Early 'Buyer or Seller' Predictions for All 30 MLB Teams at the Trade Deadline
For MLB executives, the busy season is right around the corner.
The big league trade deadline is still a couple of months away, but team officials definitely need to keep their phones close by. Just ask Doug Melvin, the general manager of the Milwaukee Brewers.
The downtrodden National League Central squad is "ready to listen" to trade offers already, according to Buster Olney of ESPN. Looking around the landscape of the league, the Brew Crew certainly won't be the only seller this summer, but there promises to be far more buyers.
There was one primary factor taken into consideration in the process of predicting which clubs will be adding pieces and which ones will be subtracting: whether a given team will be in the mix for a playoff spot this season.
Thanks to the advent of the second wild card, there are all sorts of clubs that will be in the chase—at least mathematically—right down to the wire. As a result, it's good to be a seller—especially a seller with starting pitching to move.
Houston Astros
1 of 30
Predicted Status: Buyer
It's a whole new world.
Formerly the perennial laughingstock of the American League West, the Houston Astros are now hanging out at the top of that division.
Under the watch of manager A.J. Hinch, the Astros have reeled off a historically impressive start to the season. Per the team's Twitter account, Houston's 18-7 record through the first 25 games was the best ever mark in franchise history. Currently, the 18-8 Astros own a seven-game edge in the division.
Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle noted, "[General manager Jeff] Luhnow said Monday that he will likely look to add to the rotation."
More from Luhnow, per Drellich:
"(The early success) makes it more likely that we're going to be making moves to have an immediate payback and potentially even moves that come at a cost long term. The more we feel like we've got a chance to be relevant all summer and potentially be relevant in October, the more we can be focused on what we can do to bolster this team.
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Los Angeles Angels
2 of 30
Predicted Status: Buyer
The reigning division champs, the Los Angeles Angels have plenty of competition as the team looks to notch a second consecutive AL West title. The upstart Houston Astros are rolling along, and the Seattle Mariners promise to cause problems after a busy offseason.
One area of the roster that the Halos will have to consider bolstering is the starting rotation. Jered Weaver and Matt Shoemaker have both wobbled out of the gates, and C.J. Wilson has already had fluid drained from his balky left elbow.
Oakland Athletics
3 of 30
Predicted Status: Seller
It's never wise to write off a team built by Billy Beane.
Then again, this Oakland Athletics squad is dealing with some major weaknesses. The porous defense simply can't catch the ball, as Oakland has committed the third-most errors in baseball. Then there's the gas can of a bullpen, which has a share of the big league lead with eight losses.
If Oakland tumbled out of the race, club vice president and GM Beane will have his pick of chips to deal. At the top of the list is free-agent-to-be Scott Kazmir, who has been shredding the AL to the tune of a 1.62 ERA. Ben Zobrist, who is also a pending free agent and the Swiss Army knife of baseball, would also represent a potential target. For now, though, the utility man is stuck on the disabled list with a knee injury.
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Seattle Mariners
4 of 30
Predicted Status: Buyer
With an 11-15 record, this underwhelming start was not in the script for the Seattle Mariners.
There is an assortment of areas where the M's could seek an upgrade or two. The vaunted rotation and bullpen have both been less than impressive. Plus, outside of Nelson Cruz, who has battered the league's pitchers, the lineup has been quiet.
Texas Rangers
5 of 30
Predicted Status: Seller
The Texas Rangers were buyers on the Josh Hamilton front, but this team has the clear look of a summer seller. Sitting in the bottom of the West and without Yu Darvish and Derek Holland, the outlook is bleak for the Rangers in 2015.
For GM Jon Daniels, Adrian Beltre is the club's most valuable piece. The veteran third baseman has one skill that is nearly impossible to find on the trade front: major pop.
Chicago White Sox
6 of 30
Predicted Status: Buyer
This is a tricky call.
After a busy winter of revamping the rotation, bullpen, lineup and bench, the Chicago White Sox appeared to be moving in the right direction.
