Re-Drafting the 2012 NFL Draft
NFL draft-mania is in full force this week as the 2015 class prepares to enter the league. Instead of looking forward, it’s time to jump back to 2012 and redo what happened three years ago. What could or should have been done differently?
Now that we’ve seen this class for three entire seasons, it’s easier to see which players have achieved status in the NFL and which are working their way there. We shouldn’t completely write off players who haven’t yet found success, but some guys would certainly drop if this class could be re-drafted.
In this slideshow, we'll re-examine the 2012 draft. Knowing what we know in 2015, some teams would certainly change their selections. Others would likely stick with what worked the first go-around.
Before we dig in, let’s establish a couple of rules.
First, we are only tackling the first round. Secondly, we're using the original draft order—before any "day of" trades.
So Washington still has the second pick, but all the teams that made a trade on the first day of the draft are back in their original spots. We will not be replicating or making up our own trades at all.
What happened in subsequent draft classes won’t be considered, as these franchise-altering moves could have changed those picks.
1. Indianapolis Colts: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
1 of 32
Actual Pick: Same
In this re-draft, nothing changes with the No. 1 overall pick.
Often hailed as the safest quarterback prospect since John Elway, Andrew Luck has been terrific thus far. Coming off another division title and a deep playoff run, the Indianapolis Colts continue to thrive with Luck at the helm.
2. Washington Redskins: Russell Wilson, QB, Wisconsin
2 of 32
Actual Pick: Robert Griffin III
Despite the early returns of drafting Robert Griffin III, the Washington Redskins would have been much better off to select Wisconsin quarterback Russell Wilson. Griffin’s been decimated by injuries since his rookie season, and there’s no guarantee he will return to full effectiveness in 2015.
On the flip side, Wilson is a Super Bowl champion with a bright future. His accuracy, poise, leadership and clutchness are all qualities that a franchise quarterback would possess. There’s little doubt the Redskins would like this one back.
3. Minnesota Vikings: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M
3 of 32
Actual Pick: Matt Kalil (after trading back with Cleveland)
The Minnesota Vikings thought they had found a franchise left tackle in Matt Kalil, but he’s been a disaster at left tackle the two seasons after his Pro Bowl rookie season. His 2015 season could be his last in Minnesota if things don’t turn around quickly.
In this re-draft, the best decision would be Texas A&M’s Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill entered the NFL very inexperienced, but he’s improved massively since his rookie season. According to Cindy Jones-Hulfachor and Omar Kelly of the Sun Sentinel, he has the ninth-most passing yards thrown in his first three seasons, despite having little help from his receivers and offensive line.
Tannehill’s ceiling is yet to be realized, but he is a foundational piece at quarterback if he can continue improving. Minnesota would have been wise to invest in his upside.
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4. Cleveland Browns: Fletcher Cox, DE, Mississippi State
4 of 32
Actual Pick: Trent Richardson (after trading up with Minnesota)
One of the highest-valued positions in the NFL is an elite pass-rusher. With the fourth overall pick in 2012, the Cleveland Browns would be getting just that in Fletcher Cox. Cox created 39 quarterback hurries in 2014 alone, which was good for second most in the NFL of all 3-4 defensive ends, per Pro Football Focus.
Cox also earned the third-best run-stuffing grade. He is one of the premier players at his position and would have been a much better pick than Trent Richardson.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College
5 of 32
Actual Pick: Mark Barron (after trading back with Jacksonville)
This scenario would have allowed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to re-draft linebacker Lavonte David, but instead, the pick is Boston College’s Luke Kuechly. Kuechly is one of the best linebackers in the NFL, earning Defensive Player of the Year in 2013.
Original first-round pick Mark Barron has been a disappointment thus far. The safety just hasn’t been the impact player that a top-10 safety must become.
6. St. Louis Rams: Lavonte David, LB, Nebraska
6 of 32
Actual Pick: Michael Brockers (after trading back with Dallas)
As St. Louis’ original first-round pick, Michael Brockers hasn’t been a bust, but he also hasn’t lived up to this lofty pick. Thus, the Rams upgrade a massive sore spot for their defense—linebacker.
