Predicting Landing Spots for the NFL's Most Controversial Draft Prospects
Projecting college players to the NFL game is already a difficult enough proposition on its own, but the process becomes much more tedious when teams need to sort through the various character concerns and non-football issues that afflict a number of prospects every year.
The 2015 NFL draft is no different, with a handful of top players carrying off-the-field baggage and all the controversy that goes with it.
The challenge for teams is in weighing the on-field talent against any external red flags, especially in today's evolving NFL landscape. At what point does a player's value in helping win games between the white lines outweigh the potential distraction factor off the field? And is there a point where the risk of further controversy is simply too much? Franchises spend millions of dollars and hundreds of man hours to find out those answers.
In most cases, talent can effectively mask other problems. Just ask Arizona Cardinals general manager Steve Keim.
"If Hannibal Lecter ran a 4.3, we'd probably diagnose it as an eating disorder," Keim said of dealing with the draft and off-the-field issues, via Darren Urban of the team's official site.
The quote is telling. For some prospects, one red flag can be the difference between being drafted and searching for a free-agent deal. But for the talented others, a non-football issue here or there might only cost the prospect a few draft slots. Winning trumps everything, and the best talent aids in winning.
In the following slides, we will look at the most controversial draft prospects of the 2015 class. Our goal will be to identify their most likely landing spots while taking into account the baggage they're bringing to the next level.
QB Jameis Winston, Florida State
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Four major incidents from Winston's time at Florida State bring into question the character of a quarterback many believe will be the first overall pick in the 2015 draft.
Here's a quick summary of the four events (a full rundown can be viewed here, via Fox Sports' Kevin Vaughan):
- Stopped and questioned by campus police in connection with damage caused to an apartment complex in an apparent BB gun fight.
- Investigated heavily for a sexual abuse claim, but was never officially charged.
- Caught shoplifting crab legs from a Tallahassee grocery store.
- Suspended for one game after yelling obscenities inside a campus building.
Attach that much baggage to most incoming draft prospects, and the NFL dream is probably over. Not for Winston. The 2013 Heisman Trophy winner and a national championship quarterback, Winston has the size and skills to be an elite, franchise-caliber player at the next level. But any team taking him high will have to look at his behavioral history and worry about handing him to the keys to the club.
That said, talent almost always wins out, and especially at quarterback. The NFL is ever-starved for game-changers at the position. Winston looks like one, and he'll be draft as such—regardless of the extensive off-the-field concerns.
Predicted Landing Spot: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, No. 1 overall
EDGE Randy Gregory, Nebraska
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As is the case with quarterbacks, NFL teams are always attempting to find the game's next impact pass-rusher. Gregory, a 6'5" wrecking ball off the edge, qualifies as one of the draft's premier defenders and a legitimate top-10 talent.
But his lengthy history with marijuana could scare some teams off.
According to Kimberly Jones of NFL.com, Gregory tested positive for the drug at the NFL Scouting Combine.
The Nebraska star claims he's put the problem in the past.
"I don't wake up every day saying, I'd really love to go smoke," he said. "It's not a struggle for me every day (now), it really isn't. In the past, hell yeah, it's been a struggle. It really has been. Now, I'm focused on my dream."
Gregory tested positive for marijuana twice while at Nebraska. A third test would have meant a dismissal from the team. Now, he'll enter the NFL in the first stage of the league's substance abuse program, which is a fast track to an eventual suspension if the marijuana usage continues.
A near lock for the first 10 picks before the failed test, Gregory is now a better bet to suffer a slight fall. But like Winston, his talent at a premium position won't allow him to slide far.
Predicted Landing Spot: New Orleans Saints, No. 13 overall
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Missouri
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There may not be a more perplexing player in the 2015 class than Green-Beckham, a Calvin Johnson-like athlete with loads of upside but also a checkered background fraught with concern.
Recently, Lars Anderson of Bleacher Report went digging on that background to help understand the enigma that is DGB. What he found was a difficult, directionless childhood, which eventually led to later problems and his dismissal from the Missouri football program.
According to Lance Zierlein of NFL.com, Green-Beckham was twice suspended and twice arrested for marijuana offenses while in college. His end at Missouri came in April of 2014, when he was investigated for burglary and assault of a female. He was not charged with a crime, but Missouri coach Gary Pinkel dismissed him from the team shortly after the initial claims.