The early results on the field suggest otherwise. The 8-14 White Sox are in the bottom of the AL Central, and manager Robin Ventura's team is having an awfully difficult time scoring runs. The South Siders are dead last in that department.
With the Kansas City Royals and the Detroit Tigers at the head of the class, this division is shaping up to be extremely competitive. If the White Sox don't make a move soon, the club will go from potential "buyer" to standing pat.
Cleveland Indians
7 of 30
Predicted Status: Buyer
The Tribe are in a similar spot as the Chicago White Sox. There's no debating that the Cleveland Indians have the upside to make a postseason push, but so far, the returns on the diamond have been poor.
The best reason to be optimistic about this team is that the starting staff should only get better. Cleveland has the likes of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer headlining a group that has so far been one of the least effective in baseball. The staff's ERA is the fifth-worst in the bigs.
Detroit Tigers
8 of 30
Predicted Status: Buyer
The winners of four consecutive AL Central titles, the Detroit Tigers are once again setting the pace in the division.
At this early juncture, the Tigers don't have any glaring weaknesses that have to be addressed. If president, CEO and GM Dave Dombrowski wants to make a move, he's going to need to be creative. Per Bleacher Report's Jason Cantania, Detroit has the worst farm system in baseball.
Kansas City Royals
9 of 30
Predicted Status: Buyer
Off to a 16-9 start, the Kansas City Royals are making it abundantly apparent that last season was no fluke.
The bullpen has been lights-out, putting up an unreal 1.00 ERA in 2015. However, the rotation looks like one part of the roster that could use some work. Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Vargas have both been duds this season, posting 6.52 and 5.95 ERAs, respectively.
Minnesota Twins
10 of 30
Predicted Status: Seller
Considering the low expectations surrounding the Minnesota Twins before the season got underway, it sure has been an encouraging start for the team.
The Twins own a 14-12 record, but it's still to be determined if Minnesota has the talent—especially in the rotation—to continue cruising along at such a clip. In 2015, journeyman Mike Pelfrey has been the Twins' most consistent starter.
Baltimore Orioles
11 of 30
Predicted Status: Buyer/Seller
As the Baltimore Orioles angle for the top spot in the East, the squad figures to be a buyer this summer. Based on the early results, the bullpen or the dinged-up middle infield look like two places where the O's could look to add an extra body.
There's also the chance that Baltimore could take on the role of seller. With the promising Kevin Gausman stranded in the pen, the team's brain trust could ship out a veteran starter to create room for the 24-year-old in the rotation.
Boston Red Sox
12 of 30
Predicted Status: Buyer
The rotation has been an absolute mess for the Boston Red Sox. The team's starting five checks in with the worst ERA in baseball.
With a loaded farm system and a clear need for a big-time arm, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports writes that the Red Sox "may remain the favorite for Hamels."
While bringing in the Philadelphia Phillies lefty would provide Boston with a significant boost, a shrewder move would be to aim for a couple of lower-priced targets.
New York Yankees
13 of 30
Predicted Status: Buyer
Rotation reinforcements will likely be required if the New York Yankees are going to hold on to the team's perch atop the standings in the AL East.
CC Sabathia, the owner of a 5.40 ERA, has disappointed early on, and then there's the sidelined Masahiro Tanaka. Shut down with wrist and forearm issues, the Japanese right-hander will be out for at least a month, per Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News.
When asked about a timetable for his return, Tanaka didn't have much to say: "(I'm) just going to try to get back as soon as I can," Tanaka said to Feinsand, via a translator. For now, the starter remains a giant question mark for the Yankees—the kind of question mark that could force the team to make a big move on the trade block.
Tampa Bay Rays
14 of 30
Predicted Status: Inactive
Even with 11 players on the disabled list, the Tampa Bay Rays are in the middle of the title conversation in the AL East.
That list of 11 includes some big names like starters Matt Moore and Alex Cobb. With so many quality contributors set to return in the coming months, the Rays won't even have to turn to the trade market this summer. Instead, Tampa Bay can count on rehabbing players as the team's midseason additions.
