MLB's Major Awards Leaders Heading into May Baseball
Don't hold your breath waiting for the winners of Major League Baseball's big awards to be announced. Not unless you can hold it for six months, anyway, because that's how long the wait is.
But if all you want to know is who's in the lead for each of the major awards after one month of baseball, well, that we can manage.
What we're going to do is run through the top candidates for the major awards in the American and National League—meaning the Manager of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and Most Valuable Player—through the end of April. Each category will cover the leading candidate in depth but will also contain a nod to the top runner-up.
Step into the box whenever you're ready.
AL Manager of the Year: A.J. Hinch, Houston Astros
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There's a higher chance of mathematicians finding the exact number of pi before us baseball people find a scientific way to choose Manager of the Year candidates. The best we can do is listen to our guts.
For AL Manager of the Year, my gut proposes Houston Astros skipper A.J. Hinch. He came into the season with limited experience as a manager and in charge of an Astros club that last finished over .500 in 2008. And yet there they are comfortably atop the AL West with a record of 13-7.
That record exists despite some early adversity. George Springer, Jason Castro, Chris Carter and Evan Gattis haven't hit. Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh have been Hinch's only reliable starters, and expensive new toy Pat Neshek has been a weak spot in the bullpen.
But positive clubhouse chemistry can come in handy amid challenges like these, and one Astro says Hinch deserves credit for the chemistry he's cultivated since his arrival.
"I think A.J.'s done a great job of bringing everybody together, having team meetings, making sure that everybody can have fun but focus at the same time," shortstop Jed Lowrie told Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle earlier this month. "And I think what makes a successful team is knowing when to have fun and when to flip it on and when you have to produce and you have to perform."
Outside of Hinch, keep a close eye on New York Yankees skipper Joe Girardi. He's once again getting a roster loaded with rusty parts to perform at a high level, and his efforts will be much easier to appreciate if Houston's upstart shine wears off.
Runner-Up: Joe Girardi, New York Yankees
AL Rookie of the Year: Devon Travis, Toronto Blue Jays
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We can argue about the AL Manager of the Year, and we can argue about the AL Cy Young, AL MVP and each of the four major awards in the National League.
But the AL Rookie of the Year? Nope. That Devon Travis is the leader in the clubhouse is non-negotiable.
Travis didn't turn many heads as a prospect or when the Toronto Blue Jays acquired him in an offseason trade with the Detroit Tigers. But the diminutive second baseman is definitely turning heads now, as he's hitting .356 with a 1.097 OPS and six home runs in his first 20 games.
Never mind rookies, these numbers place Travis with the elites among all American League hitters. He's third in average and OPS and—most surprisingly of all given that Travis is only 5'9" and 190 pounds—third in slugging at .685.
Travis' extreme slugging is no accident. As Jeff Sullivan highlighted at FanGraphs, he's hitting the ball as hard as some of the AL's most notorious thumpers, including Nelson Cruz and Mike Trout.
The only AL rookie with a reasonable shot at chasing Travis down is Tampa Bay Rays right fielder Steven Souza Jr., who's hitting .254 with an .810 OPS and four home runs. But if he wants to catch Travis, he needs to start doing a lot better than that.
Runner-Up: Steven Souza Jr., Tampa Bay Rays
AL Cy Young: Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays
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This one's easy, as the American League's best pitcher is also the league's hottest pitcher: Chris Archer.
Over his last four starts, the hard-throwing Rays right-hander has pitched 26.2 innings without an earned run while racking up 32 strikeouts and walking only five. He now finds himself fourth in the AL in innings at 32.1 and third in ERA at 0.84.
Of course, it would be better if Archer was first in both categories; particularly in ERA, where Nick Martinez (0.35) and Dallas Keuchel (0.62) have him beat. But while Archer doesn't have them beat in ERA, Martinez and Keuchel can't match him in how they've achieved their ERAs.
Archer is blowing Martinez and Keuchel away in both strikeouts (10.3 K/9) and walks (1.7 BB/9). He's also been tough to square up when batters have put the ball in play against him. Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Info has him among the leaders at limiting hard contact, and he's doing that with better-than-average marks in ground balls (59.2 GB%) and pop-ups (15.8 IFFB%).
As a bonus, Archer has faced tougher competition. According to Baseball Prospectus, he ranked 16th among qualified AL pitchers in opponent quality at of the start of play Tuesday. Martinez and Keuchel were nowhere in sight of him.
If Archer has a worthy challenger, it's somebody more like Seattle Mariners righty Felix Hernandez. He has a 1.61 ERA in 28.0 innings and, like Archer, peripherals to match. And knowing his track record as a consistently kingly ace, he's probably not going to fall out of the race anytime soon.
Runner-Up: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
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AL Most Valuable Player: Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals
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There are ways to complicate MVP debates, but you can't go wrong when you have a chance to choose the league's best player who, coincidentally, also happens to play on one of the league's best teams.
In the American League, that's normally Mike Trout. But right now, it's Lorenzo Cain.
The Kansas City Royals center fielder is doing it all. He's hitting .342 with a .930 OPS, both of which place him among the American League's leading hitters. He also has five stolen bases and, as of the start of play Tuesday, was tied for the AL lead in Defensive Runs Saved at plus-seven.
