10 Trades MLB Teams Should Already Be Thinking About
Early-season trades are fairly rare, as the MLB trade market generally does not get going until summer rolls around, but it's never too early to start talking potential swaps.
At this point in the season, trade rumors center around two different types of situations:
- A player becomes expendable for one reason or another, and his team looks to trade him either to open up a roster spot, acquire prospect talent, save money or some combination of the three.
or
- A team has a glaring weakness early on that will need to be addressed before the July trade deadline rolls around. In-house options are generally exhausted before a team looks to the trade market, but the answer is not always currently part of the organization.
So with that in mind, the following is a look at 10 trades MLB teams should already be thinking about—five of each of the scenarios described above.
Cincinnati Reds: Adding a Setup Reliever
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Overview
Injuries and a lack of production from their stars can certainly be blamed for the Cincinnati Reds' disappointing 76-86 finish last season, but the bullpen did not do them any favors either.
Their relief corps finished the season ranked 26th in the league with a 4.11 ERA, contributing an 11-31 record and converting 44-of-63 save chances.
Despite those struggles, not much was done to address the bullpen this offseason, as veterans Kevin Gregg and Burke Badenhop marked the only notable additions as low-cost free-agent signings.
Flame-throwing closer Aroldis Chapman (8 G, 4/4 SV, 0.00 ERA, 14 K, 8 IP) has been lights out once again this season, but it's been a struggle bridging the gap to him once again.
Through Tuesday, the rest of the relievers had combined for a 6.39 ERA and had blown four saves in 31 innings of work.
If this team is going to have any chance of being a surprise contender in the NL Central, things will need to turn around quickly in the late innings.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Upgrading at Catcher
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Potential Targets
Welington Castillo (CHC), Dioner Navarro (TOR), Carlos Ruiz (PHI), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (MIA)
Overview
For the first time since 2009, someone other than Miguel Montero was behind the plate for the Arizona Diamondbacks on Opening Day.
The two-time All-Star was traded to the Chicago Cubs this offseason in a cost-cutting move, and the Diamondbacks surprised more than a few people when they decided against pursuing any external options to fill the gap.
That left last year's backup, Tuffy Gosewisch, as the primary option heading into the season.
While he's a solid defender, the 31-year-old Gosewisch hit just .225 with a .553 OPS in 129 at-bats last season. He's been ever worse offensively so far this season, posting a .191 average and .431 OPS in 47 at-bats.
With the Diamondbacks off to a decent start, the idea of upgrading at catcher could become a bit more appealing in the days and weeks to come.
Welington Castillo and Dioner Navarro were both pushed to the bench by offseason additions to their teams and are known to be available.
Carlos Ruiz and Jarrod Saltalamacchia are both on the books through the 2016 season, but both could probably be acquired for relatively cheap. Ruiz, like every other veteran on the rebuilding Phillies, is expendable, while Saltalamacchia is being pushed by top prospect J.T. Realmuto.
Toronto Blue Jays: Adding a Veteran Starter
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Potential Targets
Dillon Gee (NYM), Aaron Harang (PHI), Kyle Lohse (MIL)
Overview
As expected, the Toronto Blue Jays offense has been among the best in the league this season, but that won't mean much if their pitching doesn't turn things around.
Veterans R.A. Dickey (3 GS, 0-1, 3.26 ERA, 19.1 IP) and Mark Buehrle (3 GS, 3-0, 4.00 ERA, 18.0 IP) have been steady, but the trio of young arms backing them up has struggled mightily.
Drew Hutchison along with rookies Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris have gone a combined 3-3 with a 6.17 ERA in their nine starts.
The decision to trade J.A. Happ during the offseason was expected to open things up for a competition between the two highly touted rookies for the No. 5 starter job, but when Marcus Stroman was lost for the season to a torn ACL, both were thrust into rotation duties.
As for Hutchison, the 24-year-old showed enough last season in going 11-13 with a 4.48 ERA (3.85 FIP) and 184 strikeouts in 184.2 innings that many had him pegged as a breakout candidate here in 2015.
