Contender or Pretender: MLB's Playoff Hopefuls After 1 Month
The Major League Baseball season is officially at the three-week period, and it is creeping up on the one-month benchmark as teams jockey for their positions in the standings.
To this point, some of the typical postseason contenders are playing up to expectations. The Los Angeles Dodgers, Detroit Tigers and St. Louis Cardinals all sit in first place, expectedly.
Then there are teams like the Tampa Bay Rays, Houston Astros and New York Mets. Many thought them to be better than they were a season ago, but few, if any, expected them to sit atop their respective divisions as the one-month mark nears. That does not necessarily make all of them early-season wonders who will eventually fade into irrelevancy.
That is why it is time to play “Contender or Pretender” with the teams who have shown signs of life through the first three weeks of the season. We will focus on all the division leaders for obvious reasons, as well as any club near the top of the standings or hovering around the .500 mark.
It is important to note, however, we are leaving out teams expected to eventually contend but that are off to disappointing starts, i.e. the Washington Nationals and Seattle Mariners.
The American League East
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We are starting off analyzing an entire division because through Sunday, all five teams were either above .500 or a game below. And they can all legitimately be called playoff contenders at this early stage.
The Tampa Bay Rays are tied at the top of the division, and surprisingly, they have been a steady offensive club despite not having Ben Zobrist, their best player last season. They rank third in the league in walks and fourth in OBP.
But they still butter their bread with the rotation. It ranks second in the AL with a 3.36 ERA, first with a 1.08 WHIP and fourth with 94 strikeouts.
Because they can pitch, and because they just got back Drew Smyly, will get No. 1 starter Alex Cobb back soon and will eventually have Matt Moore at some point this season, the Rays are certainly a threat to continue their good play over the next five months.
“When [Alex] Cobb gets back, it's probably the best pitching staff in the league,” Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons told reporters. “They have a very athletic team. They're confident right now.”
The New York Yankees are tied with the Rays at the top of the division, and their plus-21 run differential is second in the AL. They are getting big-time contributions from Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner and Masahiro Tanaka, and Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Pineda could soon be joining that group. Plus, their bullpen has the second-lowest ERA (1.86) and the most strikeouts (70) in the league.
The Yankees, if healthy, are undoubtedly a contender.
While the Boston Red Sox currently sit above .500, they have a minus-seven run differential because of their brutally bad rotation, which has a major league-worst 5.75 ERA. That has led to the bullpen throwing 71.1 innings already, the second most in the majors.
Without the help of a blockbuster trade, starting pitching will continue to be a huge problem for the Red Sox, thus making them a pretender for now.
"Rick Porcello and Wade Miley have allowed a combined 35 runs this year. The entire Pirates starting rotation has allowed 34 runs this year.
— Ryan Hannable (@RyanHannable) April 27, 2015"
The Blue Jays and the defending champion Baltimore Orioles are both a game below. 500. The Orioles lead the league in home runs, slugging and OPS. But what makes them a pretender right now is their 5.04 staff ERA and the 5.42 mark the starters have posted.
Until that is straightened out, they are in the same boat as the Red Sox.
The Blue Jays feel Baltimore’s pain because their starters have the third-worst ERA (5.06) in the league and the second-worst WHIP (1.49). Like Boston and Baltimore, Toronto cannot be a contender unless its pitching struggles straighten out.
Contender: Los Angeles Dodgers
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The payroll is record-setting, and the roster is deep. So deep, in fact, manager Don Mattingly cannot find enough playing time for guys like Alex Guerrero and Scott Van Slyke.
“You put things together during the winter knowing who your personnel is and how you think you see it working,” Mattingly told Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times last week. “Sometimes, you stay with that course. Other times, you have to get off that course.”
The team’s current course has it winning nine of its last 13. The offense is rolling—first in the NL in home runs (27), OBP (.349), slugging (.480) and OPS (.830) and second in doubles (43) and average (.270). The bullpen has been much better than expected—third-lowest ERA (2.63) and the most strikeouts (71) in the league—and that is without closer Kenley Jansen being healthy enough to make his season debut, which should come in a couple weeks or so.
The rotation is still waiting for Clayton Kershaw to round into ace form and for Hyun-Jin Ryu to come back from his shoulder issues that have kept him from pitching this season. But it’s not crazy to think both those things will happen soon.
Of course, this is a contending team, and one with realistic World Series aspirations.
Contender: Detroit Tigers
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They can pitch. They can hit. They have a plus-14 run differential. They have an ace in David Price. They have an MVP candidate in Miguel Cabrera. They have one of the best supporting casts in the game between Jose Iglesias, J.D. Martinez, Shane Greene and Alfredo Simon.
Their soft spot, as expected, is in the bullpen. But a team can overcome that during the regular season, as we’ve seen with several teams in the recent past, including with the Tigers as well as the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Therefore, the Tigers are a major contender. And if they can fix their bullpen problems, which can be addressed through non-blockbuster trades, they are a not only a legitimate playoff team but one capable of winning the American League pennant.
