MLB Early-Season Divisional Power Rankings
Throughout the offseason, as franchises make trades and free agents sign, one of the more polarizing arguments always centers on which division is Major League Baseball’s best.
We comb through rosters, set up rotations and figure who and what fit where. And then the regular season starts, and as sure as snow will fall on April baseball in the Midwest and East Coast, those assumptions turn to mush.
So here we are—not yet three weeks into this 2015 season—and while some of our divisional predictions are holding strong for now, others have wilted. Some teams are off to slow starts, others are off to unexpected hot ones, and all of it makes for new debates.
While the first month of the season ticks into May, we have enough of a sample to power rank each of the six divisions in baseball. And they might not fall in line as you thought they would a few weeks ago.
All stats accurate prior to Thursday's games.
6. National League Central (34-38 Division Record Entering Thursday)
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There was a time during this offseason when some people believed the NL Central could be baseball’s best. Exactly why they might have believed that, well, even crystal balls get cloudy from time to time.
“Every team in our division has a realistic hope of winning the division,” Pittsburgh Pirates general manager Neal Huntington told MLB.com columnist Mike Bauman. “It is going to be an absolute battle every game we play within the division, and every game outside the division is going to have that much more meaning, because we're going to beat each other up pretty hard during the season.”
Well, the division might be hotly contested. But that is true only because it lacks a great team that is capable of running away with the title by the time the dog days of August hit.
The team that led the division for the most days last season, the Milwaukee Brewers with 159 days in first place, collapsed late in 2014 and has picked up where it left off in 2015, losing 13 of its first 15.
The defending division champions and the team currently leading the division, the St. Louis Cardinals, have pitched well. They lead the league in starter ERA (2.30) and bullpen ERA (1.78). For now, they are still the best team here.
Aside from St. Louis, the Pirates and Cincinnati Reds have been unimpressive. While the Chicago Cubs are certainly improved, they still appear a season away from truly contending based on a lineup that on any given day can have an average age of 25 years old. However, if they continue to play well, this division’s rating will get significantly better.
5. American League West (34-42)
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Going into this season, this division threatened to be among the best. The Los Angeles Angels won a major league-best 98 games last year, and the Oakland A’s earned a wild-card berth, beating out a Seattle Mariners team that contended until the final days.
This year the Angels figured to be just as good. The Mariners appeared to be better with the full-time additions of Nelson Cruz, Taijuan Walker and James Paxton, and the A’s, while rebuilt, still had a rotation capable of contending.
But every one of those teams went into Wednesday’s games below .500. The Houston Astros, who lost 92 games last year, sit in first place at 8-7 going into Thursday.
Maybe the most concerning stat is that the Mariners’ rotation has a 5.59 ERA, the second-highest number in the league.
“Obviously, when you don't pitch well, that's a reason to be concerned," manager Lloyd McClendon told reporters. "I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned about it. We've got to get it straightened out, because we're much better than we've shown to this point."
It is still early enough that these standings can completely turn downside up, and the Angels, Mariners and A’s are still more likely to finish in the top three spots than the Astros or Texas Rangers.
But for now, this has been the majors’ most disappointing division.
4. National League East (36-38)
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This was to be a group that featured possibly the best team the game has seen since the 102-win Philadelphia Phillies in 2011 and two strong up-and-comers in the Miami Marlins and New York Mets. Regardless if everyone was totally buying in, you could at least make the case that each one of those teams was better than it was a season before.
So far, only the Mets have lived up to expectations, and they’ve also exceeded them through their first 15 games, going 12-3 and grasping the best record in the majors after winning a 10th consecutive game Wednesday. Injuries have hit them of late, but with a rotation that features only one pitcher with an ERA higher than 3.50, they appear capable of absorbing the hits.
“I really believe winning is contagious,” Mets manager Terry Collins told reporters. “It's fun. People like it. When you're in these kinds of streaks everybody wants to do their part.”
The Nationals have been baseball’s biggest disappointment, sitting at 7-8 with a shoddy defense, an offense that has not found a groove and a rotation that has just been solid after being billed as a possible all-time great.
