Best-Kept Secrets of the 2015 NFL Draft Class
We're at the point during the draft season where the top 100 names have been rattled off to death for the general public. With the big weekend on the horizon, some more meat gets put on the media bone, as fans become more interested in Day 3 selections.
Every season, players are overlooked. Sometimes it's due to the economics of the draft. Maybe, there's an under-the-radar blocking tight end who isn't getting enough credit in today's pass-happy league.
Sometimes a player is "too young" and needs a redshirt year at the NFL level, sitting as an inactive player on game day but making the 53-man roster. Other times, a player is "too old" and is viewed as someone who has already peaked.
There are also players with off-field narratives and players who have recently or are going to switch positions. Remember, there are thousands and thousands of college football players in this draft class. Not everyone has clean history regarding both injuries and off-field issues, and started four years in a Power Five conference.
Lost in the shuffle are the players who don't fit that storyline, the undervalued potential stars of the future.
Shane Carden, QB, East Carolina
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For some reason, most draft writers love to attribute later-round quarterbacks with upside. There is something to having a developmental quarterback on the bench, but there's more than just that role. Sometimes passers are just solid backups, a top-50 passer who shouldn't be a starter but might help a team out of a pinch when the top quarterback inevitably goes down with an injury.
Bruce Gradkowski, who has played nine seasons in the NFL with five different franchises, is a great example of this. After starting 11 games for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a rookie, he's bounced around as a safety net on teams' two-deep depth charts. In this class, there's a Gradkowski clone.
Shane Carden of East Carolina is on the shorter side for the position. Standing at a shade under 6'2", he doesn't have the ideal frame for a 16-game player, but his skill set is quality enough to not worry about the position, if you already have "your guy."
As a redshirt senior who's going to be 24 years old when his rookie season is over, he might be overlooked due to size and age, but he also has three years of quality FBS football behind him. That experience is a trait which others in this class, like Bryce Petty of Baylor and Brandon Bridge of South Alabama, can't provide.
Philip Rivers is a solid player who has made a great progress in the NFL without a giant arm, instead playing smart, conservative football. Carden's potential isn't that high, but he can be a poor man's version of Rivers off the bench. Some teams will be in a rush to grab lottery tickets, passing right over the sound passer.
Marcus Rush, EDGE, Michigan State
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When watching Michigan State's defense last season, I was fixed on their defensive end, Shilique Calhoun. Calhoun was a junior who some believed could have been a first-round pick if he had declared. When he decided to stay for his senior year, I limited the film that I saw from that defensive line, as there was no one else on any watch lists who seemed draftable.
I was wrong to do so. Catching on late in the process, I was told to pop in Marcus Rush, the 6'2" boundary defensive end on the team. Despite the fact that he's just a year younger than Robert Quinn, who was drafted in the 2011 draft class, I'm a big fan.
Rush has the ability to bend the edge, stay stout against the run and he has great hand technique. Other than his age and frame, his only issue is his average to below average closing speed. He may not be the type to generate sacks, but he'll generate pressure.
Currently being viewed as a free-agent prospect, Rush's film says "draftable player." He's best as a 3-4 outside linebacker for a team who has a base edge-rusher who puts his hand in the dirt in nickel and dime reps. Matching him as a role player behind a Justin Tuck-type will be his best scenario at the next level.
Devin Gardner, WR, Michigan
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Every season, there are players who drop down draft boards significantly. With an entire year of film to correct past evaluations and gather new information, this is a logical part of the process. To me, though, the fall off of Devin Gardner seems too steep.
At one point, Gardner looked like he had the potential of a legitimate NFL quarterback. Moving Denard Robinson, then a senior, from quarterback to running back at Michigan, he was clearly labeled by that coaching staff as the future of the program. The Wolverines went through a rough stretch over the past two years, though, resulting in a new coaching staff, headed by Jim Harbaugh, and lifeless potential for Gardner to see the professional level as a passer.
With that being said, Gardner may not have played his best position, when looking at it from the NFL perspective. At 6'4", he was able to net four touchdowns off of 16 catches in 2012, a large rate for a part-time player.
People often wonder what Ryan Tannehill would look like if he would have stuck at receiver. Gardner may be the living answer to that question. As a red-zone threat, he should prove prosperous to an NFL team, as his giant frame will be a huge mismatch for basically every defensive back he'll face from here on out.
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Quinton Spain, IOL, West Virginia
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Entering 2014, Quinton Spain was one of my sleeper offensive linemen for what was the coming senior class. As a left tackle, he was a bit miscast, but it was to my surprise that he moved inside his senior year to guard. Not too often does the best blocker on the team flip to a non-premier position at the college level, as even NFL teams struggle to find quality left tackles on a consistent basis.
