2015 NFL Draft: Latest Buzz and Predictions for the Top-10 Selections
The top 10 picks in the draft have an amazing impact on how the rest of the weekend falls. You'll hear draft writers explain all the time how if one surprise pick pops up, an entire mock can be thrown out the window. If someone somehow correctly picks five of the 32 selections of Day 1, he or she can consider it a success on a relative scale.
An interesting exercise heading into draft weekend isn't just to look at one scenario, but multiple ones for each pick. From there, you can internally debate which way the team will land. For the most part, the only info you're getting from a team can be shown with their wallets. There are reports of players visiting teams daily but late cuts or signings are better indicators to how a team will go on draft day.
When taking into account recent rumors, roster movement and roster construction, the draft becomes easier to mock. In an attempt to pin down the top-10 selections of the draft, which includes two big trades, I went through that process.
First Overall
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I think I speak for everyone in the draft community when I say that if Jameis Winston doesn't come off the board with the first overall pick in this class, we would be absolutely shocked. Since the combine, there has been a consensus that Winston is going with the top selection, and you'll be hard-pressed to find a mock draft that says otherwise.
The only aspect of this selection that gives pause is that he's not signed yet. Within a week of the draft, it's not clear why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers wouldn't have the former Florida State quarterback on their books yet. Maybe they're waiting to see if a wild trade offer comes across their table, but with Philip Rivers of San Diego potentially on the trade block, there's a possibility a trade for the veteran is in play.
Still, if my life depended on correctly projecting who the team will take, I would have full confidence that Tampa Bay will be turning in a card with Winston's name on it. Bucs fans, it's safe to start buying the jerseys for Thursday's draft parties.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Jameis Winston, QB, Florida
Second Overall
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The second overall pick is an interesting one, because there's really three ways that this one could go, and all of them would greatly impact the landscape for the rest of the night. The first, and most publicized, option is that the Tennessee Titans would trade the selection for Philip Rivers, the San Diego Chargers' starting quarterback, allowing the Chargers to come up for Marcus Mariota, the quarterback from Oregon.
According to Will Brinson of CBS Sports, LaDainian Tomlinson, Rivers' former teammate in San Diego, thinks he's done playing in southern California. It's not too often that you hear rumors surrounding a quarterback, and they just vanish. For the most part, if there's smoke, there's fire when regarding quarterback trade rumors.
If the Titans do keep the pick, though, they'll most likely either target Leonard Williams, the 5-technique defensive end from USC, or Mariota.
Ken Whisenhunt, the Titans' head coach, is 3-25 in his last 28 games. To me, he needs to make a move for his job security. The win-share impact of a 20-year-old 3-4 defensive lineman can't be high, and waiting for Mariota to develop into a starter who can win you more than half of your games might take more time than the ownership will be willing to give Whisenhunt.
As an offensive coordinator for the Chargers in 2013, Whisenhunt revived Rivers' career. I think he'll ask Rivers to return the favor by trading the second pick in the draft for the passer.
Prediction: San Diego Chargers trade Phillip Rivers to the Tennessee Titans for the second overall pick (Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon)
Third Overall
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There are a lot of moving parts that go into this decision, but I believe the Jacksonville Jaguars will trade the third overall selection to the Atlanta Falcons. Everyone wants to trade back to collect assets, but it's hard to find a dancing partner.
The Atlanta front office has been an aggressive one. After trading massive value to flip up the draft to pick Julio Jones in 2011, Peter King of MMQB also reported that the squad almost traded up to third overall for offensive tackle Jake Matthews, who was selected by them at sixth overall, just last season. Atlanta seems to put a premium on "their guys," and they're not afraid to trade to snag them.
The Jaguars had motive not to move down the board, though: they couldn't risk losing out on their franchise quarterback. With the most important position in the sport addressed, the Jaguars could be more lenient on sliding back this draft.
Another factor is the pass-rushing needs of these two teams. The Falcons have their front-seven mostly addressed other than the "LEO" position in their 4-3 defense. On paper, Nebraska's Randy Gregory and Clemson's Vic Beasley aren't LEOs, but rather OTTOs, a linebacker and nickel defensive end position that Bruce Irvin plays in Seattle.
The Falcons have no use for an OTTO, as they just signed Brooks Reed to a five-year contract but a team like Jacksonville could.
The issue is this: There's a good shot that the elite LEOs, the weak-side pass-rushers, are off the board by the time Atlanta is slated to take its pick, eighth overall, and it's probably too early in the eyes of NFL front offices to take an OTTO at third overall for the Jaguars.
When you include that the consensus top LEO in the class, Dante Fowler of Florida, was once coached by Dan Quinn, the Falcons head coach, the link gets even stronger. The aggressive staff in Atlanta moves up for a LEO they have close ties to while the Jaguars slide back for an undersized pass-rusher, because the Falcons really don't have another choice but to move up, based on how the board should shake out.
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars trade the third overall pick (Dante Fowler, EDGE, Florida) to the Atlanta Falcons for the eighth overall pick and the 42nd overall pick
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.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
Fourth Overall
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A lot of people are linking a wide receiver to the Oakland Raiders, but it's hard to see the value in taking one at fourth overall. This wide receiver class is stacked, but not at the top. While some may like Kevin White of West Virginia or Amari Cooper of Alabama, they wouldn't be ranked in the top-three receivers of the last draft class.
Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr. and Sammy Watkins were all better prospects than those two. Taking who would have been the fourth-best receiver in the 2014 draft class at fourth overall in 2015 just doesn't look good, especially if you're trying to build your team around elite talent, as the Raiders seemingly are. They want key pieces like Derek Carr and Khalil Mack early on so they can place other pieces around them, not just safe prospects.
To me, this pick comes down to either Dante Fowler of Florida and Leonard Williams of USC. Fowler would line up opposite of Justin Tuck early on, taking over his role when he moves on from the team. With him off the board, though, the selection has to be Williams, the USC defensive lineman.
Williams played mostly 3-4 defensive end at USC, but he has some experience at 3-technique, or undertackle, from his freshman year with the Trojans. In Oakland, where they just cut Antonio Smith at the position, he'll fit in that role as a starter from Day 1. The pick would give the team three high draft selections on defense, one on each level. Williams is the key piece on the defensive line, while Mack is that in the linebacker unit and D.J. Hayden hopes to be in the secondary.
Prediction: Oakland Raiders select Leonard Williams, DL, USC
Fifth Overall
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As draft writers, we don't take into the account specific situations teams are going through enough. Too often, we fall in love with our own rankings, trying to fit what our eyes have seen in the scope of what NFL teams might actually do. When looking at the Redskins, they're a great example of a team which just needs to get on base.
After trading away their franchise for Robert Griffin III, a quarterback who has been hindered by injury, they've been depleted of young stars, who they could have brought in with those traded away picks. With so many holes on the roster, the best way for the team to build is just taking a sure thing, which still provides a large upgrade on the roster.
The two "safe" names that come to mind are Amari Cooper of Alabama and Brandon Scherff of Iowa. Cooper is a solid receiver, in the mold of a Roddy White, and he is young as only a true junior declaration. Scherff is a little on the short side to compete at tackle at the NFL level, but he'll do amazingly in a booth, especially in a zone-blocking system or a power system as a pulling left guard.
It's a near toss up between the picks on paper. What moves the needle for me is positional value. Sure, there are a lot of great receivers in the class, but if the alternative position is guard, a non-premier position which value can usually be found in the middle rounds, you add a weapon to the offense for Griffin's last shot at redemption.
Prediction: Washington Redskins select Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
Sixth Overall
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As Matt Miller of Bleacher Report noted recently, Alvin "Bud" Dupree of Kentucky is the type of player Todd Bowles seems to like at 3-4 outside linebacker. Dupree and Dante Fowler are the bigger pass-rushers at the top of the draft, and with Fowler gone, Dupree should be their top edge defender on paper. When looking at the depth chart for the New York Jets, they're one dominant pass-rusher away from being a top-five defense in the league.
Going from the sixth-worst record in the sport to having a strong identity would be huge for a new coaching staff and front office. The other position which some might think is in consideration is wide receiver, but to me, that doesn't pass the sniff test. Kevin White of West Virginia is still on the board, and he should go around this range, but the Jets already have too many assets at the position to move one into a slot role.
Last season, New York brought in Eric Decker as a free agent on a five-year contract. This offseason, they traded for five-time Pro Bowl receiver Brandon Marshall. Is the team willing to just cut ties with positive value on Decker's contract after one season? Despite a new staff coming in, that's a radical move which I just can't see going through.
Prediction: Alvin "Bud" Dupree, EDGE, Kentucky
Seventh Overall
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The Chicago Bears are transitioning from a 4-3 defense to a true 3-4 defense in one offseason. It's going to be hard on the team, but they've added pieces like Pernell McPhee and Ray McDonald, front-seven defenders from Baltimore and San Francisco, respectively. The issue is that they already were one of the low-level units on the defensive side of the ball last season, and they lost a star in Stephen Paea.
When looking at 3-4 athletes, though, there aren't many who would look to be "values" with the seventh pick. Dante Fowler, Leonard Williams and Alvin "Bud" Dupree are already off the board. I don't think the NFL will feel as though the tweeners on the edge, Randy Gregory of Nebraska, Vic Beasley of Clemson and Shane Ray of Missouri, are going to make the cut at seven.
Arik Armstead of Oregon is probably the top 3-4 defensive lineman left in this scenario, but even that's a stretch.
Bucky Brooks of NFL Network wrote that Amari Cooper of Alabama, who I believe will be taken fifth overall by the Redskins, was a good fit in Chicago:
"New coach John Fox's recent experience with Peyton Manning and an explosive receiving corps in Denver could prompt him to try surrounding Bears quarterback Jay Cutler with the weapons that could help him rediscover his Pro Bowl form. Cooper is a silky-smooth playmaker with a refined game that makes him ideally suited for a WR1 role opposite big-bodied pass-catchers Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett. With Jeffery and Bennett capable of clearing zones on vertical routes, Cooper could work the underneath areas of coverage on an assortment of short and intermediate routes designed to let him use his impeccable timing and awareness to settle into open windows. The Bears have featured a dynamic passing game over the past few years; adding Cooper would give them a 1-2 punch at wide receiver to rival any combination in the league.
