NBA Playoffs 2015: Updated Standings, Predictions After Sunday's Results
One should never read too much into a single game, especially the opening game, in a NBA playoff series. With that said, it's still appropriate to look over the 2015 postseason landscape and reassess things if necessary after Sunday's pair of conference semifinal clashes.
The Atlanta Hawks took on the Washington Wizards, while the Golden State Warriors met the Memphis Grizzlies to kick off the round.
At the time of writing, the other two conference semifinals matchups had yet to commence, so they'll be left out of this analysis. For the two underway, below is a brief breakdown to see what, if anything, has changed.
Conference Semifinals Results
| May 3 | Atlanta Hawks | 98-104 | Washington Wizards |
| May 3 | Golden State Warriors | 101-86 | Memphis Grizzlies |
Conference Semifinals Series Standings
| East | No. 1 Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 5 Washington Wizards | Washington leads 1-0 | ATL in 7 |
| East | No. 2 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 3 Chicago Bulls | Game 1 on Mon. | CHI in 6 |
| West | No. 1 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 5 Memphis Grizzlies | Golden State leads 1-0 | GS in 5 |
| West | No. 2 Houston Rockets vs. No. 3 Los Angeles Clippers | Game 1 on Mon. | HOU in 7 |
Eastern Conference Semifinals
No. 1 Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 5 Washington Wizards
On one hand, the Wizards' 104-98 Game 1 win over the Hawks was something of a surprise. Not only is Atlanta the top seed in the East, but it also lost only six home games during the regular season, while Washington finished 17-24 on the road.
When you look back at the teams' respective first-round series, Washington's win should have come as a major shock. The Wizards look to be finding their footing, and the Hawks flattered to deceive and needed six games to eliminate the Brooklyn Nets.
John Wall continued his great playoffs with 18 points and 13 rebounds. NBA.com's John Schuhmann credited Wall with helping improve an offense that was averaging an unimpressive 101.8 points per 100 possessions during the regular season, per NBA.com:
Wizards fans got a bit worried when it appeared Wall and Bradley Beal suffered minor injuries in Game 1. Both players allayed any fears that the maladies could mean missing any time in the series.
"We'll get it down. We'll get the swelling down before tomorrow's game," said Wall regarding his injured wrist, per The Washington Post's Jorge Castillo. "I did a lot of treatment last night. Just trying to get it as best as we can get it before the game tomorrow."
"I've sprained this ankle 30 times," added Beal about his sore ankle. "The swelling's never gone away. It wasn't that bad. I got to thank my training staff. I feel a lot better today than yesterday."
Two things will be interesting to watch regarding the Hawks over the course of the series.
Firstly, was Atlanta's Game 1 offensive performance more down to fatigue or a worrying sign of things to come?
The Hawks didn't have a lot of time to rest following their Game 6 win over the Nets before they took on the Wizards. Perhaps with more turnaround time between Games 1 and 2, Atlanta's players will be a little more rested, thus shooting better from long range.
The second point focuses on head coach Mike Budenholzer's rotations. Kevin Arnovitz of ESPN.com is one of the voices arguing that the Hawks bench is weighing the team down:
"Reserve units this postseason for Atlanta have scored only 95.6 points per 100 possessions and have given up 101.8, per ESPN Stats & Info. That net efficiency of minus-6.2 is making life far more difficult than it should be for the Hawks. During the 55 minutes the first three guys off the bench -- Schroder, Antic, Bazemore -- play together, the net efficiency is minus-15.2. Meanwhile, Scott is killing the Hawks, who are getting beat by 24.1 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor.
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Budenholzer should rely more heavily on his starters, but he can't afford to wear them out too early in the series. Maybe he can find the right balance Tuesday.
Washington's Game 1 win combined with how the first round played out might have soured some on the Hawks. But Atlanta earned the top seed in the East for a reason. From 1 to 5, it's the best team in the conference.
The Hawks will figure it out and take this series in seven.
Western Conference Semifinals
No. 1 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 5 Memphis Grizzlies
At full strength, the Grizzlies might be able to seriously challenge the Warriors. Golden State didn't really start playing its best against the New Orleans Pelicans until the fourth quarter of Game 3, and Memphis' more physical style is perfect for the postseason, when games slow down a bit.
The Mike Conley injury really puts the Grizzlies behind the eight ball, though. ESPN's Marc Stein snapped a photo of the point guard warming up before Game 1, but Conley obviously never appeared in the game:
Stein then reported that Memphis expects Conley to play at some point in the series.
There's no question as to Conley's importance to the Grizzlies against Golden State. Memphis might have a very good defense, but it still needs to score. Conley accounted for a little over a fourth of the team's made three-pointers during the regular season, which is a serious problem for a team that finished 29th in three-point makes and attempts.
Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes wrote that Conley's replacements, Nick Calathes and Beno Udrih, simply aren't good enough to put Memphis in a position to advance:
"Calathes played physical defense on Curry, but he was such a non-threat on offense that the Warriors could simply ignore him and pack the middle with rangy help defenders. Udrih posed a bigger scoring threat, but Curry got wherever he wanted on offense against him.
That trade-off is one the Grizzlies don't have to make if Conley is available. And at the very least, Calathes and Udrih would see more of their minutes against Golden State's second unit, which would help minimize the damage their respective limitations cause.
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Of course, by the time Conley returns, the damage might have already been done. Going down two games would be hard enough for the Grizzlies, and if they fall behind 3-0, then the series is essentially already over, barring a catastrophic injury to a key Warriors player.
Memphis was always going to be the underdog in this series. The Grizzlies simply can't keep pace with the Warriors over a seven-game series, and Conley's injury may only hasten their demise. If he isn't back before Game 3, this could be over rather quickly.
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