As for the Marlins, one could argue they made upgrades over the offseason, but they still lack good starting pitching, as proved by their rotation’s 5.30 ERA, which is second worst in the league. Beyond that, the offense that was supposed to be one of their showcase assets has not shown up, and they find themselves 4-11 and in last place.
The real surprise here has been the Atlanta Braves, who won their first five games after selling off pieces during the offseason in order to rebuild. They have come back to earth, though, losing five of their last seven.
It is possible the Nationals rebound and leave the division in their wake, but the way the Mets are pitching, they are showing that the NL East can be a two-team fight all summer. And the way the Marlins, Braves and Phillies are playing or are expected to play, they could give this group three sub-.500 finishes.
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3. American League East (39-36)
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The AL East might have been the most difficult division to project coming into the regular season. Every team had the potential to fight for a place atop the standings. But all of them had potentially fatal flaws that could hold them back.
The Boston Red Sox have one of the biggest blemishes with their rotation, which lacks an ace or even a legitimate No. 1 starter. The rotation has a 5.71 ERA going into Thursday, the second-worst mark in the majors, and has forced the bullpen to throw 58 innings this season, the second-highest total in the AL.
“We’re still about winning every night as best we can but in time, I’m hopeful and certainly expect that our starters will get close to 21 outs per outing rather than 15-plus,” manager John Farrell told reporters Wednesday. “You’d like to have every turn through, maybe one or two times where you get into the seventh inning to give the multi-inning guys a breather.”
And not even their revitalized offense has lived up to the hype, ranking 12th in the league in slugging percentage, 10th in OPS and last in doubles.
Fortunately, they have benefited from an early schedule that gave them the Philadelphia Phillies and the Washington Nationals while they’ve struggled.
Only one pitching staff, the New York Yankees, ranks in the top five in overall ERA in the AL, with the other four teams checking in at eighth or lower going into Thursday. Still, three of those teams are above .500, which is the most of any division except the National League West.
The AL East has the potential to be better than third out of six as the season goes on, but it also has the potential to get worse if the pitching woes do not improve greatly.
2. American League Central (39-34)
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Traffic was supposed to be a lot denser in this division. The Chicago White Sox underwent roster improvements over the offseason, and the Cleveland Indians were supposed to be one year closer to contending with maybe the league’s best rotation.
So far, only the two top teams from a season ago have looked anything like contenders. The Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals are tied in first with 11-4 records, making this something of a top-heavy division.
"For those keeping score at home, the best record in MLB is shared by Mets, Tigers and Royals. AL Central battle already taking shape.
— Mike Marza (@MikeMarza) April 22, 2015"
Despite the rest of the division being below .500, the Indians rotation leads the league with 94 strikeouts—the second-place Red Sox have 80—and it has a .695 opponents’ OPS, the fourth lowest in the league. Entering Wednesday, it also led the league with 11.48 strikeouts per nine innings and a 2.0 FanGraphs WAR. So there is still plenty of potential here for the Indians to rebound.
As for the White Sox, their rotation has a 4.91 ERA, and the offense has produced 50 runs (12th in the league) and a .696 OPS (ninth). While it is quite possible both parts of the team improve, they also have the potential to remain fairly mediocre.
But as long as the Tigers and Royals continue to show they are a couple of the league’s best clubs, this division will be looking good.
1. National League West (41-35)
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The NL West has the best combined record of any of the six divisions. It houses four teams playing above .500. The one club below that mark won the World Series last year.
"nl west currently consists of 4 winning teams, plus the world champs
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) April 21, 2015"
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorite in this division and have played like it, putting together steady pitching with a dynamic offense to this point.
The San Diego Padres underwent the most drastic offseason makeover in the majors, and they find themselves tied for first with the Dodgers through 16 games.
The Colorado Rockies have one of the league’s best offenses, and a healthy Troy Tulowitzki is considered a luxury at this point.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are second in the league in runs scored, and Paul Goldschmidt is already shaping up to be an MVP candidate yet again.
And while the San Francisco Giants have struggled all around, they’ve done so before and still found a way to contend come September. To count them out now would be foolish.
For now, this is the deepest division in the majors and the only one at this point that can legitimately say it expects to have three teams fighting for playoff spots. It is also the only one good enough to even dream of fielding three postseason teams.
As long as health remains a relative non-issue, the NL West is good enough to be the best division through the entire season.
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