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The Bears do need to pair a receiver with Alshon Jeffery, but they're more inclined to steal the higher-upside Kevin White of West Virginia. Matching Jeffery with another long target and Eddie Royal in the slot makes that Chicago offense potent. They can't run away from that Jay Cutler contract forever, but this should would make the best of what they have.
White is something between Braylon Edwards and Larry Fitzgerald. He's well-aged for a top prospect at a soon-to-be 23 years old, and he's only had one year of big production, but he's the boom or bust receiver in the class. If an offense involving Culter is going to make a deep playoff run, he's going to need another elite pass-catcher.
Prediction: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
Eighth Overall
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As explained in the third slide, there's motive for a trade between the Atlanta Falcons and the Jacksonville Jaguars. On the Falcons' side, they're aggressive and need a pass-rusher, to which only Bud "Alvin" Dupree and Dante Fowler fit, who should be off the board by the time they come on the clock.
Earning a second-round pick along the way, the Jaguars can still find a pass-rusher for their defense, which needs a top pressure player, as their team is built to bring on a "tweener." Vic Beasley of Clemson, one of the best college football players over the past two years, can play an OTTO linebacker role for the squad in base and drop down as a nickel defensive end in passing situations.
Beasley is extremely good at getting after the quarterback, but he's small and won't hold up in the ground game at the next level. Mock Draftable has his height in the 16th percentile, his weight in the fourth percentile and his arm length in the seventh percentile for defensive ends since 1999.
So while he might be a DeMarcus Ware type of pass-rusher, he's also a Bruce Irvin type of run defender. Irvin was drafted 15th overall by the Seahawks in 2012, playing a defensive end role until Seattle eventually realized where his best fit was in base sets: over the tight end as a linebacker.
If Beasley is allowed to play that role early on, he'll thrive with rare athleticism. On third-and-long situations, he'll have a Von Miller impact on a left tackle as well. When all the pieces come together, Beasley's best fit just might be in Jacksonville.
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars select Vic Beasley, EDGE, Clemson
Ninth Overall
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Unless someone has a massive slip on draft day, there's a good shot that the New York Giants address offensive line early on. With a massive hole at center, the Giants need to address the position, but their most efficient way to do so is by shuffling the entire line.
Weston Richburg was drafted by the team last season out of Colorado State as a center, but played guard his rookie year. As a second-round pick, taking over a full-time gig in his sophomore season as a professional passes the sniff test, and moving back to his original position could help him out.
This is where there becomes a split, though. Will New York take an offensive guard? Brandon Scherff of Iowa seems to be the top offensive lineman in the class, but because of positional value, many have tackles graded above him on big boards.
If the Giants do take an offensive tackle, they can move Justin Pugh, their right tackle, to guard, a move which has been discussed since he was a college prospect himself. The Los Angeles Times is running a mock draft with local writers making picks for the squad they cover. In it, Ereck Flowers of Miami is the first offensive lineman off the board, to the Giants at the ninth pick.
After him, Scherff and Andrus Peat of Stanford, a tackle prospect, are mocked back-to-back. La'el Collins of LSU and D.J. Humphries of Florida could also be in the mix. They could be a trade back candidate, but I'm not sure who would want to move up into the top of the second tier of prospects.
To me, Peat seems like the logical pick. Peat would play right tackle, and he would be an improvement over Pugh, who would play guard. Pugh would be an improvement over Richburg, who would fill the starting center role. In one move, the Giants improve three offensive line slots for a quietly aging Eli Manning.
Prediction: New York Giants select Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
10th Overall
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There's typically three ways mock drafts for St. Louis go. The first choice is a wide receiver. The Rams still don't have "the guy" in the unit, but they have spent three high draft picks on Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey and Brian Quick recently. When taking into account the new contract for Kenny Britt, it seems unlikely that they will address the position if Amari Cooper and Kevin White are off the board.
The second option is cornerback, as many think Trae Waynes of Michigan State will be considered the best player available somewhere in this range.
Trumaine Johnson and Janoris Jenkins are a pair of cornerbacks drafted highly in 2012, and they're solid, but not stellar. E.J. Gaines, a cornerback from Missouri, was great last year as a rookie, but he is on the smaller side. Jenkins and Johnson will be competing on the outside with a plan in place for Gaines to master his craft as a slot cornerback.
If the team doesn't feel as though they need to take a shot at a cornerback or receiver, Brandon Scherff of Iowa becomes an option. Scherff played left tackle for the Hawkeyes, but because of his frame and foot speed, he's probably going to be playing as a guard at the next level. Last year's second overall pick, Greg Robinson, played guard early on in 2014 before flipping to tackle.
With Robinson's future at tackle, now that Jake Long left in free agency, there's a vacancy on the line. The seats in St. Louis might be getting warm for the coaches and front office. Nick Foles is their quarterback, and if you're going to need to make a playoff run, you can't afford to have a blatant hole anywhere.
Prediction: Brandon Scherff, IOL, Iowa
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.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