If the move at West Virginia was driven by scouts telling him about his draft stock, it appears they made the correct move. Though he's still not being talked about often in the media, he's as consistent as they come. A progressive team might take him at the end of Day 2 or in early Day 3, which would more than likely label him as the shock selection of the draft.
Though he was as big a combine snub as can be, he has the chance to be the Josh Sitton of the class: the fringe-draftable labeled interior offensive lineman by the media who is taken in the middle rounds, only to have an All-Pro NFL career. If nothing else, he can be a swing offensive lineman early on, saving roster spots as he can play in a pinch at both guard spots and center his rookie season.
Darius Philon, DL, Arkansas
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It's not too often that you can say there's a player in the Southeastern Conference who doesn't get enough publicity. Being widely considered the best conference in college football, it seems like the national eyes are set on the SEC each and every Saturday in the fall.
Still, Darius Philon is not discussed. A defensive lineman from Arkansas, Philon has been able to notch 20.5 tackles for losses and 7.5 sacks over the past two years. For nearly any other interior defensive lineman, this would have initiated draft "hype." There's one big thing against Philon, though: he's only a redshirt sophomore.
With an unfilled frame, his best football is still ahead of him. No one can quite project how well he'll be at the next level, but he has the potential to be a solid 3-technique defensive tackle in a 4-3, also known as an undertackle. Because of his quick jump, he has upside to get after the passer, which in today's NFL is a big plus. If a team sets aside a year for Philon, they could capitalize on a first or second-round talent from a Day 3 selection.
Corey Robinson, OT, South Carolina
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Everyone is obsessed with dancing bears, and for good reason. When you have a giant who can move like a pass-rusher, you can absolutely shutdown the edge on the offensive side of the ball, saving your quarterback from punishment. That's why players like Tyson Smith are valued so highly at the NFL level.
There's only so many quality left tackles in the league, at least that have that skill set. If you aren't a rare athlete, the best way to win is through recovery. Like cornerbacks, offensive tackles can make up some athletic shortcomings with length. When you're looking at right tackles, strength and length should be top priorities for attributes.
Corey Robinson of South Carolina provides that. According to Mock Draftable, he is in the top-10 percentile for both hand size and arm length at the position. Facing SEC competition on a week-to-week basis, Robinson has already seen what top edge players can do, and he's handled himself well. The issue is that he's probably a year away, with the help of an NFL weight room, from starting.
On the bench, he'll only be able to fill one spot: right tackle. That is important, because NFL teams usually only suit up eight or fewer offensive linemen, and five of them have to start. So while Robinson is a smart "down the line" move, the two other bench players in his first year will need to be flexible enough to cover the four other bases outside of right tackle.
Terry Williams, DL, East Carolina
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To me, Terry Williams is one of the most interesting prospects in the draft class. He has a multitude of obstacles, but, on film, he might be the best nose tackle in the class. It's not crazy to watch Williams and think, "He's better than Danny Shelton," given only that information.
Williams, at a shade under 6'0" and 329 pounds, showed up at East Carolina as a linebacker. That seems impossible, as he's about 100 pounds heavier than NFL off-the-ball linebackers. Because of that, I think you have to consider if he's going to keep ballooning at the next level. If he's just consistently growing, assuming that step as a professional is a bit of a gamble.
On top of that, he looked like he was 350 pounds on film, but that could just be his short frame holding that much weight. He also was suspended four times while at East Carolina. So, while he may be a great run defender, he's going to have to prove multiple issues in his past won't come with him as baggage in the NFL. Teams are going to overlook him because of those traits, but if a fire of inspiration comes under him, he has a shot to make a Pro Bowl in the future.
A.J. Derby, TE, Arkansas
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While most are talking about Blake Bell, Oklahoma's converted quarterback who now plays tight end, there's another southern former-passer who is also worth taking on Day 3. The idea of quarterbacks switching to a "move tight end" role has been a recurring theme in recent years. Some thought that Tim Tebow should have made the switch after his first couple of stints in the NFL as a below-average passer.
A.J. Derby of Arkansas is one of the players who actually went through the transition, though. Standing at 6'4" with a 4.69 40-yard dash, to say he's an explosive athlete would be understating his potential. With only one year at the position, it's hard to expect just what he brought to his college team, after all, we've seen players switch from different sports to find success in the NFL as tight ends.
The tight end position is one with the feel for space between the 20-yard lines and explosion in the red zone. If Derby can prove that he can learn the nuances of the game, then the sky is the limit. As a former quarterback, it would seem logical that he has a higher "football IQ" than most tight ends, making the transition a little easier for himself.
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