Kentucky Derby 2015 Contenders: Favorites' Chances Based on Recent Results

The Kentucky Derby is about a week away, and things are heating up rather quickly.

Based on Bovada's most recent odds for the Kentucky Derby, via Odds Shark, we're looking at three horses (American Pharoah, Dortmund and Carpe Diem) who will likely go into race day with odds of 10-1 or better.

Given the close grouping among the current top three choices, it will be difficult to separate which one you should key on top of your ticket from the rest of the group. Fortunately, that's what this is for.

This piece will assess the legitimacy of each horse's Derby aspirations based on its most recent performance. To start, take a look at the chart below, which details each of American Pharoah, Dortmund and Carpe Diem's most recent performances:

Horse Name	Race	Length	Jockey	Finishing Time	Margin of Victory
American Pharaoh	Arkansas Derby (G1)	1 ⅛ Mile	Victor Espinoza	1:48.52	8 Lengths
Dortmund	Santa Anita Derby (G1)	1 ⅛ Mile	Martin Garcia	1:48.73	4 ¼ Lengths
Carpe Diem	Blue Grass Stakes (G1)	1 ⅛ Mile	John Velazquez	1:49.77	3 Lengths

Each horse had its own impressive victory last time out, but one shines above the rest. Which one? Read on to figure that out.

Dortmund

Dortmund's most recent showing came over the 1 ⅛-mile track at Santa Anita. If there's one thing to know about Santa Anita's dirt track, it's that it plays heavily into the favor of early speed.

On April 4, Dortmund hit the dirt to take on five would-be challengers in the Santa Anita Derby.

The Big Brown colt broke straight to the lead and put up what look like underwhelming fractions detailed in the chart below:

Splits	¼	½	¾	1 Mile	Finish
Time	22.46	46.36	1:10.57	1:35.68	1:48.73
Lead (In Lengths)	½	1	1	4	4 ¼

After that first quarter in 22.46 seconds, Dortmund went on to post slower fractions in each of the remaining quarters. Those slow fractions weren't for lack of trying, though; Martin Garcia had him under a stranglehold until they entered the turn for home.

When he was finally asked, Dortmund ratcheted it up a notch and opened up to a four-length victory over what should have been a lively field of contenders.

Two of Dortmund's adversaries in the Santa Anita Derby were projected to run in the Derby, those being Bolo and One Lucky Dane.

One Lucky Dane wasn't right in the Santa Anita Derby, though, and just recently withdrew from the Derby trail due to a condylar fracture developing in his front left foot, according to The Associated Press (per The New York Times). Meanwhile, Bolo, a Temple City colt, looks more and more like a turf specialist posing as a dirt runner.

Even so, despite the lack of worthy challengers, this is a horse who is capable of doing anything and everything his rider asks of him. Compared to the other half of the revered Bob Baffert duo, Dortmund is rather underappreciated and should pose the biggest threat to early favorite, American Pharoah.

One parting note on Dortmund: Don't take the fact that he breezed through the Santa Anita Derby too lightly. Two of the last three winners of the Santa Anita Derby—California Chrome and I'll Have Another—went on to win both the Derby and the Preakness while the other winner (Goldencents in 2013) is a back-to-back winner of the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.

Carpe Diem

In terms of margin of victory, Carpe Diem's victory in the Blue Grass Stakes was the least impressive. The Giant's Causeway colt managed just a three-length victory in the Grade 1 Blue Grass and was extremely impressive when he dominated that field back on April 4.

Carpe Diem broke first but fanned out wide through the first turn, allowing Ocho Ocho Ocho to claim an early lead.

Under the steady hand of Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, Carpe Diem pushed the pace, riding along in second place through the first quarter in 24.15 seconds. Never trailing by more than a length, Carpe Diem worked to a half in 48.05 and ¾ mile in 1:12.18.

As they entered the turn for home, Carpe Diem showed impressive kick, maneuvering through the five path just wide of Ocho Ocho Ocho. After seizing the lead, Carpe Diem never looked back and managed that three-length victory while pulling away from second-place finisher Danzig Moon.

Carpe Diem's margin of victory was the shortest of the three favorites we're looking at, but what most aren't noticing is the fact that he bested both Ocho Ocho Ocho and Danzig Moon, both of whom are projected to run in the Derby, per Michael Watchmaker of The Daily Racing Form. 

Carpe Diem has run up against better competition than Dortmund in recent showings, and it should serve him well as he looks to extend out over 1 ¼ miles at Churchill Downs.

American Pharoah

That leaves us with the big boss, American Pharoah. This Pioneerof the Nile colt is the real deal, and his most recent effort in the Arkansas Derby was all the evidence we needed to solidify that sentiment.

Ridden by last year's Derby winner, Victor Espinoza, American Pharoah broke second and tucked to the rail, a solid 2 ½ lengths back of Bridget's Big Luvy. Espinoza and American Pharoah bided their time as they were led through a quarter in 22.77 seconds, and a half-mile in 45.99 seconds.

After ¾ mile, American Pharoah had turned a three-length deficit into a one-length one, and by the time they reached the mile marker, he had opened up a 5 ½-length lead. AP finished the race with a rousing eight-length lead over would-be challenger Far Right.

Three—count 'em, three—horses projected to run in the Derby followed AP: Far Right, Mr. Z and Madefromlucky. Madefromlucky, the fourth-place finisher who on Friday was announced to be out of the Derby field, finished the race a mind-boggling nine-plus lengths back of American Pharoah.

Beyond all that, if you believe what Baffert had to say about him early last week (depicted below), then the win is just that much more impressive.

Finishing Thoughts

Despite the impressive nature of Carpe Diem's victory, this is a two-horse race. So what do we have to work with?

Although it doesn't seem like it, American Pharoah and Dortmund put up extremely similar finishing times of 1:48.73 and 1:48.52 seconds, respectively. I guess that's what happens when you win by eight lengths (American Pharoah) as opposed to four lengths (Dortmund).

Technically, Dortmund was the faster horse in his Santa Anita Derby victory, but the dirt track at Oaklawn Park doesn't play quite as heavily toward speed, and I like the way he rated without Espinoza holding him back too much.

The 1:48.52 time we saw American Pharoah throw up in the Arkansas Derby was the best since Rockamundo all the way back in 1993, per Horse Racing Nation, while Dortmund's 1:48.73 was a full second slower than Cali Chrome's winning time in the same race last year (1:47.52).

Simply put, American Pharoah's slightly slower romp of a victory in the Arkansas Derby is more impressive than Dortmund's slightly faster four-length victory over a track with a heavy speed bias.

American Pharoah is, and will be, the horse to beat on May 2.