a team ready to promote its top prospect, regardless of service time and future payroll factors? Will a disappointing club hold onto what might be its most valuable trade chip despite the return a trade might bring?
We'll tackle all that and more in this week's edition of "Fact or Fiction."
Jarrod Saltalamacchia Will Sign with Arizona
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With veteran catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia free to sign wherever he wants after being released by Miami, three teams—Arizona, Kansas City and Seattle—look like the finalists to land him, according to reports from The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo and MASN's Roch Kubatko.
The 29-year-old struggled badly in Miami this season, hitting .069 (2-for-29) with a .389 OPS. It was a horrid end to a forgettable year-plus stint with the Marlins that saw him hit .209 with a .661 OPS over 123 games.
Saltalamacchia has only been an above-average run producer once, with the Boston Red Sox back in 2013, when he hit .273 with a .804 OPS. According to Baseball Prospectus, that was also the last season in which he wasn't a major defensive liability behind the plate. However, teams clearly believe he's not as bad as his performance with the Marlins would indicate.
Verdict: Fact
Kubatko notes that there's been "lots of speculation" about Saltalamacchia winding up in Arizona, and with good reason. Of the three teams in the running for his services, the Diamondbacks are the only one that would seemingly be able to offer him regular playing time.
He's not about to supplant All-Star Salvador Perez as the starter in Kansas City and he'd likely be relegated to platoon duty with Mike Zunino in Seattle. Arizona, which has been starting career backup Tuffy Gosewisch, has nothing to lose by giving Salty a shot to be its everyday catcher.
The Dodgers Will Sell High on Alex Guerrero
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Fresh off being named the National League Rookie of the Month, Alex Guerrero has become one of the hottest names in the rumor mill and is drawing interest from multiple clubs, according to a report from Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal.
A middle infielder for most of his career, both in Cuba and the Dodgers' minor league system, the 28-year-old has seen time at third base and in left field this season while putting up a terrific .333/.359/.806 triple-slash line in limited playing time.
Due $4 million in the second year of the four-year, $28 million deal that he signed with the club before the 2014 season, he would appear to be an option for teams looking for an upgrade at second base, third base or even shortstop, though the latter might be a stretch, given his limited range.
Verdict: Fiction
With the Dodgers in need of rotation reinforcements and having significant depth at the hot corner and more on the way with the eventual arrival of another Cuban import, Hector Olivera, a trade seems inevitable. But it's far from a sure thing that Guerrero will be the player that gets moved.
As Rosenthal notes, the club may prefer to unload veteran Juan Uribe, who is due $6.5 million in the final year of his deal, has a lengthy track record of providing above-average defense at the position and is widely considered to be a terrific clubhouse influence.
With both Uribe and second baseman Howie Kendrick set to hit the open market after the season, the Dodgers could be looking at Guerrero as their starter at either position next year, which would make a trade all the more unlikely.
Carlos Correa Will Make His MLB Debut Before June 1
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Last week, we came to the conclusion that Jed Lowrie's injury signaled the start of the Carlos Correa watch in Houston. But the forecast has since changed from a watch to a warning, according to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, who says that the 20-year-old phenom could be in the majors in a few weeks.
That differs slightly from the stance of Houston general manager Jeff Luhnow, who recently told the Houston Chronicle's Evan Drellich that Correa had "a good chance" of reaching Triple-A in May but needed to start facing the same upper-level competition more than once:
"I don’t know (if he needs to go) through the whole thing, but I want a couple teams to come back and say, ‘OK, well, we faced this guy last time, how are we going to get him out this time and have a plan of attack?’ And see how he reacts to that. It’s happening now. We look at it on a week-by-week basis and see whether the next step is now or a week from now or two weeks from now.
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Correa has been dominating the competition for Double-A Corpus Christi, hitting .382/.457/.706 with 13 doubles, six home runs, 28 RBI, 22 runs scored and 13 stolen bases over 25 games, committing only one error in the field.
