Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2015: Keys for Each Fighter and Predictions

Saturday is a sports fireworks show, and the bout between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao is the grand finale.

Rumors and speculation surrounding a possible showdown between Mayweather (47-0, 26 KO) and Pacquiao (57-5-2, 38 KO) circulated for years, and it is finally happening. Pacquiao represents the one hurdle Mayweather has yet to clear inside the ring in his illustrious career, but it is also the biggest hurdle. 

Here is a look at the keys for each fighter, as well as a predicted winner.

How Pacquiao Can Finally Put a One in Mayweather’s Loss Column

There is a reason Pacquiao is seen as the offensive force in this fight, and it says more about Mayweather than the southpaw.

Mayweather is a defensive wizard in the ring, and Pac-Man cannot be intimidated by that fact. If Pacquiao sits back and avoids offensive attacks simply so Mayweather cannot counter, it will be a straightforward Mayweather victory. For as much credit as Mayweather fairly receives for that defense, Pac-Man isn’t built to win a pure boxing contest Saturday.

Mayweather is too skilled to lose a boxing match that simply revolves around counterattacks.

Pacquiao must put early pressure on the undefeated champion from the opening bell with his formidable footwork and power to establish momentum. Mayweather is a master tactician who relies on adjustments throughout the fight, so Pac-Man must vary his approach from round to round, change speeds and attack from different angles.

It is too easy for a brilliant boxer such as Mayweather to adjust and dominate in the later rounds if Pac-Man continues to attack in the same way. Establish that initial momentum, and then attack with the dominant left hand and the strong right hand from various angles. The ability to stun Mayweather with both hands could prove critical because Mayweather has to account for all angles. 

The best way to come at Mayweather from those angles is by pinning him against the ropes. From there, Pacquiao can unleash his speed and offensive flurries in a phone booth, which gives Mayweather less space to operate and fewer opportunities to avoid Pacquiao's best punches.

Floyd Mayweather: If It’s Not Broke, Don’t Fix It

Mayweather doesn’t have to build an early lead or even win the first couple of rounds. He just has to neutralize Pacquiao’s aggression and adrenaline to ensure the fight doesn’t get away from him. The adjustments and counters can come in the later rounds.

Mayweather actually suggested he will be the initial aggressor in an interview with TNT, via Sky Sports.

“I am going to approach it in a very, very aggressive way and go out there and press the attack early," Mayweather said. "Of course I would love to win by knockout. I am pretty sure he is going to come at me extremely strong. I am facing one of the best fighters I have ever faced.”

While that approach would surprise many who are accustomed to watching a tactical and measured Mayweather in the ring, there is no reason for the undefeated fighter to go against his strengths.

If Mayweather disrupts Pacquiao’s timing with the ability to defend against flurries and counterpunch attacks with a powerful jab, he can frustrate the southpaw. Theoretically, a frustrated Pacquiao would be more inclined to take risks, which opens himself up for those deadly counterpunches that Mayweather has utilized his entire career.

If Pac-Man loses his timing, Mayweather can get some shots in when Pacquiao lunges forward, which would force Pacquiao to reset the offense. If that happens throughout the middle rounds, Mayweather will have control of the fight.

It is also important for Mayweather to stay away from the ropes so he has more room for defense. Chris Iorfida of CBC Sports suggested as much:

No rope-a-dope: Mayweather has found himself forced to the ropes in fairly recent fights against Marcos Maidana and Victor Ortiz. While he keeps his chin tucked and catches a lot of shots on his arms and shoulders, he can't afford to toil there too frequently; there was a judge in both his Saul Alvarez bout and his first Maidana fight who saw things even.​​ 

Mayweather also must fight the temptation to give in to the criticism that exists because he doesn’t land a lot of punches and isn’t as aggressive as some of the all-time greats. ESPN put Mayweather’s lack of aggression into statistical context:

Mayweather can’t get caught up in the hype surrounding this fight and try to beat Pac-Man at his own game. The defense-first script has worked for Mayweather his entire career—don’t change it now.

Predicted Winner

Game plans against Mayweather always sound great on paper before the bout. If his opponent can establish some momentum in the early going while Mayweather sits back and measures him up, perhaps that can carry over to the later rounds.

The problem is, those game plans never actually come to fruition.

Mayweather is undefeated for a reason and this generation’s master tactician. He overwhelms opponents with his unstoppable boxing skills and is unbeatable after he makes the proper adjustments.

There is no reason to expect anything differently Saturday, although Pacquiao represents a more formidable opponent than Mayweather has seen in years. There won’t be any knockouts, and there will be times in the early and middle rounds that Pacquiao appears to have control, but Mayweather will tap into that skill set in the late rounds to secure the victory.

He will avoid Pac-Man’s most powerful shots and keep the fight away from the corners and ropes. From there, Mayweather can time Pacquiao’s flurries and unload a critical counterpunch or two.

Many have tried, and all have failed against Mayweather. Pacquiao’s name will be added to the list Saturday. 

Prediction: Mayweather by decision.