In Lavonte David, the Rams would have an impact weak-side linebacker in a 4-3 front. David is incredibly quick, efficient and smooth. His 319 career tackles and 17 passes defensed would be a major boost to the Rams.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Alshon Jeffrey, WR, South Carolina
7 of 32
Actual Pick: Justin Blackmon (after trading up with Tampa Bay)
It’s unfortunate how poorly Justin Blackmon’s tenure has been thus far. He’s incredibly talented, but his off-field issues have kept him away from the field too often. Thus, the Jacksonville Jaguars should have taken the best receiver in the class, Alshon Jeffrey.
Jeffrey has the size, body control and hands that every quarterback would love. He’s an enormous building block for offenses because he doesn’t have to win with shear athleticism to be effective. He just makes big plays happen.
8. Miami Dolphins: Bobby Wagner, LB, Utah State
8 of 32
Actual Pick: Ryan Tannehill
Miami hit a home run with its original first-round pick. Since Ryan Tannehill went higher in this re-draft, the Dolphins’ best option on the board is Utah State linebacker Bobby Wagner. Wagner has been a critical piece for a dangerous Seattle Seahawks defense the last three years.
The Dolphins haven’t had an elite inside linebacker since Zach Thomas retired. Wagner could have filled that void with his impressive combination of instincts and athleticism.
9. Carolina Panthers: Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina
9 of 32
Actual Pick: Luke Kuechly
There was no chance that Luke Kuechly, the Carolina Panthers’ original pick, would make it this far in our re-draft. He’s simply too good to be the ninth-best player in this class. But the Panthers still land a great player in Stephon Gilmore.
When Gilmore is healthy, he is a great cornerback. His physicality has been fine-tuned to the point that Gilmore consistently provides solid coverage. He would have been a major addition to the defense if Kuechly was off the board.
10. Buffalo Bills: Dontari Poe, NT, Memphis
10 of 32
Actual Pick: Stephon Gilmore
Figuring out the value of true nose tackles is somewhat difficult. We rarely see elite nose tackle prospects, so when they’re around, they go high. Dontari Poe had bad tape but amazing measureables for a man standing 6’3”, 346 pounds.
Three years later, and it is clear Poe has been a hit. He regressed a bit in 2014 but had a dominant 2013 season. The Buffalo Bills did well with their original pick, but Poe would have been a good consolation prize.
11. Kansas City Chiefs: Chandler Jones, DE, Syracuse
11 of 32
Actual Pick: Dontari Poe
Dontari Poe is off the board already, so the Kansas City Chiefs add Syracuse’s Chandler Jones in this scenario. Jones has been a very good defensive end for the New England Patriots, and this is a big jump for him.
Originally taken 26th overall, Jones’ versatility and pass-rush talent was underrated. He would have been an instant upgrade for the Chiefs defensive line. He is much more competent as a pass-rusher than former Chiefs end Tyson Jackson.
12. Seattle Seahawks: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor
12 of 32
Actual Pick: Bruce Irvin (after trading back with Philadelphia)
Since current Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson went No. 2 overall, the re-draft bears a swap for Seattle. Griffin is simply too talented to fall out of the first round, and if he returns to form in 2015, will be in the discussion as one of the top 10 quarterbacks in the league again.
Seattle would have been a great situation for Griffin. The Seahawks' strong running game, defense and coaching staff would have led to less pressure on his legs and mind. What could have been, we will never know.
13. Arizona Cardinals: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
13 of 32
Actual Pick: Same
The Arizona Cardinals got this one right the first time. Notre Dame receiver Michael Floyd hasn’t been a bona fide star so far, but he’s been very good with less-than-stellar quarterback play.
His 2,444 yards in three years is solid considering all of the injuries to the Cardinals quarterbacks.
14. Dallas Cowboys: Mike Daniels, DE, Iowa
14 of 32
Actual Pick: Morris Claiborne
The biggest riser in the re-draft to this point is Iowa defensive end Mike Daniels. Daniels was originally the Green Bay Packers’ fourth-round selection, but the Dallas Cowboys should have taken him at No. 14.
Daniels is an excellent pass-rusher. He’s able to play in either a 3-4 or 4-3 front and cause havoc. His 26 quarterback pressures in 2014 in a 3-4 front certainly makes him worthy of this pick.
15. Philadelphia Eagles: Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame
15 of 32
Actual Pick: Fletcher Cox
Philadelphia did well to select Fletcher Cox the first time, and the club has reaped the rewards of that decision since. But in this do-over, the Eagles would have never been close to him. Instead, they land a solid safety.
