NBA Mock Draft 2015: Full 1st-Round Projections on Early Declaration Deadline
Tick one of the first major dates off the 2015 pre-draft calendar. Sunday marks the official deadline for college players to announce their intention to enter this year's draft early, giving us a near-finalized list of talent to assess.
Of the major names expected to enter, Utah center Jakob Poeltl, Providence guard Kris Dunn and Michigan guard Caris LeVert are the highest-profile first-rounders to return to school. Poeltl was a top-20 lock but can move himself into the lottery with a solid senior season. LeVert is a borderline first-round talent and probably can't do much damage by returning and exercising his full four years of eligibility. Dunn might have found his way into the top 20 as well, though the lottery is a possibility a year from now.
Others like Maryland's Melo Trimble and Gonzaga's Kyle Wiltjer will also be returning to school. For the most part, though, we're looking at a class filled to the brim with underclassmen.
Led by Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns and Duke's Jahlil Okafor, as many as 10 one-and-done players would wind up hearing their name called in the lottery. Include the foreign talent, and Willie Cauley-Stein is arguably the only lottery lock who is able to purchase alcohol. (Apologies to Frank Kaminsky, who I think will wind up in the back half of the lottery.)
With that in mind, let's take a look at where all these youngsters could be headed, highlighting the lottery.
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky |
| 2 | New York Knicks | Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke |
| 3 | Philadelphia 76ers | D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State |
| 4 | Los Angeles Lakers | Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China |
| 5 | Orlando Magic | Justise Winslow, SF, Duke |
| 6 | Sacramento Kings | Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA |
| 8 | Detroit Pistons | Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona |
| 9 | Charlotte Hornets | Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky |
| 10 | Miami Heat | Mario Hezonja, SF, Croatia |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | Frank Kaminsky, F/C, Wisconsin |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | Myles Turner, PF, Texas |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns | Kelly Oubre, SF, Kansas |
| 14 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky |
| 15 | Atlanta Hawks (via Brooklyn Nets) | R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State |
| 16 | Boston Celtics | Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky |
| 17 | Milwaukee Bucks | Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame |
| 18 | Houston Rockets (via New Orleans Pelicans) | Tyus Jones, PG, Duke |
| 19 | Washington Wizards | Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin |
| 20 | Toronto Raptors | Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville |
| 21 | Dallas Mavericks | Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas |
| 22 | Chicago Bulls | Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State |
| 23 | Cleveland Cavaliers | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF, Arizona |
| 24 | Portland Trail Blazers | Christian Wood, PF, UNLV |
| 25 | Memphis Grizzlies | Terry Rozier, PG, Louisville |
| 26 | San Antonio Spurs | Delon Wright, PG, Utah |
| 27 | Los Angeles Lakers (via Houston Rockets) | Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas |
| 28 | Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers) | Robert Upshaw, C, Washington |
| 29 | Brooklyn Nets (via Atlanta Hawks) | Jarell Martin, PF, LSU |
| 30 | Golden State Warriors | Dakari Johnson, C, Kentucky |
Top Five
1. Minnesota Timberwolves: Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Kentucky
Minnesota is one of a few teams with a pretty obvious choice if it lands the top overall selection. This team is going nowhere fast next season; finishing with a bottom-three record is entirely in play. Andrew Wiggins is nowhere near ready to lead a franchise, Zach LaVine is still only scratching the surface of his talent and Ricky Rubio still shoots as if he plays dizzy bat before every game.
Towns is one or two years away from being a potential star, which puts him right in line with the expected Wiggins/LaVine ascent. He'll also fill a need left by Nikola Pekovic, who will be traded this summer if Flip Saunders has any good sense about him.
2. New York Knicks: Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke
The Knicks and Phil Jackson can preach patience all they want. James Dolan isn't paying Jackson $12 million a season for the lottery; he could have brought Isiah Thomas back at half the price. Jackson's arrival was supposed to bring a sense of competency back to basketball in New York, and he knows that better than anyone.
All of this is why it'd be perfect for the Knicks to land at No. 2. Okafor has a lower long-term ceiling than Towns. Selecting him at No. 1 would be a clear sign to any logical observer that Jackson and Co. are feeling the pressure and are looking to select the player who can make the quickest impact.
Landing at No. 2 and having Okafor fall to them, however, removes all blame from the situation. Okafor and Towns are going No. 1 and No. 2. The order will just say a lot about the mindset of the teams atop the lottery.
3. Philadelphia 76ers: D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State
After spending the last few years drafting assets rather than basketball players, it's time for Sam Hinkie to begin building a real foundation. He can start his long-term backcourt with Russell, a versatile combo guard with the skill set of a pre-knee injury Brandon Roy. The Ohio State product can knock down threes off the dribble or spotting up, is a plus passer for a natural 2-guard and can grab rebounds despite having non-elite athleticism.
Odds are he'll top out as an average defender, but Hinkie selected Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid for that exact purpose. Whichever one he keeps long-term—no, the Sixers will not attempt to start them both; that would be insane—can clean up the occasional mess Russell leaves. With Philly building the template for a competent defense in 2014-15, Russell's a strong beginning to building toward competency on the other end.
4. Los Angeles Lakers: Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China
The Lakers, like the Knicks, have a bit of a crossroads selection here. They selected Julius Randle at No. 7 a year ago because he was the most NBA-ready talent available. (He was also the top remaining player, but whatever.)
In this scenario, selecting Mudiay means acknowledging the playoffs are at least another year away. Mudiay, for all of his physical talents, remains extremely raw. He needs the ball in his hands to be effective, offering next to nothing as a spot-up shooter. Watching Mudiay and a healthy Kobe Bryant figure out how to share the ball would be a fascinating subplot to watch next season.
That said, the Lakers have to select Mudiay if he's there. The kid might've been the No. 1 overall pick had he not skipped out on the college experience to play in China. 247Sports' composite rankings separated Mudiay and Okafor by literally the thinnest possible margin a year ago. Factor in the Lakers' never-ending search for a competent point guard, and you have a perfect long-term match.
5. Orlando Magic: Justise Winslow, SG/SF, Duke
The Magic have been taking talent over ideal fit for a few years now to middling results. I still have no clue how Elfrid Payton and Victor Oladipo are going to work as a functional backcourt, even if Oladipo did make some strides as a shooter last season. The team also has to decide whether it's bringing back Tobias Harris, whose 10-percentage point leap in three-point shooting is either a really promising sign or a massive outlier.
Winslow fits the "talent over fit" motto, but doesn't entirely work when I think about it from a basketball perspective. Throwing Payton, Oladipo and Winslow together as a defensive trio would be holy hell for opposing offenses. It'd also have the express opposite effect on the other end, where Winslow can spot up for three or dribble-drive to the rack—and that's about it.
Oladipo and Winslow in some ways have overlapping skill sets. But, to my eyes, there is a clear five best players before dropping down a tier. Winslow is the last available in the top tier and might be able to make the fit work if he improves his jumper consistency.
Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.
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