Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: Best DraftKings MLB Pitcher Picks for April 29
Every MLB team will lace up their cleats on Wednesday, with the first game starting at 12:35 p.m. ET. An overload of matchups spread throughout the day will lead many daily fantasy players to focus on the afternoon or evening slate.
Night owls need not worry about missing the opening batch of contests. Those who skip the early action still have eight bouts starting at 7:10 p.m. or later. Either way, selecting the right starting pitchers proves pivotal to profiting on DraftKings.
Not to leave anyone out in the cold, let's highlights a pair of hurlers from both the afternoon and night shifts.
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Early Ace: Andrew Cashner ($8,500) vs. Houston Astros
Entrusting a pitcher operating at Petco Park is hardly a bold move. The question is which starter gets the edge between Andrew Cashner and the red-hot Dallas Keuchel.
Having surrendered two runs through four starts, Keuchel will likely be the more heavily used play. Yet behind that 0.62 ERA lies a mediocre 18 strikeouts and 11 walks through 29 innings. Cashner, on the other hand, has submitted 26 punchouts and seven free passes through 26 frames.
Last season, the San Diego Padres righty posted a 1.43 ERA and .476 opposing OPS at Petco. He's already rattled off two strong starts at home, although he was left off the hook with four earned runs.
| 192 | 2.06 | 1.01 | 152-41 | 2.89 |
The primary reason to use Cashner over Keuchel? Strikeouts. Cashner gets more of them, and the Houston Astros once again carry the league's highest strikeout percentage. With Petco mitigating their power bats, Cashner is the safe play.
Early Value: Shane Greene ($6,400) at Minnesota Twins
The regression police, donned in Cleveland Indians attire, hit Shane Greene hard during his last outing. After yielding one run through three starts, the new Detroit Tigers righty was clobbered for eight runs on Friday.
Hold up on writing Greene's fantasy obituary. Cleveland's lefty-loaded lineup is perfectly assembled to dismantle the 26-year-old, who has surrendered a career .284/.358/.389 slash line against southpaws.
Greene's early dominance was a flash in the pan, especially if he doesn't drastically improve his 4.00 K/9 rate. The Minnesota Twins, however, sport the American League's worst weighted on-base percentage and feature few potent lefties.
Starting the season against the Twins, Greene allowed no earned runs through eight innings to snag a win. With the one blow-up outing normalizing his season stats and clearing his bandwagon, employ him as a second starter at a microscopic $6,400.
Late Ace: Gerrit Cole ($8,800) at Chicago Cubs
Look, Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke are awesome. Those who don't mess around at pitcher will give each a hard look, in which case it's wise to pony up the extra $400 for King Felix.
Yet Gerrit Cole, who comes at a cheaper $8,800, looks the part of a burgeoning ace worth using before officially gaining acceptance into the top tier. Through four starts, the 24-year-old righty has posted a 2.19 ERA backed by a 2.27 fielding independent pitching (FIP), 9.85 K/9 rate and 62.1 ground-ball percentage.
| 1 | Max Scherzer | 1.58 |
| 2 | Collin McHugh | 1.70 |
| 3 | Johnny Cueto | 1.94 |
| 4 | Adam Wainwright | 2.00 |
| 5 | Trevor Bauer | 2.08 |
| 6 | Felix Hernandez | 2.12 |
| 7 | Jon Lester | 2.16 |
| 8 | Michael Pineda | 2.22 |
| 9 | Gerrit Cole | 2.27 |
| 10 | Chris Archer | 2.34 |
A small sample, yes, but Cole is a former No. 1 pick who possesses a 3.01 FIP through 280 career innings. Health has been the only hindrance to him reaching stardom.
Although the Chicago Cubs are loaded with dangerous bats, their youth also shows with a team strikeout percentage ranked second behind Houston. Besides, Cole has already derailed Detroit this month, so a solid opponent isn't enough to steer clear of him.
Later in the season, you'll laugh about the time Cole cost this little.
Late Value: Carlos Martinez ($7,700) vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Before getting carried away over small sample sizes, Carlos Martinez's 1.37 ERA is fueled by good fortune. His .178 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) will rise, which will correct his 100 percent left on-base percentage.
That perfect strand rate means his only three runs allowed were solo home runs. Such cluster luck won't last, as there's no reason to believe the 23-year-old has a magical power of getting outs with men on base.
So why is Martinez a recommended play? DraftKings players want high-strikeout pitchers in a good position to earn that silly win. The first-year starter has fanned 21 batters in 20 innings, and he gets the Philadelphia Phillies, who possess baseball's worst weighted runs created plus (wRC+).
Aaron Harang continues to pitch well, but his offense won't offer him much support. Meanwhile, the St. Louis Cardinals' above-average lineup should string together enough runs for Martinez to maintain his unsustainable run going through April.
Avoid: Alex Wood ($8,400) vs. Washington Nationals
As such an adamant Alex Wood supporter entering the season, it hurts to ticker the Atlanta Braves lefty with caution tape. Yet his first four starts are too alarming to trust him at a steep $8,400.
After notching an 8.91 K/9 rate last season, Wood has collected 12 punchouts through 24 innings. In his last two starts, he earned one measly strikeout. Opponents are regularly making more contact, as evident by his contact percentage, swinging-strike percentage and outside-contact percentage, a measure of balls hit when batters swing at offerings off the plate:
| Contact % | 78.6 | 88.9 |
| Swinging-Strike % | 9.7 | 4.2 |
| O-Swing % | 63.7 | 83.0 |
His control has also waned, issuing at least two walks in every outing. While seasonal owners shouldn't panic just yet, daily gamers have no reason to use him on Wednesday. Since he has survived these struggles with a 3.00 ERA despite a 3.87 FIP and 4.96 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), Wood's price hasn't depreciated nearly enough to consider him a buy-low rebound.
All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
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