'Buy or Sell' with MLB's Top Early Rookie Performances of 2015
Extreme early-season performances, whether positive or negative, are generally more scrutinized than a midseason hot or cold streak.
Simply put, that .100 or .400 batting average for a hitter, or the 1.00 ERA or 5.00 ERA for a pitcher, really stands out on the scoreboard during the first month of the year.
That often goes double for rookies, who are either looking to prove they belong at the big league level if they're struggling or looking to prove their hot starts are sustainable.
With that in mind, what follows is a look at 10 rookies—five hitters and five pitchers—that are off to strong starts in 2015 and my thoughts on whether to buy or sell their performance so far.
To be considered for this list, prospects had to fit the following qualifications:
- At least 25 at-bats for a position player.
- At least two starts for a starting pitcher.
- At least five appearances for a relief pitcher.
Note: For the record, Jorge Soler is my NL Rookie of the Year pick and I 100 percent buy his hot start. In an effort to focus on more compelling "buy or sell" cases, he was not included among the following rookies.
SP Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks
1 of 10
2015 Stats
2 GS, 1-0, 1.42 ERA, 0.868 WHIP, 6 BB, 10 K, 12.2 IP
Player Overview
Archie Bradley has ranked as the top prospect in the Arizona Diamondbacks system for two years running now, and he kicked off 2015 as the No. 25 overall prospect in baseball, according to Baseball America.
The 22-year-old right-hander has been viewed as the future ace of the staff since being taken with the No. 7 pick in the 2011 draft, and after an injury-plagued 2014 season, he won a rotation spot out of camp this spring.
Bradley threw six shutout innings of one-hit ball in his big league debut and followed it up with another quality start last time out. He takes the mound next against Yovani Gallardo and the Texas Rangers on Wednesday.
Buy or Sell: Buy
He's not going to keep pitching to a sub-2.00 ERA all season, but Bradley is the real deal. Josh Collmenter just threw a complete-game shutout his last time out, but don't be surprised if it's Bradley who is the unquestioned ace of the staff when 2015 comes to a close.
SP Anthony DeSclafani, Cincinnati Reds
2 of 10
2015 Stats
3 GS, 2-0, 0.86 ERA, 0.619 WHIP, 4 BB, 16 K, 21.0 IP
Player Overview
Originally drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays back in 2011, right-hander Anthony DeSclafani has already been traded twice in his young career, but it looks like he's found a home with the Cincinnati Reds.
The 25-year-old pitched to a 6.27 ERA in 33 innings of work for the Marlins last season, but his minor league track record was enough to make him one of the favorites to land a rotation spot heading into spring training with his new team.
He indeed won a spot, opening the season as the No. 3 starter and allowing five hits and two runs in six innings for a no-decision in his first start.
He followed that up with seven shutout innings of two-hit ball against the Chicago Cubs, and then did one better on Monday night with eight shutout innings of two-hit ball against the Milwaukee Brewers.
Buy or Sell: Sell
His 0.86 ERA to this point has been accompanied by a 2.83 FIP and if that's where he winds up finishing the season, the Reds will no doubt be thrilled to get that out of the back of their rotation. He looks like a long-term piece of the puzzle, but he's playing over his head at this point.
RP Yimi Garcia, Los Angeles Dodgers
3 of 10
2015 Stats
6 G, 2-0, 1.29 ERA, 0.571 WHIP, 1 BB, 12 K, 7.0 IP
Player Overview
Yimi Garcia entered the season as the No. 12 prospect in the Los Angeles Dodgers system, according to the Baseball America Prospect Handbook.
The 24-year-old reached Triple-A last season for the first time, posting a 3.10 ERA, 1.246 WHIP and 10.2 K/9 over 47 appearances.
Garcia broke camp as one of three rookies on the Dodgers roster, and he has put up some impressive numbers early on, most notably his two relief wins and 15.4 K/9 mark.