Harrison Smith has been an above-average starter for the Minnesota Vikings. He’s been banged up, which has limited his production, but the Eagles have needed a hard hitter in their secondary. Smith is certainly that and more.
16. New York Jets: Bruce Irvin, OLB, West Virginia
16 of 32
Actual Pick: Quinton Coples
The New York Jets wanted a pure pass-rusher with the 16th overall pick in 2012, but Quinton Coples has been very average with his production thus far. With just 16.5 sacks in three years of full-time play, he’s not had the impact they were hoping for. But Bruce Irvin, now a Seattle Seahawks rusher, is that guy.
Irvin has been a one-trick player thus far. He’s freaky athletic, allowing him to create pressure from all over. Like Coples, Irvin has 16.5 sacks. Coples has done that in 2,058 snaps, while Irvin has accomplished this in just 1,673 snaps, per PFF. Irvin has been better with less of a sample size.
17. Cincinnati Bengals: T.Y. Hilton, WR, Florida International
17 of 32
Actual Pick: Dre Kirkpatrick
When the Cincinnati Bengals selected cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick, they expected a top-end starter by now. Kirkpatrick has yet to really have an impact for the Bengals, though, and anyone else would be an upgrade.
To complement receiver A.J. Green, this pick should have been T.Y. Hilton. Hilton is electric and somehow lasted until the third round of the 2012 NFL draft. The Pro Bowler has definitely surpassed his draft status.
18. San Diego Chargers: Cordy Glenn, OT, Georgia
18 of 32
Actual Pick: Melvin Ingram
This is another pick in the middle of the first round that hasn’t been a disaster, but it wasn’t the right pick. The San Diego Chargers drafted a decent player in outside linebacker Melvin Ingram, but not a dynamic one. Adding a very good left tackle would have been better.
Glenn is a big, powerful blocker. He’s not the most nimble cat on the field, but he would fit the Chargers’ heavy front line of maulers.
19. Chicago Bears: Kelechi Osemele, OG, Iowa State
19 of 32
Actual Pick: Shea McClellin
The Chicago Bears would love this pick back. Pass-rusher Shea McClellin hasn’t been effective at any point in his career. He’s on his last leg in Chicago in 2015.
Instead, the Bears could have added one of the NFL’s best guards, Kelechi Osemele. Osemele is a devastating run-blocker, powering through defenders as if they weren’t there. He’s a huge reason why the Baltimore Ravens had a resurgent running game in 2014.
20. Tennessee Titans: Tashaun Gipson, S, Wyoming
20 of 32
Actual Pick: Kendall Wright
This pick changes not because receiver Kendall Wright is a disappointing player but merely because of how good Tashaun Gipson was in 2014. The Cleveland Browns safety came on quietly in 2013 as a good performer but really took off in 2014 with six interceptions before he tore his ACL.
Safeties are worth significant assets when they’re elite. Gipson is close to that range, even when considering the injury.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: David DeCastro, G, Stanford
21 of 32
Actual Pick: Kevin Zeitler (after trading back with New England)
When the Cincinnati Bengals selected guard Kevin Zeitler, they ended up with a decent starter. He fits their system nicely and has scored some extra picks. Stanford guard David DeCastro should have been the pick, though.
DeCastro had the early knee injury, but 2014 was a very good campaign for him and the Pittsburgh Steelers. His power, agility and consistency would have been an upgrade over Zeitler.
22. Cleveland Browns: Mychal Kendricks, LB, Cal
22 of 32
Actual Pick: Brandon Weeden
There is no doubt the Cleveland Browns swung and missed badly with both of their first-round picks. For the 21st overall selection, the Browns should have selected California linebacker Mychal Kendricks.
Kendricks would have brought a solid presence to the middle of this defense. Cleveland has long struggled against the run, but Kendricks is capable of helping most units in the league.
23. Detroit Lions: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa
23 of 32
Actual Pick: Same
This is one fit that shouldn’t be fixed. Detroit found a versatile and effective tackle late in the first round, and that’s good value. Riley Reiff could move inside to guard if he’s asked to, which is a nice bonus.
