Realistic Draft Trade Possibilities for the Houston Texans
On Thursday night, the Houston Texans have a few big decisions to make.
With the luxury of 10 overall picks in this year's NFL draft, the Texans have the delicate problem of deciding what position is of priority in the first round. At No. 16, the Texans should feel pretty comfortable finding an elite wide receiver, linebacker or cornerback, but what if better talent is available earlier? Should the Texans really consider a trade?
If general manager Rick Smith is serious about improving the franchise, moving up in the first round could be the way to go. It’s not like Smith is inexperienced in the trade department either—in 2008 a trade with the Baltimore Ravens landed the Texans Duane Brown, and a year before two second-round picks were sent to the Atlanta Falcons in exchange for Matt Schaub.
Fast forward to 2015, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see the Texans negotiate with other teams to move up. Not only is it a possibility in the first round, Days 2 and 3 could also see movement from the Texans at the 51st or 82nd spot, which is an advantage of having so many picks to play with.
If it’s a quarterback or even a surprise running back like Todd Gurley the Texans are after, here’s a look at all of the potential trade curveballs Smith might throw our way.
Texans Trade Up for Elite Quarterback
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The Texans have every right to question Brian Hoyer going into next season. Some faith could be put into Tom Savage, and after Ryan Mallett’s strong game against the Browns in Week 11 last year, the Texans aren’t incredibly desperate at quarterback just yet.
Still, if the Texans wanted to, they could trade up to land a guy like Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston this year. This would make them feel a lot more secure at the position. Realistically there's a very slim chance of this happening, and since no one really knows what it would take, it’s fair to say the Texans would have to give up more than just the 16th spot and a few future picks to make it happen.
If the Texans were seriously targeting Mariota or Winston, obviously they would have to trade into the top two spots to make it happen. That means Rick Smith getting on the phone to the Tennessee Titans, a team that is going to hear plenty from teams around the league come Thursday.
Texans Trade No. 16 and Late-Round Pick for No. 8 from Falcons
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The Texans need to find a cornerback, and if the draft goes as predicted, Houston could land a big-name guy like Trae Waynes or Kevin Johnson if they’re willing to trade up.
The beauty of having so many late-round picks (three in the fifth round and two in the sixth) is the Texans have a lot of trade bait to lure teams in if the offer is right.
Waynes and Johnson may fall later than the Falcons' No. 8 spot, but if the Texans were seriously targeting one of these guys, Atlanta or the Chicago Bears might be the teams to call. The Texans would have to offer their No. 16 pick and perhaps two late-round picks or potential future picks to move into the top 10, and with the Falcons likely targeting a defensive end, they might be happy to slide down a few spots.
A lot depends on what the Texans want to give up, and who they are actually targeting. At 16, they could easily land a solid corner like Jalen Collins, but if they’re high on Johnson or Waynes, there’s a good chance a trade into the top 10 happens.
Texans Trade Up in Second Round for Cameron Erving
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Longtime center Chris Myers has moved on, so that means the Texans need to find a replacement in the draft or free agency.
It would be a wait-and-see situation, but if Florida State’s Cameron Erving does fall to the second round, the Texans would be wise to fill this hole with the No. 1 overall talent at the position, rather than waiting until a later round.
The Texans might have to surrender a couple of their fifth-round picks to really make this happen. Not to mention with Erving’s talent, a trade with the Tennessee Titans or Tampa Bay Buccaneers would have to happen if Rick Smith wanted to secure Erving early in the second.
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Texans Go 'All In' for Todd Gurley
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Arian Foster’s contract is still a major talking point in Houston, and for all of the talk about cornerbacks and wide receivers, it wouldn’t be a huge shock to see the Texans secure their running back for the future on Day 1.
The value of running backs in the draft seems to fluctuate each year, but after the Dallas Cowboys proved in 2014 how valuable a great runner can be to a struggling offense, the same blueprint could be used in Houston with Todd Gurley.
Gurley’s range is anywhere between pick one through to 20, and the only teams that appear to be real contenders for him are the Rams, Jaguars and Vikings. If Jacksonville does what we all think they do, and drafts Leonard Williams, the Texans could still pick Gurley at No. 16.
Depending on what happens, the Texans may only have to trade up two or three spots. Gurley could be the centerpiece of the offense in a few years, and while his knee heals, Foster carries out his time in style.
Texans Trade Multiple Picks for Philip Rivers
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It’s fun to think about, but unlikely to happen. Still, what if the Texans did decide to trade their first-round pick for Philip Rivers? It would give the offense the franchise player it deserves, and Bill O’Brien would have his best shot at taking the Texans to the Super Bowl.
The Chargers won’t give Rivers up for just a first-round pick. In the Texans' case it would take No. 16, a second-round pick and perhaps a couple of late-round selections to secure the longtime San Diego starter, which is hardly worth it.
On the flip side, the Texans have a very small shot at drafting a top-tier passer in the first round anyway, so I guess it depends on how serious Rick Smith is about finding a quarterback this offseason.
Rivers will probably wind up in the AFC South. Just not on the Texans.
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