Toronto Blue Jays
15 of 30
Predicted Status: Buyer
Fixing the rotation should be right at the top of the to-do list for Toronto Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos.
Toronto's starting five has put up a 5.45 ERA, one of the worst in baseball. The group has also allowed the opposition to tee off at a clip of .286, which is the fourth-highest average in the majors. Those numbers are going to have to go down—way down—for the Blue Jays to keep up in the AL East.
Arizona Diamondbacks
16 of 30
Predicted Status: Seller
Rebounding from a 98-loss campaign, not a lot was expected from the Arizona Diamondbacks. So far, the NL West team hasn't done anything to disprove the skeptics.
If GM Dave Stewart wants to ship out a veteran or two, Mark Trumbo is a name to consider. The D-backs have a crowded situation in the outfield, and Trumbo offers the kind of pop that is difficult to find on the trade market.
According to Jim Bowden of ESPN, the right-handed hitter is the seventh-best chip on the trade front. Early on, the masher hasn't exactly raised his value, as he's connected on only two home runs.
Colorado Rockies
17 of 30
Predicted Status: Seller
The Colorado Rockies simply don't have the arms to compete.
The starting staff is sporting the worst ERA in the NL and subsequently sending the Rockies careening toward yet another disappointing campaign in the process. Looking over the roster, Carlos Gonzalez would appear to be one of the most valuable trade pieces at Coors Field. The problem is that the right fielder, who is swinging at a clip of .200 with two home runs, is off to a brutal start at the dish.
Los Angeles Dodgers
18 of 30
Predicted Status: Buyer/Seller
With Hyun-jin Ryu on the shelf and Brandon McCarthy out for the year, the Los Angeles Dodgers need to strengthen the rotation.
According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the NL West heavyweights could accomplish that goal by subtracting from the big league roster. As Rosenthal notes, Los Angeles has three options at third base it could choose to deal from: Juan Uribe, Justin Turner and Alex Guerrero.
San Diego Padres
19 of 30
Predicted Status: Buyer
After a remarkably busy offseason of trades, shortstop remains the weak link for the San Diego Padres.
Alexi Amarista, who has been patrolling the position for the Pads, has impressed with the glove, but it's been an entirely different story with the bat. The Venezuelan is batting .183 and has collected just three extra-base hits. Finding quality offensive shortstops is no easy task. Still, between now and July 31, that will be one of the top priorities for the San Diego brain trust.
San Francisco Giants
20 of 30
The Status: Buyer
Suffice it to say that the acquisition of Casey McGehee hasn't exactly worked out for the San Francisco Giants.
The right-handed hitter has been a walking rally-killer, as he's already grounded into nine double plays. Per Bowden of ESPN, the poor start for McGehee has spurred the Giants to explore the trade market for third basemen.
Chicago Cubs
21 of 30
Predicted Status: Buyer
Apparently, the Chicago Cubs could be in the market for yet another lefty ace.
After an offseason that included the arrival of stars like pitcher Jon Lester and manager Joe Maddon, and a spring that saw the rise of a slew of prominent prospects, the Cubs are cruising in 2015.
Per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, the team has been checking in on the availability of Cole Hamels. With a stacked farm system, the NL Central club has the pieces to make such a blockbuster a reality.
Cincinnati Reds
22 of 30
Predicted Status: Seller
It's crazy to call the Cincinnati Reds a seller when the team is a single game under .500. Then again, the Johnny Cueto situation can't be ignored.
The righty ace is set to become a free agent at the end of the season and is looking to make some major coin. According to Heyman of CBS Sports, the starter "is believed to be seeking $200 million, or thereabouts."
Unless the Reds want to pay up, the club risks letting him walk for free. The other option would be to ship him out in a midseason swap and land a ransom in the process.
Milwaukee Brewers
23 of 30
Predicted Status: Seller
The Milwaukee Brewers picked up right where the team left off last fall. The NL Central club has been the worst in baseball with an 8-18 record.