Buy or Sell: Buy
Relief wins are fluky, but with a career 11.0 K/9 and 3.10 ERA during his time in the minors, there is no reason Garcia can't be a reliable arm out of the Dodgers pen this season. The eventual return of Kenley Jansen could mean less high-leverage situations for Garcia, but he can still be a useful power arm.
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CF Odubel Herrera, Philadelphia Phillies
4 of 10
2015 Stats
13 G, .302/.362/.512, 13 H, 5 2B, 2 3B, 3 RBI, 6 R, 3 SB
Player Overview
With the No. 9 pick in the Rule 5 draft, the Philadelphia Phillies scooped up 23-year-old infielder/outfielder Odubel Herrera, who had been left unprotected by the Texas Rangers.
An impressive spring training won him not only a roster spot, but the everyday center field job, and he's been one of the few bright spots in the early going for a Phillies team that most expect to be among the worst in baseball.
Herrera split last season between High-A and Double-A, hitting .315/.383/.388 with 26 extra-base hits and 21 stolen bases, and he has made the big leap to the majors look easy through the first two weeks of the season.
Buy or Sell: Sell
Herrera has some legitimate tools offensively, as evidenced by his .294/.354/.377 line during his time in the minors. However, he's been the beneficiary of a .394 BABIP (via FanGraphs) so far this season. Once that luck levels out a bit, his batting average will likely follow suit.
SP Chris Heston, San Francisco Giants
5 of 10
2015 Stats
3 GS, 2-1, 0.87 ERA, 0.968 WHIP, 5 BB, 16 K, 20.2 IP
Player Overview
With Matt Cain sidelined to start the season, the San Francisco Giants turned to 27-year-old right-hander Chris Heston to fill his spot in the rotation.
Heston got his first taste of big league action last season, and while he had enjoyed some success in the minors, he was viewed more as organizational depth than a legitimate rotation candidate.
The Baseball America Prospect Handbook described him as a "crafty right-hander who succeeds without any pitch that grades out as even average" and goes on to describe his upside as "a reliable emergency start option," but little else.
His first three starts this season would indicate otherwise:
- G1: W, 6.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
- G2: L, 7.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
- G3: W, 7.2 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
"He's a four-pitch guy with command," Giants manager Bruce Bochy told Chris Haft of MLB.com. "That really works."
Buy or Sell: Sell
Heston has been one of the biggest surprises of the first two weeks of the season, and pitchers with below-average stuff, but excellent command and feel for pitching have certainly succeeded before. That said, it's hard to see him keeping up at anywhere near his current pace.
3B Jake Lamb, Arizona Diamondbacks
6 of 10
2015 Stats
10 G, .414/.514/.690, 12 H, 3 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 4 R
Player Overview
Known more for his defense at third base than his bat coming out of the University of Washington, Jake Lamb was better than expected offensively at every stop of his minor league career.
The 24-year-old hit .327/.407/.566 with 39 doubles, 15 home runs and 84 RBI in 108 games between Double-A and Triple-A last season, before taking over as the team's primary third baseman down the stretch following the trade of Martin Prado.
The Diamondbacks' decision to sign Yasmany Tomas and try him out at third base looked to be a significant road block for Lamb, but instead the Cuban slugger was shipped to the minors to open the season, and Lamb has cemented his role with a hot start.
Buy or Sell: Sell
His current numbers obviously are not sustainable, as a ridiculous .440 BABIP (via FanGraphs) has contributed to him hitting over .400 to this point.
That said, I do think there's a reasonable chance he locks up the everyday third base job and forces Tomas to the outfield. He could be the guy at the hot corner in Arizona for the foreseeable future.
RP Cody Martin, Atlanta Braves
7 of 10
2015 Stats
7 G, 1-0, 2 HLD, 1.00 ERA, 0.889 WHIP, 2 BB, 13 K, 9.0 IP
Player Overview
Used primarily as a reliever in college, Cody Martin moved into a starting role after being taken by the Atlanta Braves in the seventh round of the 2011 draft.