Those three starters still represent a big part of the team's future plans, but for a team looking to win now, adding a veteran arm to the back of the rotation is something that will have to be seriously considered if the struggles continue.
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San Diego Padres: Upgrading at Shortstop
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Potential Targets
Elvis Andrus (TEX), Starlin Castro (CHC), Eduardo Escobar (MIN), Jean Segura (MIL)
Overview
Shortly after the season started, the San Diego Padres and general manager A.J. Preller were said to be "scouring the shortstop market" for an upgrade at the position, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
If you kept tabs on the Padres during the offseason, that shouldn't come as much of a surprise, as the new GM has been wheeling and dealing for months looking to turn the team into an immediate contender.
The team is currently employing the platoon of Alexi Amarista and Clint Barmes at the position, and while those two have combined to hit .280/.357/.420 so far, there is nothing in their respective track records to suggest that is sustainable.
Barmes is currently leading the way with a .333/.385/.542 average, but that comes with a .412 BABIP, according to FanGraphs, so look for those numbers to level off in the near future.
Starlin Castro and Elvis Andrus are names that always pop up on the shortstop market, but the chances of either player actually being traded remain slim. The same goes for Jean Segura, who the Milwaukee Brewers would be selling low on if they moved him now.
In the end, a low-cost option could be the route the team goes if it does wind up adding anyone, and Eduardo Escobar could be a good fit.
The 26-year-old hit .275 with a .721 OPS in 433 at-bats for the Minnesota Twins last season, but with Danny Santana settling in as the everyday shortstop, he has to be considered expendable.
Boston Red Sox: Adding a Front-Line Starter
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Potential Targets
Johnny Cueto (CIN), Cole Hamels (PHI), Scott Kazmir (OAK)
Overview
One of the biggest stories of the offseason was the Boston Red Sox's decision to go without adding a bona fide ace to the top of their new rotation. Some questioned whether or not they could legitimately contend without a front-line arm to lead their staff.
Nearly three weeks into the season, the rotation has done little to ease those concerns.
Joe Kelly (3 GS, 1-0, 4.08 ERA), who opened the season as the No. 5 starter, is currently the only rotation member with an ERA under 5.50. As a group, the starters rank dead last in the league at the moment with a 5.71 ERA.
There is no question that the Red Sox made the right decision holding onto Mookie Betts this offseason, rather than pulling the trigger on a deal for Cole Hamels, but that does not mean an ace-caliber arm is not still a pressing need.
Chances are a deal won't come until the deadline in July, but if the Red Sox are going to make a push for the AL East title and beyond, it's something they need to be working toward.
New York Mets: Trading Dillon Gee
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Potential Landing Spots
Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies, Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota Twins, Toronto Blue Jays
Overview
A season-ending injury to the New York Mets' Zack Wheeler forced veteran right-hander Dillon Gee back into the rotation to open the season after he was originally ticketed for the bullpen.
That said, according to Andy Martino of the New York Daily News, the team is still open to trading the 28-year-old.
"Gee could go anytime, if a need arises elsewhere," wrote Martino. "If the Mets are unable to move him, [Rafael] Montero will eventually replace Gee in the rotation, barring injury or regression. According to sources, there is no debate that Montero will get the first opportunity, before prospects Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz."
Gee went 12-11 with a 3.62 ERA over 32 starts in 2013, earning him the Opening Day nod in 2014. Injuries limited him to 22 starts last year, and he finished the season 7-8 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.
After allowing 13 hits and nine earned runs in 10.2 innings in his first two starts, Gee finally pitched well on Wednesday, allowing eight hits and two runs in seven innings for a no-decision.
Gee is making just $5.3 million this season, and he's under team control through 2016, so he could eventually spark some interest for a team looking to add a cheap, controllable source of innings with some upside.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Trading Aaron Hill
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Potential Landing Spots
Los Angeles Angels, Washington Nationals
Overview
It's been a roller-coaster career for Aaron Hill, dating back to his breakout 2009 season with the Toronto Blue Jays, when he posted an .829 OPS with 36 home runs and 108 RBI.
