Playing 'Real or Fake' with MLB's Most Shocking 2015 Hot Starts
Every season, a handful of MLB players and teams get off to unexpectedly hot starts. And every year, some of those hot starts evaporate in the dog days of summer.
But some of them don't. Sometimes the unexpected keeps happening, until it becomes the new normal.
Let's take a handful of guys and one whole squad that have shot out of the gate faster than a greased four-seamer and play a round of "real or fake," using the available evidence and a dash of old-fashioned gut feeling.
For our purposes, "real" means they'll sustain their current performance, or something close to it, and "fake" means, well, they won't.
Dee Gordon, Miami Marlins
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After going 3-for-5 in a 7-5 loss to the Washington Nationals Wednesday, Dee Gordon is hitting .430. That's not a hot start, that's a supernova in South Beach.
How good has the Miami Marlins' new leadoff hitter been? Good enough to draw the following comparison from FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan and for it not to sound completely laughable:
"Gordon’s been swinging like prime Ichiro. He’s been running like prime Ichiro, and he’s been putting the ball on the ground and spraying it like prime Ichiro. He hasn’t slugged the occasional dinger like prime Ichiro, and he has overall hit the ball a little softer, but the results are alike, right down to the base hits on routine grounders.
It’s a frustrating skillset to play against. Singles can appear out of nowhere.
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The Verdict: Fake
That's not to say Gordon won't continue to be valuable; speed, as the old saw goes, doesn't slump.
But all you need to do is glance at his ludicrous .485 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) compared to a career figure of .341, per FanGraphs, to know this current Ted-Williams-on-a-tear production won't last.
Jeurys Familia, New York Mets
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Jeurys Familia began the season as the New York Mets' fill-in closer, while the incumbent, Jenrry Mejia, served an 80-game performance-enhancing drug suspension.
After a month of action, you can safely remove the "fill-in" part.
Familia has converted all 11 of his save opportunities and owns a minuscule 0.600 WHIP with 19 strikeouts in 15 innings pitched.
"I’ll pitch the sixth, the seventh, the eighth, ninth or first, I don’t care," Familia told Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. "I just want to do what they need me to do to help the team win."
So far, he's accomplishing that goal and then some.
The Verdict: Real
The biggest knock against Familia last season was his handling of left-handers, who hit .293 against him while right-handers hit a scant .134.
This year, lefties have just one hit off him in 18 at-bats with eight strikeouts.
There will be blown saves; that's the nature of baseball. But overall, Familia looks like what he is: a talented 25-year-old reliever coming into his own.
"A year ago he looked like he was trying to pitch around hitters," manager Terry Collins said, per Ackert. "He’s not doing that anymore."
Stephen Vogt, Oakland A's
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It's the chant you'll hear reverberating regularly at the O.co Coliseum: "I believe in the Stephen Vogt, I believe in Stephen Vogt."
So far, Vogt is rewarding the faithful.
Through 29 games, the A's backstop owns a .345/.440/.667 slash line with seven home runs and 25 RBI. But it isn't just his numbers that have won over the Oakland faithful. Vogt also embodies the underdog soul of this Athletics team, as he explained to Sports Illustrated's Ben Reiter:
"Look at me. I'm not chiseled. I'm a regular guy. I wasn't destined to do this. I didn't make it to the big leagues at 22—I made it at 27, and still didn't do well. I made my first Opening Day roster at 30, for crying out loud. If one kid is watching me and is like, "Man, I want to do what he's doing," I want to tell him, "You can."
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The Verdict: Fake
Vogt is the type of guy everyone wants to root for—a scrappy, self-effacing journeyman on a small-market squad.
But let's get real: In eight minor league seasons, he averaged a home run every 38 at-bats. So far this season, he's averaging one every 12 at-bats. Even last year in 84 games for Oakland, he hit one out every 31.9 at-bats.
A world where this season's pace is sustainable—well, let's just say that requires a lot of belief.
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Nick Martinez, Texas Rangers
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The Texas Rangers lost their ace, Yu Darvish, to injury before the season began and currently sit in fourth place in the American League West.
There's a silver lining, though, and his name is Nick Martinez.
Through five starts, Martinez has surrendered three earned runs in 32 innings, good for an infinitesimal 0.84 ERA.
In fact, at the close of April, Martinez owned an even more mind-boggling 0.35 ERA, a franchise record for the season's opening month.
The Verdict: Fake
A former 18th-round pick, Martinez posted a 4.55 ERA last season and led the Rangers with 55 walks in 140.1 innings.
He's still just 24, so there's room for growth. But a closer look at this year's numbers hints at impending regression, as Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News pointed out on April 20:
"Batters are hitting only .214 on balls in play [against Martinez], which is well below the norm (between .290 and .300) for pitchers. He also has a low rate of ground balls (31.9 percent) and strikeouts (3.86 per nine innings). ...
A year ago, Martinez had the second-lowest percentage of strikes among all AL starters (59.8 percent), ahead of only C.J. Wilson. This season he is averaging 63.9 percent strikes through his first two starts, just a tick above the league average of 63.8 percent.
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Martinez might keep buoying a Rangers rotation that needs quality innings. But expecting him to shatter ERA records feels unrealistic.
Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees
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It's strange to call a guy who's currently hitting .231 "hot," but Alex Rodriguez isn't merely some guy.
He's baseball's active home run leader, coming off a season-long performance-enhancing drug suspension and closing in on his 40th birthday.
There were reasons to doubt A-Rod would do anything with the bat this year. So far, all he's done is launch six long balls through 26 games, which puts him on pace to hit about 37.
That would leave him at 691 career dingers, fourth on the all-time list and within shouting distance of Babe Ruth.
Verdict: Fake
Credit Rodriguez for keeping his head down in the early going, brushing off the boos and media scrutiny and contributing on the field.
But we're not buying this early power binge. Again, A-Rod is almost 40. He hasn't posted a double-digit home run total since 2012 and hasn't cleared the 20-home-run plateau since 2010. An injury, protracted slump or both will hit at some point.
Expect Rodriguez's final line to be closer to the modest preseason projections and further from his MVP glory days. Something along the lines of what ZiPS predicts—.229/.319/.414, 14 HR, 50 RBI per FanGraphs—seems realistic.
Houston Astros
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If one team embodies the word "surprise" through a month of play, it's the Houston Astros.
Yes, they just dropped three straight to the Texas Rangers, their Lone Star State rivals. But even with the mini-skid, Houston owns an 18-10 record and a five-game lead in the AL West.
That's a big deal for a club that finished 70-92 last year, suffered through three consecutive 100-loss campaigns from 2011 to 2013 and hasn't posted a winning record in seven years.
The Verdict: Real...mostly
We're not ready to declare the Astros division favorites just yet. But the AL West, like the rest of the American League, appears wide-open. And the 'Stros have the magic ingredients—pitching and defense—that equal success in today's MLB.
Look for Houston to stay in it until the end and possibly deliver on owner Jim Crane's preseason proclamation, per MLB.com's Brian McTaggart: "The goal is to make the playoffs."
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