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Pretender: Chicago Cubs
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The Cubs were supposed to be a season away from being for real. They were supposed to have too many young, unproven players in their lineup. And the rotation that they somewhat remade over the offseason was good, but not great.
However, through the first three weeks, the Cubs have proven to be legit in a small sample.
The offense ranks in the league’s top five in OBP, slugging, OPS and walks, although it is also has the third-most strikeouts. The bullpen has also been a pleasant surprise, putting up a 2.84 ERA and the third-lowest WHIP (1.11) in the league.
The problem is the rotation, which has the third-highest ERA (4.32) in the NL. Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lester all have ERAs north of 5.00. And opposing lineups are hitting .300 or better against Hammel and Lester, players who figured to see their numbers improve by moving from the American League to the National League.
Again, this is still a small sample of games—they are 10-7—and it is possible for the rotation to turn things around. It is also possible that the lineup’s youth and inexperience catches up to it, and it does not produce at its current level throughout the first half.
The jury is still mostly out on the Cubs, but it ought to be leaning toward pretender until the rotation rights itself.
Contender: New York Mets
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Matt Harvey’s return from Tommy John surgery has given the Mets a true. Jacob deGrom is a legitimate No. 2 starter for a rotation that showed significant promise.
The lineup has blossoming talents like Lucas Duda, Travis d’Arnaud, Wilmer Flores and Juan Lagares, and a strong, productive veteran presence in David Wright before he hit the DL with a hamstring strain.
Thanks in part to a bullpen that has put up a 2.42 ERA that is good for second in the league, the Mets boast a solid club that was expected to improve on a 79-win 2014. But hardly anyone saw them jumping out to a 14-5 start or winning 11 consecutive games to help them to a 4.5-game lead in the National League East.
Wright is not expected to come off the DL Thursday when he is eligible, but a return the following week seems realistic as of now. As for catcher d’Arnaud, who went on the DL with a fractured finger, he is likely about a month away from coming back, and his return will give the Mets another solid bat in the lineup.
Despite that injury bug biting the Mets, they are still contenders with a plus-25 run differential in an NL East that is turning out to be softer than expected.
Fox Sports 1's Kevin Burkhardt agrees:
"@PeoplesPodcasta I think they are serious. World Series? Not sure about that, but playoffs.
— Kevin Burkhardt (@kevinburkhardt) April 25, 2015"
Pretender: Houston Astros
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All of the promising prospects the Astros have stockpiled over their recent losing years are finally budding into major league players, or nearing that point. As a result, the team is performing at an unexpectedly high level through its first 18 games, helped greatly by a 7-2 road record.
The Astros have also gone 8-2 over their last 10 games, winning series against the Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners and Oakland A’s, all teams expected to finish above the Astros in the American League West.
They have also reached 11 wins faster this season than they have since 2006, when it took them 16 games.
"The Houston Astros are 11-7 and in first place in the AL West. SEASON // GAME ASTROS WON #11 2015 18 2014 35 2013 41
— Ryan Field (@RyanFieldFS1) April 27, 2015"
While this is an impressive start to the season, Houston’s rotation is still mostly unproven, and the lineup still leads the majors in strikeouts. That means, for now, the Astros are more pretender than legitimate contender.
Contender: Kansas City Royals
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They might have been the surprise team of 2014, but the Kansas City Royals are hardly sneaking up on anyone this year.
Despite losing No. 1 starter James Shields, the Royals’ pitching is still strong. Their dominant bullpen leads from the back, posting a major league-best 0.78 ERA in 58 innings. It happens to be doing this with the third-lowest strikeout total (51) in the league, but its 15 walks are tied for the fewest in the majors.
That the Royals are a half-game back of the Detroit Tigers is not stunning, but that their offense has been about the best in the league is. They lead the AL in average (.295) and are second in OBP (.355), slugging (.438) and OPS (.793) entering Monday. Their 36 doubles and six triples are good for third and second in the league, respectively.
That pitching-offense combination, along with MLB’s best defense, has given the Royals a major league-best plus-30 run differential. That kind of production from all sides assures that the Royals are season-long contenders.
“In a market like ours, we may not be able to afford top-of-the-rotation pitchers, or a power bat,” Royals general manager Dayton Moore told The Associated Press during spring training. “But what helps your starting pitchers? A good bullpen. What makes them better? Defense. So what we tried to do was make sure we have as many quality defenders and speed-type players as possible.”
Contender: St. Louis Cardinals
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There is no question that losing Adam Wainwright for any significant period of time is awful news for the Cardinals. But when it turns out that his limping off the field Saturday night could be the last time he steps on said field this season, that is downright devastating:
"Sources: Expectation is that #STLCards’ Wainwright is done for season with Achilles injury. Has not yet undergone MRI.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) April 26, 2015"
If Wainwright is indeed done for the season, two facts are working in the Cardinals’ favor. First, they have the starting pitching to absorb the hit because Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez are proving to be front-line arms in 2015. Second, the National League Central could soften enough as the season wears on that the Cardinals remain its top team even without their ace.