It can be argued whether Reiff should go higher than No. 22, but linemen like Reiff aren’t the perennial Pro Bowl types. He does his job well but is not a great, standout player.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers: Casey Hayward, CB, Vanderbilt
24 of 32
Actual Pick: David DeCastro
As the Pittsburgh Steelers have to re-draft, they don’t have the luxury of getting DeCastro back. Instead, they could have selected a solid player at a premier position.
Vanderbilt’s Casey Hayward would have looked good in the black and yellow. His length and speed are critical for his success and would have fit in well with the Steelers secondary.
25. Denver Broncos: Olivier Vernon, DE, Miami
25 of 32
Actual Pick: None (moved back in trade with New England, then out of the first round in trade with Tampa Bay)
There’s no precedent here, so it’s simply the best player available for the Denver Broncos. Inserting Miami edge-rusher Olivier Vernon into the Broncos defense would have added an effective nickel-rusher with developmental upside.
Vernon has been very productive for the Miami Dolphins, but he hasn’t quite taken the next step as a creator for his teammates. Fortunately in this scenario, the Broncos have Von Miller, who creates similarly to Miami’s Cameron Wake. This fit would have worked out nicely.
26. Houston Texans: Will Hill, S, Florida
26 of 32
Actual Pick: Whitney Mercilus
The Houston Texans have been searching for a great pass-rusher and safety for the last few years. Part of that reason is because they whiffed on Illinois edge-rusher Whitney Mercilus. He’s been given every chance to star but hasn’t lived up to the draft status yet.
Florida safety Will Hill has had off-field issues, but he is a premier playmaker when he’s on it. The long-term outlook for Hill is limitless if he’s focused on maximizing his playing abilities.
27. New England Patriots: Dont’a Hightower, LB, Alabama
27 of 32
Actual Pick: Chandler Jones
The 2012 class was strong for the New England Patriots. Chandler Jones was a great addition this late, but even Dont’a Hightower would have been a good value.
Hightower stepped up in a huge way in 2014 following the Jerrod Mayo injury. His growth as a defender into a more complete player helped him jump higher into the first round.
28. Green Bay Packers: Kelvin Beachum, OT, SMU
28 of 32
Actual Pick: Nick Perry
The biggest breakout performer from the 2012 class this past season may have been tackle Kelvin Beachum. Beachum was a revelation for the Pittsburgh Steelers, earning the fifth-highest offensive tackle grade for any tackle from PFF.
His growth in the positive direction is why Matt Kalil didn’t get the nod here. Beachum has shown improvement every season thus far.
29. Baltimore Ravens: Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor
29 of 32
Actual Pick: None (traded out of the first round with Minnesota)
Former Baylor wide receiver Kendall Wright hasn’t benefited from good quarterback play in the NFL, but he is a solid starter. He’s a crafty playmaker whose usage would be maximized by the Baltimore Ravens.
His ability to step into the slot and create underneath is something every offense needs.
30. San Francisco 49ers: Brandon Boykin, CB, Georgia
30 of 32
Actual Pick: A.J. Jenkins
The San Francisco 49ers tried to hit big when they rolled the dice on A.J. Jenkins, but it came up snake eyes. Jenkins was a colossal miss, so any decent player would have been an improvement.
Better yet, the 49ers could have selected slot specialist Brandon Boykin. Boykin is undersized, but he's a talented slot cornerback. His ball skills and quick feet have made him a notable nickel defender.
31. New England Patriots: Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall
31 of 32
Actual Pick: Dont'a Hightower (traded up with Denver)
Although New England missed on Chandler Jones earlier, Vinny Curry would have been a pretty decent alternative. Curry broke out in Philadelphia’s new defensive front in 2014, and the Patriots use a similar 3-4 look often.
Curry was close to being written off as a bust last offseason, but smart coaches put their players in positions to succeed. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick would have certainly realized this as well.
32. New York Giants: Alfred Morris, RB, Florida Atlantic
32 of 32
Actual Pick: David Wilson
The New York Giants originally had the right position but missed badly on the player. Unfortunately due to injuries, David Wilson was a major disappointment for the Giants. Especially when compared to current Redskins back Alfred Morris.
Morris has produced three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and totaled 28 touchdowns. He’s one of many backs taken late in the draft who have been more effective than higher-ranked tailbacks coming out of college.
All stats used are from Pro-Football-Reference.com.
Ian Wharton is an NFL Draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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