Following a pair of subpar seasons, he rebounded to hit .302/.360/.522 with 26 home runs and 85 RBI in 2012. But injuries limited him to just 87 games the following season, and last year his numbers fell to .244/.287/.367 in 501 at-bats.
The Arizona Diamondbacks opted to go with Chris Owings and Nick Ahmed as their starting middle infielders to open the season, leaving the 33-year-old Hill as an expensive bench player.
He is under contract for $12 million this year and another $12 million next season, but if the Diamondbacks were willing to eat the majority of that money, they might be able to find a taker.
Chances are they would have to settle for a low-level minor leaguer in return, but it would open up a spot on the bench and might save a couple million in the process. It may be a matter of waiting for injury to strike to find a taker, though.
Atlanta Braves: Selling High on Jason Grilli
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Potential Landing Spots
Cleveland Indians, Pittsburgh Pirates, Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays
Overview
An 8-6 record is better than most people expected the Atlanta Braves to post through their first 14 games, but they've already started to come back to earth, going 2-5 in their last seven games.
The pitching staff has led the way to this point, as it ranks 13th in the league with a 3.70 ERA, and the bullpen in particular has been solid with a 3.22 ERA that is good for 11th overall.
Trading Craig Kimbrel just before the start of the season left a gap in the closer's role, and the team turned to veteran Jason Grilli as the next in line for the job.
The 38-year-old signed a two-year, $8 million contract in the offseason, and he's been lights out so far, converting all six of his save chances with a 1.50 ERA and a 5.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio in six innings of work.
For an Atlanta Braves squad that sold so aggressively in the offseason, it may not take many more losses for this team to start fielding calls on Grilli, as there are already some sketchy closer situations around the league.
Relief pitching tends to be particularly overvalued at the deadline, but selling high on Grilli might be the best move for the Braves, as he's been inconsistent over the past few seasons, which has decreased his value considerably.
Milwaukee Brewers: Trading Kyle Lohse
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Potential Landing Spots
Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians, New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays
Overview
Kyle Lohse is rarely mentioned among the game's top starters, but he's been rock solid over the past four seasons pitching for the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers.
The 36-year-old has gone 54-30 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.14 WHIP while averaging 199 innings per season during that span, and he's currently pitching in the final year of a three-year, $33 million deal.
Add to that the fact that he pitches for a Brewers team that is off to an abysmal 2-13 start, and he seems like a decent bet to be traded at some point between now and the July 31 deadline.
That said, his 2015 campaign could not have gotten off to a worse start, as he's currently 0-3 with a 10.34 ERA (5.89 FIP) in 15.2 innings of work over his first three games.
It will probably take stringing together at least a couple solid starts before anyone would entertain the idea of trading for him, but don't be surprised if Lohse is the first one out the door in Milwaukee, and it could come long before the trade deadline if the team keeps piling up the losses.
Philadelphia Phillies: Trading Cole Hamels
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Potential Landing Spots
Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays
Overview
Cole Hamels remains the most talked about trade chip on the market, and for the rebuilding Philadelphia Phillies, unloading their ace could be a big step forward as far as adding a wealth of young talent to the mix.
According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, a major league general manager said that the asking price for the left-hander has dropped "not one bit" since the start of the season, and Philadelphia is content letting things play out until the deadline rolls around.
It has not exactly been a start to remember for Hamels through his first four appearances of 2015, but he did pitch well enough to win in another no-decision on Wednesday.
- G1: L, 5.0 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 6 K
- G2: ND, 7.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
- G3: L, 6.0 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 7 K
- G4: ND, 6.0 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
That all adds up to 0-2 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 23 strikeouts in 24 innings.
Hamels is a relative bargain at $94 million over the next four seasons, so the Phillies no doubt have a valuable trade chip on their hands. However, at some point they need to turn him into a package of prospects for the good of their rebuild.
It's another case where a deal might not get done until the deadline, but they should still be aggressively shopping him now and potentially laying the groundwork for a deal later on down the road.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted, and accurate through Wednesday, April 22.
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