While the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates appear to be solid clubs, they do not look nearly as complete as St. Louis. Even minus Wainwright, the Cards are still the contender to beat.
Contender: Los Angeles Angels
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The Angles boasted one of the league’s best offenses last season, leading it in runs and ranking fourth in OBP, slugging and OPS. This season has been a drastic fall as the Angels are 13th out of 15 AL teams in OBP, slugging and OPS.
The pitching has been decent, ranking sixth in overall ERA (3.73), helping the team manage a plus-one differential. It has not been without its own struggles, though. Former ace Jered Weaver has a 5.24 ERA through four starts, and Matt Shoemaker, who had a 3.04 ERA as a rookie last year, has a 6.46 ERA over his first three starts.
What is promising is they still have the best player in the league, Mike Trout, and it’s reasonable to assume Albert Pujols will lift his .371 slugging percentage at some point before it’s too late. And with No. 1 starter Garrett Richards back in the rotation, there is still reason to believe the Angels are contenders in 2015, a season after winning a major league-best 98 games.
".@JeffFletcherOCR says the A's pitching always seems to be good, but the Angels and the Mariners are the two main contenders for the AL West
— 95.7 The GAME (@957thegame) April 24, 2015"
Pretender: Chicago White Sox
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The White Sox might have had the best offseason of any American League team, adding to their lineup, rotation and bullpen. Those additions were supposed to make them a legitimate contender.
So far, they have not.
The offense ranks near the bottom in OBP, slugging and OPS as players like Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, Alexei Ramirez and Adam Eaton have all struggled through the first three weeks.
On the pitching end, all starters not named Chris Sale have had their struggles. Even Jeff Samardzija stumbled out of the gate before delivering two quality starts in his last two outings. The rotation as a group has a 4.56 ERA, but the bullpen (2.84 ERA) has picked them up.
The White Sox can still turn this around as long as Sale and Samardzija can carry the rotation and the hitters can turn it around. As of now, though, they have a minus-9 run differential and sit a game under .500, making them a pretender.
Contender: San Diego Padres
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The offseason makeover in San Diego might have been the most drastic in MLB. And it is paying off greatly through the first three weeks.
The Padres entered Monday 11-9—not exactly setting the league on fire. But their offense, led by Yonder Alonso, Matt Kemp, Derek Norris and Justin Upton, ranks in the top three in the league in home runs (21), average (.268), slugging (.433) and OPS (.752).
The pitching has the fourth-lowest ERA (3.39) in the league, and the rotation’s 3.40 mark is fifth lowest. That adds up to a plus-18 run differential, good for best in the division.
The Padres’ roster transformation was stunning, right up until Opening Day when they acquired closer Craig Kimbrel. And it has made them a real contender in the NL.
Contender: Pittsburgh Pirates
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The Pirates were a playoff team last year, and they did very little to improve for this season beyond expecting more progression, or at least a maintained level of production, throughout their lineup. As for the pitching, the hope was that Gerrit Cole would develop into a No. 1 and the rest of the rotation could prop him up enough to make the rotation one of the best in the league.
So far, so good on the pitching front. Cole has a 2.19 ERA though four starts, and the group as a whole is at 2.91, the second-lowest mark in the league. In their last 13 games, the rotation has a 1.88 ERA, and it held the Arizona Diamondbacks to two runs in a three-game sweep last weekend.
That kind of pitching is good enough to carry a team through a season and into October. The Pirates’ starters will eventually experience a level of correction, but if they can remain among the league’s best, this turns into a club that can not only make it to the postseason but make an October run once it arrives.
Pretender: Atlanta Braves
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When the Braves decided to go into rebuild mode over the offseason, they completely went for it. They traded three of their four best offensive players in Justin Upton, Evan Gattis and Jason Heyward. Then, a day before their Opening Day, they got rid of the best reliever in the game, Craig Kimbrel.
It was fair to say hardly anyone expected the Braves to contend this season. Then they got off to a 5-0 start and hope started to build.
It was premature, though. The Braves have lost five of their last six games and sit at 9-9 entering Monday. They are 4.5 games behind the New York Mets, their pitching is mediocre, and the lineup is so-so.
We have already started to see the significant cracks with this team, and the only reason we are asking if they are real or not is because of a hot first week. Needless to say, the Braves are pretending, and the facade is cracking.
Pretender: Colorado Rockies
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It seems like there is a point in every season when we ask if the Rockies are for real or some sort of illusion. And in recent years, it has always come out being an illusion, sometimes because of injuries and mostly because of a lack of pitching.
This year, the question is being asked again after the Rockies won seven of their first nine games. Since then, though, they have lost six of nine and the pitching staff has a 5.74 ERA over that stretch. The rotation ERA is 4.39, the second-worst in the NL.
While the offense is among the best in the league, the pitching has been so bad that the team’s run differential is minus-three. Only the Boston Red Sox, another club with an awful rotation, have a worse differential among teams with a winning record.
And like the Red Sox, until the Rockies find a way to improve their starting pitching, they are a pretender.
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