“If we don’t feel like we’re getting the production out of that spot, out of that position on the infield and (Jed) Lowrie’s still a ways away and we feel like Carlos gives us the best chance to win games,” Luhnow told Drellich, “that’s a scenario that leads to him potentially being here sooner than anticipated.”
Verdict: Fact
While Drellich lays out the scenario in which Correa would avoid being classified as a "Super Two" player, which would give him four years of arbitration eligibility instead of three, that would take the Astros into early June before calling upon its top prospect.
It's a scenario that Fox Sports' Jon Morosi is on board with, but one that I say doesn't work for the team sitting atop the standings in the American League West.
Considering how long and painful the team's rebuilding process has been, the Astros need to capitalize on their early season success—and the warm, fuzzy feelings that their long-suffering fanbase currently have for the team.
Giving Correa a chance to shine on the biggest stage of them all would do just that.
Having a top prospect bypass Triple-A altogether might not be an ideal scenario, but it's not unheard of, either. Houston need only look at Correa's future double-play partner, second baseman Jose Altuve, who made the jump from Double-A to the big leagues at the age of 21 in 2011, as proof of that.
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Alex Cobb Will Be Able to Avoid Tommy John Surgery
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Out of action since the middle of spring training with what was originally diagnosed as tendinitis in his right forearm, Tampa Bay ace Alex Cobb actually has a partially torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow and could be headed for season-ending Tommy John surgery.
Matt Silverman, the Rays' president of baseball operations, told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that the team was still in "a wait-and-see mode'' and that talk of surgery was "premature," noting that Cobb will rest and continue to receive treatment on the injury before trying to pitch through it.
If this all sounds vaguely familiar, it's because we've been witnessing this very scenario play out in New York, where Yankees ace Masahiro Tanaka has tried—unsuccessfully—to stay on the mound, pitching through a partially torn elbow ligament of his own.
Verdict: Fiction
Tampa Bay needs to learn from the mistakes of the Yankees and have Cobb go under the knife now. Whether its pundits or former pitchers, nearly everyone associated with baseball believes that Tommy John surgery is inevitable in Tanaka's case.
While it's true that no two pitchers are created equal, and Cobb's tear might be different than Tanaka's, the end game in both cases remains the same. There's simply no reason for Tampa Bay to delay the inevitable.
Get it over with. Let Cobb put the injury behind him and begin working his way back so that, perhaps, he can provide a boost to the team's rotation in mid-2016, just as Matt Moore is expected to do for the club later this year.
Milwaukee Won't Trade Jonathan Lucroy
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While the rest of baseball has begun to identify which members of the Milwaukee Brewers they might like to trade for once the team decides to officially begin selling off assets, one player the club has already deemed as untouchable is catcher Jonathan Lucroy, according to ESPN's Buster Olney.
Sidelined by a broken toe since mid-April, the 28-year-old is one of the premier catchers in the game, both defensively and at the plate.
Per FanGraphs, only three catchers have posted a higher wRC+ since 2012 than Lucroy's 124 mark, and two of them—Cleveland's Carlos Santana and Minnesota's Joe Mauer—have since shifted to full-time duty at first base.
He's even more impressive behind the dish, where Baseball Prospectus ranks him as the second-best pitch-framer in baseball since 2012, trailing only Jose Molina, who last played for Tampa Bay in 2014.
That he's signed to an incredibly team-friendly deal, due only $12.25 million through the 2017 season, only increases his value. It also makes Milwaukee's reluctance to move him all the more understandable.
Verdict: Fiction
Milwaukee is an absolute mess and is in need of help all over the field. Lucroy is one of the team's most valuable trade chips. The package of talent that he could bring back in a trade would be substantial, potentially filling multiple holes in one fell swoop.
I'm not advocating that the Brewers give him away by any means, but they can't afford to not at least listen to what other teams have to offer. It's entirely possible that a team will present Milwaukee with a deal that's too good to pass up.
Unless otherwise linked or noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs and are current through games of May 6. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts.
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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