Kentucky Derby Entries 2015: Field Odds, New Favorites After Post Positions Draw

The Kentucky Derby post position draw has come and gone, and it's left many a horse player with numerous questions about his or her top choice in this year's Run for the Roses.

I'm still sold on American Pharoah, despite his outside post position, and Dortmund's mid-pack draw should provide us with an interesting storyline moving forward. That said, not everyone had a great day.

Far Right, one of my favorite under-the-radar picks to finish in the money, was drawn for the 20th post position. Meanwhile, 50-1 long shot Mr. Z, drew the 17th post position, a hole that has never, yes never, produced a winner.

It was a good day for some though, and I've singled out two horses whose post position draws have pushed them further into the conversation over legitimate Derby contenders.

The first, an international shipper looking to make Derby history, and the second, a Flatter colt who would, in any other season, be a top pick and possible odds-on favorite to win the whole thing.

Before we get into that though, let's take a quick look at each horse's post position, as well as their shiny new morning-line odds.

2015 Kentucky Derby Field and Odds

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Morning-Line Odds
1	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	50-1
2	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	8-1
3	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	12-1
4	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	30-1
5	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	30-1
6	Mubtaahij	Cristophe Soumillion	Mike de Kock	20-1
7	El Kabeir	Calvin Borel	John Terranova II	30-1
8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	3-1
9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	30-1
10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	12-1
11	Stanford	Florent Geroux	Todd Pletcher	30-1
12	International Star	Miguel Mena	Mike Maker	20-1
13	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	30-1
14	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	50-1
15	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	15-1
16	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50-1
17	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50-1
18	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	5-2
19	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	15-1
20	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	30-1

New Favorites Following Draw

The post position draw certainly provided the field with a bit of a shake up, but not the huge one that could have been.

For the most part, odds remained relatively static, and the top three went largely unchanged. That said, we saw Mubtaahij take a bit of a hit after drawing the six position.

Historically, the six position is one of the worst in the entire field. The six hole hasn't produced a winner since Sea Hero in 1993, and has produced just two winners period, the other coming with Iron Liege in 1957.

Garry Jones/Associated Press

In short, things could have gone better for Mubtaahij, and it shows in the difference between his pre-draw odds (14-1), via OddsShark.com, and his morning-line odds (20-1).

It may be just a bit of the unknown factoring in, as Mubtaahij is the lone shipper in this year's field. Historically, horses shipping in from overseas have not done well, and oddsmakers may have factored that in along with his post position when setting the morning-line odds.

In a sort of weird way, his odds dropping might make him more of a "favorite." Mubtaahij drawing the six position gives him a much better opportunity to tuck into the rail and rate than he would have had he drawn an outside post position.

Who knows, with the ability to get inside, and some pace on the front end, we could see a victory, albeit a less dominant one than the win Mubtaahij logged in the the UAE Derby (shown in the video below).

Give me 20-1 odds on this Dubawi colt, and I'll show you a whole lot of happy bettors cashing in on their exotic tickets.

One horse whose odds actually trended upward toward contender status was Upstart.

According to Bovada, via OddShark.com, Upstart was a middle-of-the-pack 22-1 prior to the post position draw. After receiving the 19 position, Upstart was given morning-line odds of 15-1.

Now, like the six position, the 19 hole is one of the worst to operate out of, at least from a historical perspective anyway.

Of the 24 horses who have run out of that position, only one has won the race, that being I'll Have Another in 2012. Beyond that single win, the 19 hole carries an average finishing position of 12.58, per KentuckyDerby.com.

However, Upstart is a horse that can most definitely overcome the horrendous history carried by his starting position.

In seven career starts, Upstart owns a 3-3-1 record, including a win in the Grade 2 Holy Bull, and a second-place finish in his most recent start—lost to Materiality in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.

Despite the fact that he has finished behind fellow Derby contenders Materiality, Itsaknockout and Carpe Diem, this is a horse with a legitimate chance. This Flatter colt owns the second-highest best Beyer number among Derby contenders, per DRF.com.

Sure, Beyer numbers aren't the be-all-end-all to evaluating horses, but did he, or did he not look great after riding three-wide around the track in the Florida Derby?

It won't be easy, but Upstart is a definite contender, and as multiple horse racing enthusiasts have astutely noted, in any other year, he'd be solidly in the top two choices as a Derby contender.

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