Kentucky Derby 2015 Winner: Analysis, Highlights from American Pharoah's Victory

American Pharoah justified the hype with his victory in the Kentucky Derby, and all roads now lead toward the Preakness Stakes for Bob Baffert’s horse.

No horse has won the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978, but American Pharoah looks to have the scope to be a serious contender judging by the speed, grit and determination he showed at Churchill Downs.

The next stop is the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico on Saturday, May 16 before he contests the Belmont Stakes on Saturday, June 6, barring any mishaps in between after he proved too good for his rivals in Louisiana.

Place	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Lengths
1	18	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	-----
2	10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	1
3	8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	3
4	15	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	3 1/4
5	5	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	6 1/2
6	3	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	7 3/4
7	14	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	8 3/4
8	6	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock	9 1/2
9	13	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	10 1/4
10	2	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	11
11	21	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nick Zito	12
12	9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	12 3/4
13	17	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	15 1/2
14	1	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	15 1/2
15	20	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	15 3/4
16	16	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	19 1/4
17	4	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	35
18	19	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	60 1/2
	7	El Kabeir	Calvin Borel	John Terranova	SCR
	11	Stanford	Florent Geroux	Todd Pletcher	SCR
	12	International Star	Miguel Mena	Michael Maker	SCR

Baffert, whose three previous winners of the Kentucky Derby subsequently won the Preakness before coming up short in the Belmont, is aware of the hype surrounding American Pharoah, per Sky Sports:

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There’s a lot of positive energy on this horse. There’s a certain aura about him. He’s caught people’s attention. He makes a trainer really look good. I was on pins and needles all week. For some reason, the pressure, I just felt a lot of it. It was good pressure but there was a lot of it and I knew I had the horses to do it with. People were talking about a super horse. I read that and I really don’t like it. Now you can say whatever you want.

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American Pharoah didn’t have things his own way in the Kentucky Derby compared to his previous races. Though he was beaten on his debut, he followed up with impressive wins in two Grade 1 races before missing the Breeders’ Cup due to a foot injury.

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

He had again not been tested in two runs in 2015 prior to the Kentucky Derby, and it was a big step up in the level of competition, despite the facile nature of his previous wins.

What his victory in the Arkansas Derby in his previous start showed was his ability to sit just off the pace and still triumph, rather than having to be a front-runner. That proved to be crucial given his draw for the Kentucky Derby.

From Gate 18, although his position was actually 15 following three withdrawals, American Pharoah was forced to run wide around both turns as his stablemate Dortmund cut out the running. Firing Line was second, and then American Pharoah was third as the trio had the race to themselves pretty much from the start.

Gary Stevens timed his attack on Firing Line well after his horse had twice been beaten by a head by Dortmund earlier in his career. But, while Firing Line shook off Dortmund, he couldn’t do the same to his stablemate. Victor Espinoza, who won the first two legs of the Triple Crown on California Chrome last year, brought American Pharoah with a strong run down the outside. The colt found plenty for Espinoza and was well on top at the finish.

Garry Jones/Associated Press

With the race so clearly dominated by the first three home, there was little to get excited about in behind. Frosted did stay on well from the back to claim fourth place, and Materiality put in a tremendous effort to be sixth after missing the break. Other than that, it was all about the first three, who had all shown top-class form prior to the race.

Joe Drape of The New York Times now feels American Pharoah can succeed where Baffert’s previous Kentucky Derby winners have failed:

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Baffert had been to the most hallowed winner’s circle in American racing three times previously, with War Emblem, Real Quiet and Silver Charm. Each went to Belmont Park with a shot of becoming the 12th Triple Crown champion and the first since Affirmed in 1978. All fell short. Maybe Baffert has another shot.

Maybe American Pharoah is the one to complete the sweep.

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There is plenty in American Pharoah’s favour when it comes to winning the Triple Crown. He will have no issue with the slightly shorter trip in the Preakness Stakes, and the field is not expected to contain the strength in depth of the Kentucky Derby.

Being vulnerable to a fresher horse is always a worry when it comes to the Belmont Stakes, but the Kentucky Derby will have hardened American Pharoah up and is just the type of race he needed. He will also need a little bit of luck, but he now looks to be Baffert’s best chance of winning the Triple Crown.