Kentucky Derby 2015: 10 Bold Predictions for the Run for the Roses
At the Kentucky Derby, everything is larger than life. The hats are supersized, the crowds are epic and both the money and the mint juleps are flowing liberally. Knowing that, it only makes sense that the predictions be just as bold and grand as the race itself.
Will American Pharoah live up to the hype and etch his misspelled name into the history books? Can the unknown contender from the deserts of Dubai sweep in and steal the show? Is “Coach” D. Wayne Lukas primed to steal the show with the forgotten Mr. Z?
Read on for 10 bold predictions for this year’s edition of the Kentucky Derby.
The Road to the Derby Goes Through Dubai
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Though Mubtaahij is a mouthful of a name to pronounce, you can bet that both Travis Stone, the voice of Churchill Downs, and Larry Collmus, who calls the races for the NBC telecast, are brushing up on the pronunciation. After an impressive victory in the UAE Derby, this colt has the potential to make some serious noise in the Kentucky Derby.
Since the UAE Derby was created in 2000, six winners of the race have gone on to attempt to make history in the Kentucky Derby. All of them have been epic failures. Mubtaahij will try to change that, and with his explosive closing kick, he could do just that.
One of the Big Three Won’t Hit the Board
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Thoroughbred racing has been blessed with an embarrassment of riches in the sophomore crop this year, and the field for the 141st Kentucky Derby is looking like one of the most stacked in recent memory.
The three horses that are generating all of the buzz are the juvenile champion American Pharoah, the physically imposing Dortmund and the royally bred Carpe Diem.
A lot can happen in the Kentucky Derby, and while those three look like the major standouts, it seems likely that at least one of them will struggle to hit the board. All it takes is a bad trip, a bad ride or just a bad day for a horse to go from being on the very top to the bottom.
An Unknown Will Jump into the Spotlight
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Everyone knows the perennial big names in the Kentucky Derby—Bob Baffert, Todd Pletcher, D. Wayne Lukas. This year, while the big guns are loaded up with talent as expected, there are some newcomers to the Kentucky Derby scene who have a chance to make a major impact.
Trainer Ron Moquett will be making his first Kentucky Derby appearance with Far Right. Though the colt got dusted by American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby, he was the best of the rest of contenders that day.
Though Moquett has won over 500 races, none have been on the grand scale that is the Run for the Roses, every trainer’s dream. Moquett, in an interview with The Courier-Journal, was optimistic about his colt's chances.
"There's a reason why the favorites don't win the Derby," Moquett said. "They have sometimes, but more often than not, it's somebody afterward going, 'Man, I thought that horse could.'"
Far Right will need to run the race of his life, but he could get a piece of the action.
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D. Wayne Lukas Has an Ace Up His Sleeve
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After Oxbow won the Preakness Stakes in 2013, what lesson did we learn? Never count out “Coach” D. Wayne Lukas. The living legend has saddled the winner of 14 individual Triple Crown races and has won the Kentucky Derby four times. Though his lone contender in 2015, Mr. Z, has a longshot chance at best, Lukas can never be totally overlooked on a big day.
Mr. Z is owned by Zayat Stables, who will also send out the likely favorite (American Pharoah), as well as the hard-knocking El Kabeir. Mr. Z, with only a maiden win to his credit, is still eligible for conditional company and has given no indication he can compete at racing’s highest level.
Even with that being said, stranger things have happened. And with Lukas, nothing should come as a total surprise at this point.
International Star Is the Forgotten Horse
5 of 10While American Pharoah, Dortmund and Carpe Diem are regarded as the top contenders, International Star has flown quietly under the radar. As a three-year-old, he has done everything right and is undefeated in three starts this year.
As the preps progressed, so did he. International Star showed his tenacity in the Louisiana Derby with a game victory.
His sire, Fusaichi Pegasus, was one of the most-hyped horses in history heading into the 2000 Kentucky Derby. He delivered on the buzz with an emphatic victory and then went on to spectacular failure as a stallion. International Star will give his father one more chance to get into the history books as a Kentucky Derby winner to sire a Kentucky Derby winner.
