2015 NFL Mock Draft: Bold Predictions for Most Overrated Prospects

An NFL prospect can be seen as overrated for a variety of reasons.

He might have played in a system in college that inflated his numbers. There's also the prospect who comes from a program so packed with talent that his deficiencies are hidden. Then there's the combine/physical metrics freak who hasn't ever really dominated on the college level, but his athletic gifts have talent evaluators salivating. 

In all these cases, there's a chance that the player will pan out or fall flat. This mock draft focuses on three players who fit one or more of the aforementioned profiles. Because of the legitimate concerns, each is a bit overrated heading into the 2015 NFL draft.

Pick	Team	Selection
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida
4	Oakland Raiders	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
5	Washington	Leonard Williams, DT, USC
6	New York Jets	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
7	Chicago Bears	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
8	Atlanta Falcons	Vic Beasley, OLB/DE, Clemson
9	New York Giants	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
10	St. Louis Rams	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
11	Minnesota Vikings	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
12	Cleveland Browns	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
13	New Orleans Saints	Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri
14	Miami Dolphins	Breshad Perriman, WR, Central Florida
15	San Francisco 49ers	Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
16	Houston Texans	Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska
17	San Diego Chargers	Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
19	Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo)	T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Landon Collins, S, Alabama
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
23	Detroit Lions	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
24	Arizona Cardinals	Alvin "Bud" Dupree, OLB, Kentucky
25	Carolina Panthers	D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida
26	Baltimore Ravens	Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut
27	Dallas Cowboys	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
28	Denver Broncos	Arik Armstead, DE/DT, Oregon
29	Indianapolis Colts	La'el Collins, OL, LSU
30	Green Bay Packers	Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
31	New Orleans Saints (via Seattle)	Benardrick McKinney, LB, Mississippi State
32	New England Patriots	Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma

Breshad Perriman

David Manning-USA TODAY Sports

The Central Florida Knights' Breshad Perriman has every physical tool an NFL team would want besides great hands. Unfortunately, his 4.27 40-yard-dash, 6'2", 217-pound frame and 36.5-inch vertical won't matter much if he can't consistently catch the football.

Lance Zierlein of NFL.com said this of Perriman's penchant to drop passes: "[He has] slow catch readiness, allowing too many throws to beat him up. Too much double-catching, and his focus-drops over second half of the season were maddening to watch."

Master Tesfatsion of the Minnesota Star Tribune was even more specific in his criticism of Perriman:

"

Bad hands are a killer, too. Look, you didn’t need to see Perriman in tights and a compression shirt to see that he’s fast. On go routes, he was consistently on top of the defender, even if his tape was mainly against AAC opponents. Per Pro Football Focus, Perriman had a 14 percent drop rate. 

"

There's no questioning Perriman's game-breaking speed. Because he's also a second-generation player (his father is former Detroit Lions wide receiver Brett Perriman), some will believe that Breshad has the genealogy to become a solid player in his own right.

Perriman did have 50 receptions for 1,044 yards and nine touchdowns in 2014, but the dropsies were an issue with AAC-level cornerbacks checking him. Will we see an increase in this troubling statistic in the NFL? It's reasonable to suggest we might. With those concerns, it's difficult to co-sign on Perriman being a top-15 pick.

He looks like a player who will struggle with route running and making contested catches as a rookie. How he maintains his confidence, health and work ethic will dictate how far he goes from there.

Nevertheless, almost every expert mock draft you see has him in that range. Unless otherwise noted, mocks are a projection of where the author sees a player being selected, not necessarily where he or she believes the player should be drafted.

Randy Gregory

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

With good but not great college production, size concerns and an ill-timed lapse in maturity, the Nebraska Cornhuskers' Randy Gregory isn't jumping out as a can't-miss prospect.

In 2013, Gregory notched an impressive 9.5 sacks. In 2014, that number dropped to seven. That's still a solid number, but it's far from dominant. Based on where we've seen Gregory projected to go during the lead-up to the draft, you'd expect a little more.

Granted, there have been pass-rushers in the past with limited collegiate production who have made a real impact. The Houston Texans' J.J. Watt had just 11 sacks in two years for the Wisconsin Badgers.

However, there's more layers of concern for Gregory.

He measured 6'5", 235 pounds at the NFL Scouting Combine. That makes him about the same size as Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson. Megatron is a huge wideout, but that frame is still alarmingly slight for a player who figures to have to earn his money on the line of scrimmage as a 3-4 outside linebacker or 4-3 defensive end.

Lastly, there's his failed drug test at the combine. Failing a drug test is always bad, but doing it at the combine is like coming up dirty at a job interview. That's not a good look. 

There have been players who have overcome one of Gregory's three issues, but the former Cornhusker has to deal with all of them. Hopefully he'll rebound and have a productive career, but the dynamic surrounding him makes it hard to say he should be taken in the first round.

Gregory has "bust" written all over him. He's undersized and just doesn't appear to have the motor or maturity to make himself into the professional he needs to be. Here's hoping I'm wrong.

Jameis Winston

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Most mocks still have the Florida State Seminoles' Jameis Winston as the No. 1 pick, but that status may not take his deficiencies seriously enough. 

We all know about Winston's short but troubling history of allegations and proven instances of poor conduct, collected and linked by Evan Grossman of Men's Journal (h/t ESPN.com, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports and Deadspin). The rap sheet is enough to raise a major red flag that should push Winston out of consideration for the No. 1 pick.

On the field, everything isn't exactly A1.

Winston saw his interception total balloon from 10 in his Heisman Trophy season of 2013 to 18 in 2014. His touchdown passes dropped even more significantly from 40 to 25. Let's be honest: If an NFL quarterback threw 25 touchdown passes and 18 picks in a season, most would rate him as average.

A player about to be selected No. 1 overall should have better numbers in his last college season. We certainly hope Winston matures off the field, but there may also be some legitimate concerns about his decisions between the lines as well.

Winston is going to be an above-average NFL quarterback as long as he stays out of trouble. However, I'm not sure he'll ever become the type of star most would expect when a quarterback is taken No. 1 overall.