Why Drafting Amari Cooper at No. 2 Overall Could Be Titans' Safest Move

We’ve reached the point where groupthink has taken its grip prior to the NFL draft. That’s the natural conclusion after months of mocking, with every possible scenario explored.

The direction at No. 2 overall—the precious, draft-anchoring pick owned by the Tennessee Titans—generally comes down to one of two options: They’re either taking Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota or graciously accepting a bounty of picks from one of several suitors while trading down.

There’s still a possibility they select USC defensive end Leonard Williams, as the athletic giant who had 36.5 tackles for a loss over three collegiate seasons is also commonly linked to the Titans if they stay at No. 2.

However, Williams may not be an ideal fit for the Titans’ 3-4 scheme. Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean gunned down the thought of Williams coming to Tennessee, citing greater needs.

The well-connected Wyatt then floated another scenario, which, remarkably in late April, doesn't surface quite as often.

If the Titans don’t get their asking price for the No. 2 pick in a trade, and they pass on Mariota because talk about their current quarterback Zach Mettenberger being a “poor man’s Tom Brady” (per The Tennessean’s David Climer) isn’t just offseason nonsense, then whose name gets called when they’re on the clock?

For Wyatt the answer is Amari Cooper, the Alabama wide receiver who’s arguably the draft’s safest offensive player.

Initially that would be shocking because it goes against convention. It doesn’t take much clicking to find a sample of mock drafts all pegging Mariota as Tennessee's next quarterback. Between NFL.com and CBSSports.com, six of the 10 draft analysts have Mariota beginning his transition to a pro-style offense with the Titans.

Then there’s former Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager Mark Dominik, who used the word “certain” when discussing the draft leading with two quarterbacks.

"

As I said back in January, I am still certain Winston and Mariota will go 1-2 in the NFL draft. I also feel UCLA QB Hundley should go in 1st

— Mark Dominik (@MarkdominikESPN) April 26, 2015"

But it’s not difficult to imagine a Titans draft approach that values safety, especially when the head coach and general manager are grasping at whatever job security they have left. Ken Whisenhunt’s first season as the sideline boss featured all of two wins, and the Titans still haven’t reached even the .500 mark during Ruston Webster’s three years as general manager.

If this draft is handled with delicate care, the case for making Cooper a franchise cornerstone over Mariota starts with one question.

Who exactly would Mariota be throwing to in his first year?

Again, time isn’t a luxury Whisenhunt and Webster have, and they need to show significant progress in 2015. With Mariota—or, really, any rookie starter—the weapons available would consist of tight end Delanie Walker, top wideout Kendall Wright and then prayers.

Wide receivers Harry Douglas and Hakeem Nicks have been signed this offseason. They’re not solutions and are instead merely used Band-Aids thrown at a waterfall.

Douglas will turn 31 years old just after the 2015 season begins. He’s been a No. 3 receiver throughout most of his career, operating primarily from the slot. He had one outlier season in 2013 with the Atlanta Falcons when fellow receiver Roddy White was injured for much of the year. As a result, Douglas posted 1,067 receiving years, though at a meager pace of 12.6 yards per reception.

The faint promise provided by that season is swell. But at this point in his career Douglas isn’t going to have a sudden transformation, becoming the 2013 version of himself regularly. The larger sample size of Douglas’ career shows a receiver who hasn't been able to escape depth-chart burials.

Category	Average
Receiving yards	521.8
Receptions	43
Touchdowns	1.3

Over six NFL seasons Douglas has caught six touchdown passes while averaging 34.4 receiving yards per game.

But at least he offers a glimpse of recent success. Meanwhile, Nicks stinks of failure and a broken body/career. Leg injuries have zapped Nicks of the explosive speed and agility that once led to thoughts of a promising future. Somehow he’s still only 27 years old, but his body is at least 62.

Nicks last topped the 1,000-yard mark as a receiver in 2011, which is the equivalent of a decade ago in football years. Similar to what we did with Douglas, let’s take a look at Nicks’ averages since then.

Category	Average
Receiving yards	664.3
Receptions	49
Touchdowns	2.3

The problem with accumulating veterans clinging to their careers is that, by their very nature, it’s an accomplishment if those players produce league-average numbers. Right now two of the Titans’ top-four receiving slots are occupied by career clingers, and above them is a potential draft bust.

Justin Hunter may not be the answer, either

The Titans’ search for a complementary option alongside Wright led to selecting Justin Hunter with their 34th overall pick in 2013. It was a pricey draft investment and one that’s already testing patience.

The rosy, cheery outlook is that Hunter is only through two seasons, and often a true breakout doesn’t happen until a receiver’s third year. The more realistic outlook is rooted in this cold number: Hunter averaged only 1.32 yards per route run in 2014, per Pro Football Focus, which was 68th among the 90 receivers who accounted for at least 25 percent of their team’s targets.

Hunter was nearly a first-round pick because of his raw athleticism and long, 6’4” frame with a wide catch radius. But that hasn’t translated into an increased role or production yet. Hunter has appeared in 26 career games, and his per-game average is a tiny 32.8 yards.

Sure, he’s suffered through quarterback injuries and an overall awfulness at the position in Tennessee. But Wright has been receiving passes from the same carousel of suck over the past two years.

Receiver	Receptions	Receiving yards	Touchdowns
Kendall Wright	151	1,794	8
Justin Hunter	46	852	7

Cooper would also be receiving passes from a quarterback in Mettenberger who is, at best, a developmental project still progressing early in his career. But he has the rare makeup of a receiver who can break through that quarterback anchor and still produce at a high level.

Cooper is safe and dynamic

Cooper led the nation in 2014 with 124 receptions and was second with 1,727 receiving yards. He had three 200-plus yard games, often winning deep with the 4.42 speed in the 40-yard dash showcased during the NFL combine.

But his bag of football-catching and body-dodging tricks includes a skill central to success when potentially dealing with replacement-level quarterback play early in his career. Cooper can create his own gains and do it consistently.

He led all draft-eligible receivers in both yards per route run (3.97) and missed tackles forced (26), according to College Football Focus. When the ball is placed in Cooper’s hands he has the vision to identify open space after the catch following quick, short throws, and both the speed and elusiveness to get there.

Cooper is a prospect with the tools to be successful immediately, regardless of who’s around him.

Mariota is supremely gifted too, but giving a quarterback mediocre support as he adjusts to the pro game behind a poor offensive line (the Titans allowed 50 sacks in 2014) isn’t a recipe for quick results.

And if they enjoy being employed, Whisenhunt and Webster need to win now.