As a result, the Brewers are willing to talk trades, per Olney of ESPN. As he writes, Milwaukee has lots of quality players who could be on the way out of town, from Kyle Lohse to Adam Lind to Jean Segura. The most compelling potential trade chip of all is center fielder Carlos Gomez. The Dominican is a game-changer at the plate, in the field and on the bases.
Whether he's actually available remains to be seen. According to Bob Dutton of The News Tribune, the "Brewers don't want to trade him." Perhaps that's the case. Then again, placing Gomez off limits is also a great way for Milwaukee to drive up the asking price.
Pittsburgh Pirates
24 of 30
Predicted Status: Buyer
For the 12-13 Pittsburgh Pirates, there's no question that the bullpen has been the weak link.
Already, the relief corps has piled up eight loses in 2015. With the St. Louis Cardinals flying along and the young Chicago Cubs stepping up, the Pirates have no choice but to find a solution to the late-inning mess if the team wants to earn a third consecutive trip to October.
St. Louis Cardinals
25 of 30
Predicted Status: Buyer
It's still early, but for now there's no way to avoid the reality that the St. Louis Cardinals are the best team in baseball.
Even with ace Adam Wainwright sidelined for the campaign, the Cards have a 19-6 record, which is the best mark in baseball. With St. Louis carving through the NL, the team definitely falls into the "buyer" camp." At this point, it's difficult to see just which part of this extremely well-rounded team will need to be upgraded.
Atlanta Braves
26 of 30
Predicted Status: Seller
At 12-14, the Atlanta Braves are just a couple of games south of .500. Despite the solid start, this NL East squad does not have the look of a postseason contender.
Outside of Julio Teheran and Shelby Miller, the starting five is either suspect or unproven. Meanwhile, the offense hasn't exactly been tearing the cover off the ball. The Braves' attack ranks No. 15 in batting average and No. 16 in OPS.
Miami Marlins
27 of 30
Predicted Status: Buyer
The Miami Marlins have recovered nicely from a nightmare start to the season. The Fish are inching back to .500 thanks to a 7-3 run in the club's past 10 contests.
A midseason trade would certainly help the cause as the Marlins claw back into the race in the NL East. But the biggest addition the team could make would be a healthy return for Jose Fernandez, who is working his way back from Tommy John surgery.
New York Mets
28 of 30
Predicted Status: Buyer
The 16-10 New York Mets are occupying the top spot in the NL East thanks to the dominant work of the rotation. The Mets starting five has posted a 3.11 ERA, which is the third-best mark in baseball.
If GM Sandy Alderson decides to pull the trigger on a trade, it would be to add some punch to a less-than-stellar offense. So far, New York's crew of position players has posted a .657 OPS, which ranks No. 24 in the bigs.
Philadelphia Philles
29 of 30
Predicted Status: Seller
This call is about as easy as it gets.
Owners of a 10-17 mark, the Philadelphia Phillies are languishing in last place in the NL East. As the Phils hurtle toward a second consecutive fifth-place finish, the big question is whether the club's front office will manage to ship out any of its high-priced veterans.
Lefty Cole Hamels clearly appreciates that he's on the block: "He's dealing with it OK," explained his agent John Boggs, via Heyman of CBS Sports. "He knows what the drill is. By now, he's very accustomed to the drill."
Considering just how many contenders could use an ace like Hamels, there's an extremely high probability that the starter will end the season in a stadium other than Citizens Bank Park.
Washington Nationals
30 of 30
Predicted Status: Buyer
So far this year, the Washington Nationals have had to do without the services of infielder Anthony Rendon.
The talented right-handed hitter initially landed on the DL with a sprained MCL but has more recently been hobbled by an oblique injury, per Damian Cristodero of MLB.com. As Rendon continues to battle health problems, the Nats might have no choice but to add another player to stabilize the infield.
Note: All stats courtesy of MLB.com and current through May 4 games.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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