Most Likely Week 1 Starters in the 2015 NFL Draft
Every NFL franchise hopes its draft will yield players who can come in and be Week 1 starters. The window for picks, especially top picks, is getting a little bit smaller every year. As teams find themselves being pushed against the salary cap by veteran contracts, the onus on top rookies to come in and play early increases.
Every year, we see top prospects who struggle to acclimate to the NFL game, while others seem to just walk onto the field and straight into starting spots. There’s no definitive formula for being a Week 1 starter, but here are some factors:
Versatility
The ability to play multiple positions gives players better chances of seeing the field early.
Experience
Players who have built up substantial college resumes understand the physical demands of the game.
Scheme Fit
Until the draft happens, this is impossible to predict. However, some guys look like they could flourish in multiple schemes, which helps their case for early reps.
Talent
This one appears to be a no-brainer, but in the great debate of potential versus talent, if you want a player to get onto the field early, having a higher level of talent now, with perhaps a lower ceiling, makes it easier to justify early snaps.
Here are my eight guys with the best odds to be Week 1 starters based on these factors, regardless of which team drafts them.
Player data and stats courtesy of the college football section of Sports-Reference.com.
Leonard Williams, DT, USC
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If we are checking off the boxes for what makes a rookie starter-ready, we should look at USC defensive tackle Leonard Williams. Since he walked onto campus, Williams has been a fixture for the Trojan defense, amassing 39 starts in only three seasons.
Another big plus for Williams is his powerful frame (6’5”, 302 pounds). Williams has not only the build but also the experience at both defensive tackle and defensive end. He is as adept playing as a 3-technique tackle in a 4-3 as he is sliding outside and playing as a 5-technique defensive end in a 3-4.
Oh, and does Williams have talent? Yes. He is easily the best defensive prospect in this draft and could be considered the top overall prospect as well. He is a powerhouse and wins with his overwhelming physicality and athletic advantage. Whichever team drafts him will figure out a way to get him onto the field soon.
Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
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If you are a rookie wide receiver and want to start early, you had better do one of two things. First, you'd better offer your new team serious versatility in terms of route concepts and positions you can play on the field.
Or second, you had better do something so much better than anyone else that your coaches can't keep you on the sidelines. Alabama wide receiver Amari Cooper falls firmly into the former category. He has a tremendous all-around game, and in study of his film, there are few holes in his overall package.
Cooper also gets a nod here because he was groomed to play in the league in a pro-style system. He was the focus of the Alabama passing offense and never failed to deliver. He might not be the first wide receiver drafted, but don’t be surprised if he’s the first one named a starter.
Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
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In breaking down this defensive tackle class, a few points stand out. One is that, with all the talent in this class, there aren’t a tremendous number of prospects who are ready to line up inside and rush the passer in the NFL. There are plenty of big maulers who can plug the middle and smash running backs, but getting after the quarterback is a different matter altogether.
One defensive tackle in this group does have some legitimate pass-rushing ability right out of the gate: Texas defensive tackle Malcom Brown. I keep seeing mocks that want to put him at nose tackle, but that’s not what is going to get him onto the field early. For example, if you look at the expert mocks on NFL.com, four of the six posted mock drafts have Brown going to a team that runs a 3-4 base defense.
Brown has the look of a natural 3-technique tackle who can play as a one-gap, penetrating tackle to rush the passer. The league is full of run-stuffing tackles, but few teams have a player like Brown who can help out the defensive ends by rushing the pocket from the middle.
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Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
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Sometimes you don’t have to overanalyze why a player will start early. In the case of Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon, let’s not make this more complicated than it needs to be.
Gordon is the best running back in this class for multiple reasons, not the least of which is that he is going to be ready to report to camp healthy and play from the jump. For as talented as Georgia running back Todd Gurley is, his rookie season could be a wash because of his torn ACL.
The team that drafts Gordon is going to do so early, and it is going to do so with the intention of getting him onto the field. In particular, if the Wisconsin star goes in the first round, you can bet he is going to a team devoid of quality running backs and excited to get his combination of balance, speed and vision.
Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
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This offensive line class is something of a mystery. There are some fascinating athletes in this group such as D.J. Humphries of Florida and T.J. Clemmings from Pitt and they get a lot of love. In the aformentioned expert mocks, both are in the first round of all six mocks. However, Neither Humphries or Clemmings have great experience to build off of. The NFL is all about results. If a team can get a guy onto the field early—and playing at a high level—everyone is happy.
The offensive tackle in this group most likely to crack a spot in the starting lineup in Week 1 is Iowa's Brandon Scherff. The 2014 season saw Scherff win the Outland Trophy as the country’s top offensive lineman and score first-team All-American honors. He finished his college football career with 36 starts, including 26 over the past two seasons.
He is battle-tested and polished beyond any other offensive lineman in this draft. There’s no adjustment from some novel college offense, and triangle numbers don’t trump up his draft stock. Smart teams will recognize that he is a football player—a really talented football player. And whether it be at guard or tackle, some team will figure out a way to get him onto the field.
Cameron Erving, C, FSU
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If you ascribe to the notion that some teams will draft based on need over selecting the best player available, then you understand why it is likely Florida State center Cameron Erving is going to be selected near the end of the first round.
That being said, whichever team drafts Erving will be doing so to put him on the field. He made a fascinating position switch during the 2014 season, going from being a good tackle to a downright great center. No team is going to draft him in the first round and hope he’s ready to start in two years. If he goes early, he’ll be penciled in as a starter right away.
Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA
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With the proliferation of 3-4 defenses in the NFL, the value of highly productive and active inside linebackers is at an all-time high. Most 3-4 defenses want one inside linebacker who can be the quarterback of the defense, and the other is expected to be more aggressive in his assignments.
UCLA linebacker Eric Kendricks is one of the most disruptive linebackers in this entire draft. He plays downhill and closes with speed and power. His size might preclude him from an early starting spot in a 4-3, but with a larger strong-side backer next to him in a 3-4, Hendricks can be free to chase and tackle, which is what he does best.
Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
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By the logic that put Cooper on this list, USC wide receiver Nelson Agholor is also a prime candidate for being a Day 1 starter. He has shown the ability to line up inside or outside in a pro-style offense and work through a complex route tree. He finishes routes, which NFL teams love, and fights for extra yards on every play.
Agholor will likely slip a bit because he lacks ideal measurables, but that could work in his favor. He should end up on a team that already has a true top wide receiver in place, and he could come in as a No. 2 or No. 3 option and get a ton of snaps. Considering the number of teams that run three-wide-receiver sets, playing as a No. 3 will be as good as starting for Agholor.
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