Add up hitting, baserunning and defense, and what you get is Wins Above Replacement. And as far as Baseball-Reference.com's calculation of WAR was concerned Tuesday morning, Cain was by far the American League's top all-around contributor.
The Royals have certainly appreciated it. When they haven't been playing the Game of Throwns and getting into brawls worthy of They Live, they've been winning plenty of games. Their 14-6 record is the best in the American League.
But watch out for Adam Jones as a potential challenger to Cain. He's been the AL's top hitter with a .403 average and 1.158 OPS, and he's keeping afloat an otherwise mediocre Baltimore Orioles team.
Runner-Up: Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles
NL Manager of the Year: Terry Collins, New York Mets
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To repeat, there is no exact science with the Manager of the Year award. There is only gut science, and right now, the churning and bubbling favors New York Mets skipper Terry Collins.
Collins has his team out to an MLB-best 15-6 start. And though this has a lot to do with excellent pitching (3.00 ERA) and somewhat of an easy schedule, Collins has also guided the Mets through adversity.
The Mets began the year without Zack Wheeler and have since lost David Wright and Travis d'Arnaud to injuries and Jenrry Mejia to an 80-game suspension. Collins has held things together anyway, and Wright says this is because he's putting more of an emphasis on actual managing.
"This year there is less evaluating and more managing," Wright told Kevin Kernan of the New York Post. "Terry can worry about tactics instead of having to evaluate, who is going to be the guy there long-term at whatever position."
Also, we can give Collins bonus points for stepping up in the face of challenging circumstances regarding his own employment. He entered the year as a lame-duck manager and seemingly with an ultimatum from ownership to win or else. The challenge, it seems, was accepted.
Elsewhere, keep an eye on Don Mattingly. The Los Angeles Dodgers skipper has probably been mocked more than any other manager during his tenure, but he's held things together despite injuries to Kenley Jansen, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Yasiel Puig, and he'll look even better if he can keep it up with Brandon McCarthy and Carl Crawford joining the walking wounded this week.
Runner-Up: Don Mattingly, Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Rookie of the Year: Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers
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The early National League Rookie of the Year race doesn't have a Devon Travis. It's much more wide open than the American League race.
But the leader, by a nose, looks like Joc Pederson.
The Dodgers center fielder is only hitting a modest .296 but with a .458 on-base percentage and a .556 slugging percentage that add up to a 1.014 OPS. That OBP is good for third among all National League hitters, and that OPS is good for fourth.
Pederson isn't just off to a hot start offensively. He's also been playing some quality defense in center field, with plus-two Defensive Runs Saved and a 0.6 Ultimate Zone Rating through Monday. Between that and his offensive contributions, it's no wonder he woke up Tuesday morning blowing away all qualified NL rookies in WAR.
If there's a challenger to keep an eye on, it's Cincinnati Reds right-hander Anthony DeSclafani. He doesn't have the peripherals to back up his NL-best 1.04 ERA, but it's also not a total fluke. Refer back to Simon's leaderboard for hard-contact limiters, and you'll spot DeSclafani in the top 20.
Runner-Up: Anthony DeSclafani, Cincinnati Reds
NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
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If for no other reason than Clayton Kershaw has yet to turn his Clayton Kershaw dial to 11, the National League Cy Young race looks like another wide-open contest.
But Max Scherzer sure looks like the lead candidate. The Washington Nationals ace has a 1.26 ERA that ranks second in the NL behind only DeSclafani, and he has DeSclafani beat in innings (28.2), strikeouts (9.1 K/9) and walks (1.3 BB/9).
Scherzer has also been tough to square up on balls that have been put in play. Though he's mainly a fly-ball pitcher, Simon's leaderboard puts him in the top 10 among hard-hit limiters.
Per Baseball Prospectus, the one thing Scherzer hasn't done in the early going is rack up numbers against quality competition. Through that lens, Dodgers right-hander Zack Greinke looks good, as he's compiled a 1.35 ERA and strong peripherals against some really tough customers.
But while that puts Greinke within sight of Scherzer, his opponent quality isn't quite enough to overrule Scherzer's advantages in innings, strikeouts, walks and hard-hit rate. Until further notice, Scherzer's the man to beat.
Runner-Up: Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Most Valuable Player: Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers
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The National League doesn't have a player who's dominating in every phase of the game like Lorenzo Cain is in the American League. We have to go with the next best thing.
That would be the best hitter, which is Adrian Gonzalez by a mile.
The Dodgers first baseman has cooled down since his surface-of-the-sun-hot start to 2015, but his numbers still boggle the mind. He's hitting .377 with an NL-best seven homers and MLB-bests in slugging (.766) and OPS (1.195). Among NL hitters, Gonzalez has a laughably large lead in adjusted offense.
With little baserunning and defensive value to add to his hitting value, Gonzalez isn't lighting up the WAR leaderboard. But he did enter Tuesday leading his fellow National Leaguers, and that value has been put to good use by a Dodgers team that's in first place in the NL West at 12-8.
The closest challenger to Gonzalez is Matt Carpenter. He's quietly hitting .373 with a 1.067 OPS, and he's also playing decent defense at the hot corner for a St. Louis Cardinals team that's leading the NL Central.
Maybe we'll be talking more about him in the future. But for now, Gonzalez has more cooling down to do before he's no longer leading the NL MVP race.
Runner-Up: Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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