Bob Baffert Could Finish 1-2
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Bob Baffert is one of the most familiar faces at the Kentucky Derby. The Hall of Fame trainer has saddled horses to win nine separate Triple Crown races and has won the Kentucky Derby three times. In 2012, he was second in the Derby with the brilliantly fast Bodemeister in what was a disappointing defeat.
This year, Baffert will send out two of the top contenders: American Pharoah and Dortmund. American Pharoah may have missed the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year with a minor setback, but he has come back to be even more dominant as a sophomore. Dortmund is undefeated and a physically imposing chestnut presence that brings back memories of another big, red Baffert star—Point Given.
With American Pharoah's untapped potential and Dortmund's outright refusal to lose, those two could give Baffert the ultimate dilemma at the wire. Who is he really rooting for to win?
Pletcher Will Reverse His Derby Luck
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While Todd Pletcher is one of the most acclaimed trainers in the game, the Kentucky Derby has been one race that has been, for the most part, elusive. He has saddled 40 starters in the Kentucky Derby and has one win (Super Saver in 2010). He has finished on the board with five other horses.
Some of his most promising horses in years past—Eskendereya, Uncle Mo, Shanghai Bobby, Constitution—have been forced to sit out the Run for the Roses due to injuries or ailments. This year, Pletcher has his biggest gun, Carpe Diem, loaded and ready with several other promising contenders, including Materiality and Itsaknockout.
As he told the Lexington Herald-Leader, he has a string with the qualifications to compete on horse racing's biggest stage.
"We've got some horses with some pretty strong resumes," Pletcher said. "I don't know that we've ever gotten here with the undefeated Florida Derby winner, the Blue Grass and Breeders' Futurity winner."
The Superfecta Payout Could Be Historically Low
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With a field of 20 contenders, wagering on the Kentucky Derby can be both a daunting and lucrative task. While picking the winner of the Run for the Roses is hard enough, picking the top four finishers in a superfecta wager can seem nearly impossible.
For those who have pulled off this feat, the payouts have been remarkable in recent years. According to SB Nation, the average payout for a $2 superfecta wager since 2000 has been over $84,000.
While wacky things can and do happen in the Kentucky Derby, the top contenders are so strong this year that it would be an epic shock if at least two of them were not in the top four. With American Pharoah, Dortmund and Carpe Diem likely to lead the pack on the tote board, there is a legitimate possibility that will translate to the race track as well, which could lead to minuscule payouts.
In 2000, Fusaichi Pegasus delivered on his overwhelming favoritism and won the Run for the Roses. Aptitude, Impeachment and More Than Ready rounded out the superfecta, which returned only $3,270.80.
Secretariat's Record Time of 1:59.40 Will Be Threatened
9 of 10In order for a horse to run the 1 ¼-mile distance of the Derby in under 2:00.00, the stars need to align for a horse that is the total package. That horse needs to be fast, full of stamina and also needs an ideal pace scenario in the race.
American Pharaoh, Dortmund and Carpe Diem are three of the most complete horses to enter the starting gate on the first Saturday in May in recent years. All three of these colts possess the rare combination of speed, stamina and running style that makes crossing the wire in under two minutes a possibility.
With no obvious sprinters in the field—as is sometimes the case—it is likely that these three will be on or near the lead throughout and controlling the pace.
With the sheer talent and speed in the field, there is a chance that Secretariat's record time of 1:59.40 could be in jeopardy.
The Triple Crown Will NOT Be on the Line on June 6
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After California Chrome's disappointing defeat in the Belmont Stakes last year, horse racing fans were left wanting for a Triple Crown for the 36th consecutive year. They may have to wait another year.
While this crop of three-year-old males seems to be one of the most talented and consistent in recent memory, the task of winning the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes has become even more daunting than usual. If even two of the top three contenders are as good as they appear to be, there could be a rivalry of Easy Goer and Sunday Silence proportions.
There could be something special in the Kentucky Derby this year, but the more years that pass since Affirmed took the Triple Crown in 1978, the less likely one seems.
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