Handicapping Baseball's Best Bets to Slug 40 Home Runs in 2015

Forty is the new 50.

That's the truth when it comes to big league big flies. Last year, Nelson Cruz was the only MLB player who entered the 40-home run club. The season before that, there were just two members.

As the major league campaign ramps up, the question is just how many players will crack that elusive plateau this time around. In the process of handicapping baseball's best bets to break 40, three primary factors were taken into consideration:

• A given player's track record
• How the player has started in 2015
• Where the candidate plays his home games

As the reigning home run king, Cruz is right in the middle of the conversation. But a healthy Miguel Cabrera also garners plenty of support, while more than a few rising stars enter the fray.

The Field

GAIL BURTON/Associated Press

Before listing the top 10 contenders, it's worth taking a look at some of the mashers who have an outside chance of gaining membership in the 40-homer club.

The way he's been racking up bombs at Fenway Park, Hanley Ramirez has the best chance of any of the players comprising the following list. Meanwhile, the resurgent Mark Teixeira is definitely the most unexpected inclusion on the list:

• Pedro Alvarez, 1B, Pittsburgh Pirates
• Josh Donaldson, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
• Lucas Duda, 1B, New York Mets
• Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
• Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
• Bryce Harper, RF, Washington Nationals
• Matt Kemp, RF, San Diego Padres
• David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox
• Hanley Ramirez, LF, Boston Red Sox
• Justin Upton, LF, San Diego Padres

10. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs

The Contender

It's easy to forget just how young Anthony Rizzo is.

Now embarking upon his fifth season in the bigs, the Chicago Cubs' first baseman is just 25 years old. As the lefty cements his status as one of the premier young power hitters in the game, his pop has been growing steadily. Check out his home run outputs over the past three seasons:

With all of the buzz surrounding Wrigley Field these days, Rizzo has been cutting a relatively low profile on the North Side. That will all change if Rizzo racks up 40 this season.

9. Jose Bautista, RF, Toronto Blue Jays

The Contender

It's a good thing that Jose Bautista plays for the Toronto Blue Jays because what he does to baseballs would be illegal in most states.

The five-time All-Star isn't just a former member of the 40-homer club, but of the 50-blast crew, as well. Back in 2010, Bautista smashed 54 home runs on his way to placing fourth in the American League MVP Award voting.

When a guy has as much pop as Bautista does, a pitcher would be wise not to get him mad. Jason Garcia of the Baltimore Orioles learned that first-hand on April 21. After the righty threw behind Bautista, the slugger immediately parked a shot beyond the wall in left-center field.

Following the game, Bautista shared his thoughts on the matter via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet: "I play with a lot of passion, you throw at me, I’m not going to forget. If I get you right after then I’m going to enjoy it. And I did."

Lesson learned for the O's.

8. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/DH, Toronto Blue Jays

The Contender

Edwin Encarnacion has one funky looking stance, but it sure delivers results.

Last year, the Dominican connected on 34 shots, even though he only appeared in 128 games for the Toronto Blue Jays. Over the past three seasons, the first baseman/designated hitter has averaged 37.3 dingers for the AL East squad.

As you can see in the video above, Encarnacion has the kind of power that allows him to hit a baseball way out of any yard. Plus, it doesn't hurt that he calls the Rogers Centre home. According to ESPN's Park Factor Rankings, the third-most homers per game were hit at the Blue Jays' stadium in 2014.

7. Chris Carter, 1B/DH, Houston Astros

The Contender

The scary part about Chris Carter is that he doesn't even have to get all of a pitch to hit it out.

The Houston Astros' first baseman/designated hitter has what can best be described as easy power. As you can see above, the 28-year-old can take a leisurely swing and still deposit a home run beyond the fence in right-center.

There's no avoiding the fact that Carter often swings and misses. Last year, he checked in with 182 punchouts. At the same time, you can't avoid his power numbers. In 2014, he collected 37 homers, a total that was tied for second in baseball.

6. Adam Jones, CF, Baltimore

The Contender

Adam Jones is en fuego.

The Baltimore Orioles' center fielder has stormed out of the gates, posting a .380 average while tallying five home runs. It's been an awesome start for the four-time All-Star, but history suggests that putting up a 40-home run campaign will be a big task.

Jones' highest output came back in 2013 when he totaled 33. While his track record works against him, his 2015 showing leaves room for optimism. At least one scout thinks Jones is ready to kick up his game a notch. "He's gone to another level," the talent evaluator said, via Jayson Stark of ESPN. "And I think he may sustain it."

As the Orioles angle for consecutive AL East crowns, the club certainly wouldn't mind if that next level included Jones piling up 40 blasts.

5. Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels

The Contender

Mike Trout is the youngest player ever to total 100 home runs and 100 steals, per the MLB on Fox Twitter account.

Not bad for the 23-year-old.

One milestone that the Los Angeles Angels' center fielder has yet to hit is the 40-home run season. In 2014, the right-handed batter was on the doorstep of getting it done. Trout went yard 36 times for the Halos last season, and has already tallied five round-trippers in 2015.

4. Jose Abreu, 1B, Chicago White Sox

The Contender

Give Jose Abreu 162 games and he'll hit 40 homers.

Per ESPN Stats & Info, the Cuban clubbed 40 yard shots in his initial 162 career games for the Chicago White Sox. In his first 21 contests in 2015, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year has totaled five.

What makes Abreu such a serious threat to join the 40-homer club is that the right-handed hitter can literally leave the park from foul pole to foul pole.

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers

The Contender

With a .360 average, a 1.061 OPS and five home runs, it looks like Miguel Cabrera is definitely back to 100 percent.

That's terrible news for AL pitchers, but it's great news for the two-time MVP's chances of going for 40. Accomplishing that feat would be nothing new for the 32-year-old. During his back-to-back MVP campaigns in 2012 and 2013, Cabrera cracked 44 homers on both occasions.

So far in 2015, Cabrera has looked a lot more like that vintage Miggy than the hobbled slugger who took the field for the Detroit Tigers a season ago.

2. Giancarlo Stanton, RF, Miami Marlins

The Contender

Giancarlo Stanton endured a quiet start to the 2015 season.

The Miami Marlins' right fielder didn't connect on a single shot in his first nine games. That dry spell is now a thing of the past, as Stanton has since homered six times for the Fish.

When Stanton connects, he really connects. Dating back to 2012, Stanton has 18 home runs of 450 feet or more, per David Schoenfield of ESPN. As Schoenfield notes, that's not just more than any other player—it's more than any other team.

One minor consideration that could play against Stanton's pursuit of 40 is the reality that Marlins Park isn't the best place to go yard. Per ESPN's Park Factor Rankings, the stadium had the fifth-lowest home run rate in baseball a season ago. Of course, the way Stanton hits them, that might not matter much.

1. Nelson Cruz, RF, Seattle Mariners

The Contender

Nelson Cruz gets top billing because he's the most recent big leaguer to actually accomplish a 40-home run campaign.

Early on in 2015, the Seattle Mariners' right fielder has been on an absolute tear, clocking 13 home runs to grab the big league lead.

Of course, going on a tear is exactly what the remarkably streaky Cruz does best. Last season, on his way to hitting 40 home runs, the vet connected for 13 in May alone. Aside from that outburst, Cruz never hit more than six during a single month.

Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com. All videos courtesy of MLB.com.

If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.