Green-Beckham eventually transferred to Oklahoma, sitting out the 2014 season due to NCAA rules. He then decided against returning to Norman for the 2015 season to pursue the NFL.
Without the non-football issues, Green-Beckham would be a surefire first-round pick and in the discussion with Amari Cooper and Kevin White for being the top receiver in the class. His projection is far more unknown now, given the obvious red flags and the fact that he hasn't played in a game since the 2013 season. Has Green-Beckham turned a corner, or is he the next Josh Gordon?
Rare is the 6'5" receiver with 4.4 speed. His talent and upside are undeniable. How high Green-Beckham is drafted will likely depend on the level of trust he's built with teams over the last few months.
Predicted Landing Spot: Kansas City Chiefs, No. 18 overall
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CB Marcus Peters, Washington
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Peters might have been the draft's consensus top cornerback had he avoided the non-football issues that eventually led to his dismissal from the Washington program.
Huskies head coach Chris Petersen kicked Peters off the team in early November following several run-ins with the coaching staff, including an on-field tirade and arguments with assistants.
Peters also failed a drug test in 2011 and missed time due to suspensions in each of the last two seasons, per Aaron Wilson of The Baltimore Sun.
It typically takes a lot for a college program to dismiss a talented player, especially one lacking a history of trouble with the law. A broader picture has obviously been painted, and it features Peters as a player with consistent behavioral problems and issues in dealing with authority figures.
"Everybody wants to know the character," Peters said at the combine, via Wilson. "Am I a hot head? Which is false. I've made some immature decisions. I'll learn from it and grow as a man."
Despite the dismissal, Washington kept Peters on scholarship and allowed him to participate in the school's pro day in March.
Football is an emotional sport, but Peters will need to prove his reckless past is, in fact, in the past. A team in the first round will likely gamble on his behavior because of all the talent he possesses in covering receivers.
Predicted Landing Spot: Pittsburgh Steelers, No. 22 overall
LB Paul Dawson, TCU
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College football's most productive linebacker will likely fall down draft boards because of perceived problems with his character and work ethic.
Lance Zierlein of NFL.com wrote that scouts are "very worried about his personal character," while noting Dawson wasn't loved within the TCU program.
"He's an early round player without any question, but you don't have to dig around very deep or very long to realize that his personal character is going to be a major issue for some teams," an AFC scout told Zierlein. "My grade will be two rounds later than just the talent grade. It has to be factored in."
Dawson did nothing to calm work-ethic fears when he bombed his workout at the NFL Scouting Combine. At 6'0" and 235 pounds, Dawson ran the 40-yard dash in a lumbering 4.93 seconds and posted a 28" vertical leap. Both were among the worst at the linebacker position, raising concerns that Dawson did not prepare adequately for such an important event in the predraft process.
The TCU star figures to be a case study in how teams view tape against workouts. Between the white lines, Dawson is the best off-ball linebacker in the class—and probably by a decent margin. But teams don't want to draft a player high that isn't 100 percent committed to the process. Is Dawson ready to be a professional? A club in the top 50 should be willing to find out.
Predicted Landing Spot: Minnesota Vikings, No. 45 overall
CB P.J. Williams, Florida State
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Want to torpedo your draft stock? Do something incredibly stupid less than a month before the start of the draft.
That's the route Williams has taken. Earlier in April, the Florida State cornerback was arrested in Tallahassee for driving under the influence, per Albert Breer of NFL.com. The mistake may end up costing Williams several draft slots and potentially millions of dollars.
"Yes, I had a few drinks," Williams said, via Sports Illustrated. "But I'm definitely owning my mistake today... Right now, I'm just hoping teams just judge me off my film and the type of player I am."
At 6'0" and almost 200 pounds, Williams has the size every team covets at cornerback. He was in the first-round discussion before the arrest, but those Day 1 dreams might now be over.
Williams' DUI arrest wasn't his first traffic incident, either.
The New York Times reported last November about a late October night in which Williams fled the scene of an accident in which he was likely at fault. He returned later, but only received two minor tickets, of which neither was of the hit-and-run variety.
