Early-Season MLB Overreactions You Should Avoid Making
Overreacting to the daily results of our favorite teams is as much a part of baseball as batting practice, hot dogs and rain delays. Forget the whole "the regular season is a marathon, not a sprint" nonsense—fanatics don't want to hear it, and quite frankly, they aren't listening to those who say it anyway.
Making sweeping conclusions about a player or team after just a few weeks of the regular season—especially when the results are strikingly different from what preseason projections and track records tell us—is an easy trap to fall into. But it's one that you should avoid at all costs.
If you insist on making those conclusions anyway, at least do yourself a favor and don't tell your friends about it. Because at some point this summer, one of them is going to remind you of what you said back in April—and you're not going to appreciate it.
What follows are five of the biggest overreactions one could—but should not—make at this early juncture.
Atlanta Is a Playoff Team
1 of 5
It's hard to say which is more surprising—that the Atlanta Braves have gotten off to an 8-4 start or that their offense, which wasn't expected to produce, has scored as many runs on the season (54) as its high-powered counterpart in Colorado.
But the good vibes coming out of Turner Field aren't going to last, as the Braves won't have the luxury of beating up on a hapless Miami Marlins squad all season long. Half of their games thus far—and half of their wins—have come against their overrated division rival.
Only nine of the team's next 31 games are against teams you'd consider to be legitimate contenders—three against an upstart New York Mets club that hasn't lost a game since the Braves beat them on April 11 and six against the Washington Nationals.
So it's entirely possible that the Braves could make it to late May in pretty good shape. But then the baseball gods turn on the club, as Atlanta embarks on a brutal 36-game stretch from May 25 to July 2 in which only one team on the schedule (the Arizona Diamondbacks) isn't a contender.
| Arizona | 3 |
| Boston | 4 |
| Los Angeles (NL) | 3 |
| New York (NL) | 6 |
| Pittsburgh | 6 |
| San Diego | 4 |
| San Francisco | 4 |
| Washington | 6 |
Perhaps brutal wasn't the right word. That's just downright unfair.
Last year, we watched the Braves get off to a 17-9 start only to see them go 62-74 the rest of the way. They did that with players like Evan Gattis, Jason Heyward and Justin Upton still in the mix. They're all gone, replaced by the likes of Jonny Gomes, Nick Markakis and A.J. Pierzynski, all of whom are off to scorching starts.
History tells us that their bats and the Braves' winning ways are both going to cool off as the season progresses. Braves fans should enjoy the ride while they can. Things are going to get bumpy the rest of the way.
Jered Weaver Is Done
2 of 5
After a nine-year stretch that saw him put up some sneakily good numbers—131-69, 3.28 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 124 ERA+, 32.7 WAR—Jered Weaver is no longer an ace capable of leading the Los Angeles Angels to the promised land. Truth be told, he's probably the team's No. 3 starter behind Garrett Richards and Matt Shoemaker and might be No. 4 if Tyler Skaggs was healthy.
Couple that with a fastball that hasn't averaged 90 mph since 2011 (it currently sits a tick over 84 mph, according to Brooks Baseball) and that he's pitched to a 6.61 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with four home runs allowed in three starts and, well, it'd be understandable if Angels fans were freaking out.
But even with all of that ugliness, Weaver can still be a productive member of a major league rotation. We saw signs of that in his most recent start against Houston on April 17, when he threw six innings of six-hit, two-run ball.
"Fastball command was better," Weaver told the Orange County Register's Jeff Fletcher after the game. "Ball-strike ratio was a lot better. I was getting ahead a lot better. Just felt a lot more comfortable mechanically and arm slot wise."
His manager, Mike Scioscia, agreed with his assessment, saying, "I thought Jered was more of what we expect. Ball-strike ratio much more align with how he’s going to pitch. He commanded counts great, got some big outs when he needed them."
While it's easy to point to his drop in velocity as a reason why he's done, let's not forget that in the three full seasons he's pitched without a 90 mph heater, Weaver has gone 49-22 with a 3.24 ERA. He knows how to succeed with what he's got left in the tank.
He may no longer be great or a perennial contender for the AL Cy Young Award, but Weaver is still capable of being a quality contributor in a contender's rotation.
Washington Isn't as Good as We Thought
3 of 5
The last time the Washington Nationals woke up on April 21 with a losing record, Bryce Harper was a high school sophomore. That was back in 2009, when the Nationals lost 10 of of their first 12 games and just kept on losing, finishing the year 59-103.
Things aren't quite as dire in 2015, but the Nationals sit with a losing record (6-7), four games behind the first-place New York Mets in the National League East. That's not exactly where anyone expected to find the club, which came into the season facing lofty expectations.
A few more things nobody expected: Ian Desmond forgetting how to field a ground ball and the trio of Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann going a combined 3-4 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in eight starts.