Martin has ranked among the Braves' top 20 prospects each of the past four seasons, according to Baseball America, checking in as high as 11th prior to 2014.
With the bullpen in Atlanta undergoing a significant retooling this offseason, Martin has returned to relief duties, and he's quickly carved out a role as the seventh-inning guy bridging the gap to closer Jason Grilli.
Martin does not have overpowering stuff, with a fastball in the low-90s and no clear strikeout pitch among his off-speed stuff, but he has solid command and knows how to pitch.
Buy or Sell: Buy
With the Braves currently in the process of rebuilding, Martin is one of a handful of young players that will be counted on to fill a key role this season. He does not have the stuff to close, but the 25-year-old could carve out a nice role as a reliable setup man.
CF Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers
8 of 10
2015 Stats
12 G, .289/.438/.553, 11 H, 4 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 8 R
Player Overview
The big reason the Los Angeles Dodgers pulled the trigger on trading Matt Kemp was the $75 million they unloaded in the process, but the move also opened up an everyday job in the outfield for top prospect Joc Pederson.
Pederson tore up Triple-A pitching last season, hitting .303/.435/.582 with 33 home runs, 30 steals and an impressive 100 walks. But with the Dodgers already dealing with a logjam in the outfield, he saw just 18 games of big league action.
A .338/.377/.692 spring line that included five doubles and six home runs cemented his place on the Opening Day roster, and he's helped stabilize a Dodgers offense that underwent a good deal of change this winter.
Buy or Sell: Buy
Pederson has always struck out a decent amount, and he's already fanned 17 times in his first 38 at-bats this season. However, he's also walked a team-high 10 times. So while his average could eventually drop off some, he should still be able to post a respectable on-base percentage with good power and speed numbers.
RF Steven Souza Jr., Tampa Bay Rays
9 of 10
2015 Stats
13 G, .289/.373/.533, 13 H, 2 2B, 3 HR, 10 RBI, 5 R
Player Overview
Steven Souza was the key prospect piece heading to the Tampa Bay Rays in the three-team, 10-player deal that sent Wil Myers to the San Diego Padres during the winter meetings.
With the Rays offense lacking much in the way of impact bats outside of Evan Longoria, the 25-year-old Souza was expected to step in and hit from the start, and he's done just that.
His first home run of the season was a 463-foot blast to dead center field in Toronto, and he has legitimate middle-of-the-order run-production skills.
A .345/.427/.577 line with 25 doubles, 18 home runs and 28 stolen bases in 100 minor league games last season vaulted him onto the top prospect radar, and now he looks like a core piece for the Rays moving forward.
Buy or Sell: Buy
I still think the Rays should have been able to get more in return for Wil Myers, even with the 24-year-old coming off of a down 2014 season. However, Souza could go a long way in helping the team forget about the former AL Rookie of the Year.
2B Devon Travis, Toronto Blue Jays
10 of 10
2015 Stats
13 G, .356/.408/.644, 16 H, 4 2B, 3 HR, 12 RBI, 9 R
Player Overview
With Ian Kinsler locked in at second base for at least the next three seasons with an option for a fourth, the Detroit Tigers shipped second base prospect Devon Travis to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for center fielder Anthony Gose.
A 13th-round pick in 2012, Travis hit .298/.358/.460 with 20 doubles, 10 home runs and 16 stolen bases in a full season at the Double-A level.
He managed to beat out incumbents Ryan Goins, Maicer Izturis and Steve Tolleson for the starting job during the spring, and he's been just another weapon in a stacked Blue Jays lineup so far.
Buy or Sell: Sell
The 24-year-old Travis probably won't keep up his current pace in the power-number department, and a .371 BABIP and 4.1 percent walk rate (via FanGraphs) are pretty good indicators that his average is going to come down to earth. However, the tools are there for him to be a steady everyday second baseman.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted and cover games through Sunday, April 19.
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