Kentucky Derby 2015 Horses: Pre-Draw Odds for Contenders and Sleepers
The post-position draw for the Kentucky Derby is tomorrow, April 29, and it should bring us a whole new outlook on the race's 141st running.
No horse running out of the 17 hole has ever won the Derby. However, running out of the two, five or 10 positions gives one a great shot at finishing in the money, per KentuckyDerby.com.
In short, Wednesday's post-position draw is going to serve as quite the shakeup.
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Picking a horse to back in the Derby is confusing enough given the fact that there are 20 horses to choose from, and each one of them is capable of being a "favorite" in a lesser field.
So, before the post-positiion draw forces you to file your racing forms into the "I don't know what to do with this godforsaken race" folder, let's take one final look at the Derby field, their odds and some contenders and sleepers worth backing in this year's Run for the Roses.
Pre-Draw Odds
The chart below details the pre-draw odds for the projected Derby field:
| American Pharoah | 13-5 | 7-2 | Bob Baffert |
| Dortmund | 4-1 | 4-1 | Bob Baffert |
| Carpe Diem | 15-2 | 10-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Mubtaahij | 10-1 | 12-1 | Mike de Kock |
| Materiality | 14-1 | 12-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Firing Line | 16-1 | 15-1 | Simon Callaghan |
| Frosted | 16-1 | 15-1 | Kiaran McLaughlin |
| Upstart | 20-1 | 12-1 | Richard Violette Jr. |
| International Star | 20-1 | 15-1 | Mike Maker |
| El Kabeir | 33-1 | 30-1 | John Terranova II |
| Far Right | 33-1 | 30-1 | Ron Moquett |
| Bolo | 40-1 | 30-1 | Carla Gaines |
| Danzig Moon | 40-1 | 30-1 | Mark Casse |
| Itsaknockout | 40-1 | 30-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Mr. Z | 40-1 | 50-1 | D. Wayne Lukas |
| Ocho Ocho Ocho | 40-1 | 50-1 | Jim Cassidy |
| Keen Ice | 50-1 | N/A | Dale Romans |
| Tencendur | 66-1 | 30-1 | George Weaver |
| War Story | N/A | 30-1 | Tom Amoss |
| Stanford | N/A | 30-1 | Todd Pletcher |
Currently, Bovada—via Odds Shark—has four horses with odds of 10-1 or better. That figures to change as we move closer to race day, but right now, there are some intriguing "sleeper" options hiding in the middle of the pack. We'll take a look at them, as well as the top contenders in the sections below.
Contenders to Watch
Obviously, American Pharoah (13-5), Dortmund (4-1), Carpe Diem (15-2) and Mubtaahij (10-1) merit watching given their status as the top-four selections according to Bovada.
AP is the logical pick for first choice, as the Pioneerof the Nile colt flashed a truly dominant form in his eight-length romp over the rest of the field in the Arkansas Derby earlier this month. Meanwhile, Dortmund worked well in his final trial at Santa Anita, arrived at Churchill and is just a physically imposing monster of a horse.
Carpe Diem is one of six horses pegged as a potential Derby winner by Brian Zipse of HorseRacingNation.com.
The reasoning behind his choice is solid, as Carpe Diem's bloodlines (son of Giant's Causeway) suggest that he's well-suited for the 1.25-mile distance he'll run up against in the Derby. Beyond the bloodlines, though, that thirst for distance was on full display during his last victory in the Grade One Blue Grass Stakes as Carpe Diem began to pull away willingly from Derby contender Danzig Moon in the stretch run (shown in video below).
After that, fourth choice, Mubtaahij, has had over a month to recuperate and train in preparation for the Derby. At 10-1, this would be a great horse to key in second or third on your exacta or trifecta tickets, but he's also capable of winning, even more so when you factor in the way he trounced his competition at the UAE Derby.
Don't take my word for it, though. Watch the Dubawi colt get shown the whip once, then pull away to a convincing eight-length victory in the UAE Derby:
Sleepers to Watch
Looking for an underdog to put all your faith in? Well, you're in luck, because there's a whole slew of them worth backing in this year's Derby.
If you're asking me, Far Right is the best "underdog" in the field.
A second-place finisher to American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby, Far Right was a back-to-back winner in the Southwest Stakes (Grade 3) and the Smarty Jones. Both races were run at Oaklawn Park, but Far Right does have an ever-important victory at Churchill, as well as a second- and third-place showing on his resume.
In addition to the experience both against high-class competition, and over the dirt track at Churchill, jockey Mike Smith said he left a little in the tank for this Saturday's race:
That extra bit of energy, as well as his pedigree, suggest that he should be game come Derby day. Oh yeah, and there's the fact that he's 33-1 (!), so there's plenty of money to be made in backing the young colt.
Behind Far Right is another great underdog in the 16-1 shot, Frosted.
As shown in the video below, this Tapit colt had a strong showing in the Wood Memorial (Grade 1), besting fellow Derby contenders Tencendur and El Kabeir.
The Wood has produced some interesting horses in recent years, including Wicked Strong last year. That now four-year-old son of Hard Spun went on to post fourth-place finishes in both the Derby and the Belmont Stakes before finishing first and second in the Jim Dandy (Grade 2) and Travers Stakes (Grade 1), respectively.
As far as Frosted goes though, we look back to that win in the Wood where he was wholly impressive. In that race, I see a horse who was trapped running wide the whole way around the track yet still managed to finish a full two lengths in front of second-place finisher Tencendur, under a hand-ride nonetheless!
Joel Rosario stood on him all the way into the turn for home, and that type of victory leaves one to believe that we may not have even seen Frosted's best effort yet. Though trainer Kiaran McLaughlin hasn't won a Derby yet—he finished second with Closing Argument in 2005—he'll have Frosted ready to go come May 2.
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