All kids make mistakes, but Williams has made two fairly dangerous mistakes. The NFL might love his coverage ability as a corner, but his decision-making should give teams pause.
Predicted Landing Spot: Detroit Lions, No. 54 overall
EDGE Frank Clark, Michigan
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NFL teams have almost certainly hammered Clark on two separate and concerning incidents from his time at Michigan.
Head coach Brady Hoke was forced to dismiss Clark from the program last November in wake of an arrest for domestic assault. He was accused of punching his girlfriend in front of numerous witnesses at a Ohio hotel. Two years earlier, Clark was arrested for second-degree home invasion after breaking into a dorm room and stealing a computer. He pleaded guilty.
According to The Toledo Blade, Clark reached a plea deal this month on the domestic violence charge. The misdemeanor was dropped to disorderly conduct, while the assault charge was dismissed altogether.
The 6'3", 271-pound Clark is a versatile edge-rusher and a potential Day 2 pick.
"I don't think he gets past the 4th round at the latest," one NFC executive told NFL.com's Lance Zierlein. "Our team felt like he gave honest answers regarding previous incidents and we came away feeling much better about him after speaking to him."
Clark's draft stock has been wholly dependent on how NFL teams view his explanations for the two incidents. If clubs are satisfied with his answers, he could be a top-100 player. If not, Clark could drop like a stone.
Predicted Landing Spot: Seattle Seahawks, No. 112 overall
RB Karlos Williams, Florida State
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The running back position may be devalued in today's NFL, but the professional game will never turn down a 230-pound bulldozer that can blaze through the 40-yard dash in under 4.5 seconds.
Williams fits that description, but his profile also includes a worrisome red flag.
In October, Williams was investigated for potential domestic assault of his pregnant girlfriend. The Tallahassee Police Department eventually stopped the investigation, leaving the case open/inactive unless new information comes forward.
The good news for Williams is that no charges were filed. The bad news is that he's entering an evolving NFL landscape regarding domestic abuse. Teams interested in Williams will be investigating the case and coming up with their own conclusions.
"My grade dropped two full rounds on him and that is before the character stuff," one NFC scouting director told NFL.com's Lance Zierlein. "He still has a very high ceiling though and that's in my report."
Running backs with Williams' size-speed combination are rare, but his mishap forced the NFL's light onto his background. He could fall far down the board if teams don't like what they find.
Predicted Landing Spot: Arizona Cardinals, No. 123 overall
CB Josh Shaw, USC
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Make up a hero story in today's age of news and information and you're bound to be discovered as a fraud. Just ask Shaw.
After originally claiming to have sprained both his ankles in aiding a young family member in a California pool, Shaw was caught in his lie. The real story was not at all heroic, as Shaw eventually admitted to jumping from a balcony to avoid police after getting into an altercation with his girlfriend.
Shaw did not face any charges from the incident, but he was suspended by USC for 10 games. He returned for the team's final two games.
The lie was a ridiculous attempt to avoid trouble, but it's possible teams won't kill him for the mistake.
"I know about the issues he had this year, but I did plenty of background work on Shaw and I had no problem giving him a passing character grade when I turned in my report," a scout for the NFC North told NFL.com's Lance Zierlein.
A well-built, 201-pound defensive back, Shaw should have positional versatility at the next level. Given that most teams have forgiven him for his dishonesty, he figures to be a mid- to late-round pick.
Predicted Landing Spot: Chicago Bears, No. 142 overall
S Tevin McDonald, Eastern Washington
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A member of a decorated football family, McDonald nearly threw away his NFL dreams.
The son of former Pro Bowl safety Tim McDonald and the brother of current St. Louis Rams safety T.J. McDonald, Tevin originally enrolled at UCLA. His two-year stay in Southern California came to an abrupt end in March of 2013, when head coach Jim Mora dismissed McDonald after another violation of team rules.
McDonald failed several drugs tests while at UCLA.
He eventually transferred to Eastern Washington, where he played two seasons. McDonald intercepted four passes and forced four fumbles over 23 games, while also staying out of additional trouble.
He is now projected as a late-round draft pick or priority free agent. Who knows where his draft stock could have ended up had he continued to star at UCLA.
Predicted Landing Spot: Carolina Panthers, No. 242 overall
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