But expectations have a way of blinding us from the reality of the situation, and that wasn't lost on first baseman Ryan Zimmerman.
"Nobody's ever won anything in eight games or lost anything in eight games. Nobody's really ever won anything in the first 25 or 50 games," he told MASN Sports' Chris Johnson. "So, obviously, [the season] is really young, but the bottom line is we just need to play better."
And the Nationals have started to play better, winning four of their last five games. The club is also starting to get injured pieces back, with center fielder and leadoff hitter Denard Span making his regular-season debut this past Sunday against Philadelphia.
Anthony Rendon, the team's most valuable position player, continues to make progress in his return from a sprained MCL in his left knee, general manager Mike Rizzo tells The Washington Post's James Wagner, though there's still no timetable for his return.
Not only is the 24-year-old capable of sparking the team's offense—his 130 wRC+ in 2014 trailed only Jayson Werth (141) for the team lead—but he'll help solidify the team's defense as well, whether he plays second base or third.
Once Rendon returns to action and manager Matt Williams has the Opening Day roster that he envisioned at his disposal, the Nationals will begin to resemble the powerhouse that we all expect them to be.
.png?w=256)
Chicago Will Disappoint Yet Again
4 of 5
Getting off to a slow start is never a good thing, especially in a division that features two of the American League's best (and hottest) clubs in the Detroit Tigers and the Kansas City Royals. While the Chicago White Sox sit only two games below .500 (5-7), they find themselves nearly six games out of first place.
Much of the blame has been heaped on manager Robin Ventura's shoulders, and that's fine. He's certainly made his fair share of head-scratching decisions, and as the leader of the club, it's on him to get the team playing better than it has been.
"There are more weapons at [Ventura's] disposal," general manager Rick Hahn told the Daily Herald's Mike Imrem. "It's only fair for all of us to be judged by a different standard."
But passing judgement on Ventura less than a month into the season would be insane. He's only had his ace, Chris Sale, for two starts, and most of the big weapons that Hahn added to the roster—Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche and Jeff Samardzija—have gotten off to slow starts.
While he's gone deep three times, even Jose Abreu has scuffled at the plate, mustering a .255/.300/.553 slash line that sits well below the .317/.383/.581 line that he produced in 2014.
"Eventually that stuff will level out, and you'll be at what your norm is," Ventura told MLB.com's Scott Merkin. "But to get there means they're going to get hot at some point. I'd rather have that."
Patience isn't something that most fans have, but the White Sox have far too much talent in the lineup for things to continue like this for too long.
"Our best way to handle the [high] expectation is to keep the focus simple," Cabrera told Merkin. "To try hard every day and just think of what we can do and not what else the other teams can do. Just think of us and be confident in our talent."
Be confident, Sox fans. Better days are coming.
Jon Lester Is the Biggest Bust of the Offseason
5 of 5
For $155 million, the Chicago Cubs thought they were getting an experienced, front-of-the-rotation arm who could come in and serve as a veteran leader for a young, up-and-coming team in Jon Lester.
Instead, the Cubs have gotten a bloated ERA (6.89), WHIP (1.79) and lessons in how not to throw the ball to first base. You couldn't fault Cubs fans for wondering if the club would have been better off spending that money elsewhere or whether Lester might be the biggest bust of the offseason.
"Like I've always said, I'm accountable for my actions and my actions right now are not where they need to be, and that will change," Lester told ESPN.com's Doug Padilla. "I've done this for a pretty long time and I understand where we're at. Now it's a matter of making those in-game adjustments when I need to."
Lester has pitched through the sixth inning only once in his three starts, none of which qualify as a quality outing. Opponents are hitting a robust .353 against him, and while his velocity is slightly down across the board, according to Brooks Baseball, none of the dips are enough to be a cause for concern.
"We're talking to him all the time, and he made a lot of progress today, so it was a good day," Cubs manager Joe Maddon told Padilla after Lester's April 19 start against San Diego, in which he allowed three earned runs over 5.1 innings of work.
Maddon added, "He sets high standards for himself and I understand that. I really do appreciate that. He was better. Next time out, you should see him beginning to put it all together. That would have been the conclusion of spring training for him today."
That last part shouldn't be overlooked. Lester made only three spring starts for the Cubs and tossed only 8.1 innings, less than half the total of fellow starters Jason Hammel (6 GS, 25 IP) and Travis Wood (6 GS, 20.1 IP).
He's continued to show improvement—albeit not as quickly as fans would like—and with his track record of success, there's no reason to believe that he won't be back to the Lester of old before long.
Unless otherwise linked/noted, all regular-season statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs and are current through April 20. All spring training statistics are courtesy of MLB.com.
All contract information courtesy of Baseball Prospectus' Cot's Baseball Contracts.
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
.png?w=480)
