Kentucky Derby 2015 Post Positions: Odds and Predictions for Every Horse
You needed a mint julep to cut the tension in the air surrounding the post draw for the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby. By the time NBC Sports went to commercial for the first time, American Pharoah, Dortmund and Carpe Diem were still seeking a post while some dreadful options loomed on the board.
“This is really something,” NBC Sports horse racing analyst Randy Moss said during the broadcast. “We are all so pumped about this. It’s the deepest bunch of quality three-year-olds I can remember in a long time.”
And some of the better horses got some lousy post positions. It wasn’t enough that these 20 three-year-olds made it this far, luck—or the lack thereof—put some of them far outside or way down inside.
“You can go eight or nine deep with horses with similar running styles,” Jerry Bailey said on the NBC Sports broadcast. “So many of the trainers we’ve talked to want to be laying third or fourth pressing the pace and that can get very crowded. That’s where post positions come in.”
So let’s see where they slotted and how they’ll do come post time.
Post 1: Ocho Ocho Ocho
1 of 20Morning-Line Odds: 50-1
Post Position Win Percentage: 9.4
Prediction: 19th
Party foul. The dreaded one hole was the last of the all called and Ocho Ocho Ocho is thinking Oucho Oucho Oucho. Post 1 is every trainer’s nightmare, and it came true for trainer Jim Cassidy.
“It is what it is. It’s a tough spot but what are you going to do?” he said. “My plan, to be honest with you, is still to take hold and sit in the second flight. I’ve got to think Carpe Diem and a couple of those others are going to go but I don’t want to go with them, or sit behind. That’s what I’m going to talk to Elvis [Trujillo] about.”
That’s going to be tough. If Trujillo can grab hold of the reins and let Carpe Diem and Materiality shoot out, then Ocho Ocho Ocho could get a decent trip. He’s going to have to thread the needle between those first- and third-flight horses.
2. Carpe Diem
2 of 20
Morning-Line Odds: 8-1
Post Position Win Percentage: 8.2
Prediction: Fifth
Post 2, oddly enough, has one of the higher winning percentages, but nobody has won from there since Affirmed in 1978. The problem is the oncoming traffic. This is like the former merge on the New Jersey Turnpike when the Cars Only lane and the Cars, Trucks and Buses lane come together.
All the horses pinch inward, and just like that, trainer Todd Pletcher’s Leonardo to the rest of his Ninja Turtles is in a lot of trouble.
“We’ll need to get away cleanly and establish some position early, which you kind of need to do from any post,” Pletcher said during the NBC Sports broadcast. “It’s a little further inside than [what’s] ideal. Oftentimes, you get a good trip from a bad post.”
Materiality, Carpe Diem’s stablemate, should hustle from the gate in Post 3. That’ll buy Carpe Diem some time to settle in a few lengths behind the leaders.
He’ll run well, but the post does him no favors.
Post 3: Materiality
3 of 20Morning-Line Odds: 12-1
Post Position Win Percentage: 5.9
Prediction: 20th
Listen, this horse is very talented, but experience—or a lack thereof—is going to break this horse in this race. Not since Apollo in 1882, you know, when the country was five years removed from Reconstruction, has a horse won the Kentucky Derby without having run as a two-year-old.
The Derby will only be his fourth career race, and he draws Post 3 beside his much more seasoned stablemate Carpe Diem.
“Materiality is a good gate horse, too, so if he gets out he ought to be fine,” trainer Todd Pletcher said.
It probably would have been better for this horse to run in another prep and then go to the Preakness, but you only get one shot at the Derby so the allure is hard to pass.
With this being his fourth race, the worry is that it will break his spirit. He’s never had dirt in his face, and unless he shoots to the lead like he just saw a rattlesnake, he’s going to take a lot early. Then he'll get pounded by the 3/8ths pole.
“The biggest loser for Pletcher is Materiality,” Jerry Bailey said on the NBC Sports broadcast. “He’s a speed horse, untested in terms of experience, dirt in his face, he’s got to go from the three hole which makes the pass faster.”
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Post 4: Tencendur
4 of 20
Morning-Line Odds: 30-1
Post Position Win Percentage: 5.9
Prediction: 16th
Tencendur, trainer George Weaver’s first Derby runner, is doing Post 4 no favors in the win-percentage column. This New York-bred is in way over his head here.
He hasn’t won a race since his maiden effort over the Aqueduct inner track. For you novices, that’s where hope goes to die.
“I would have preferred to be outside further,” Weaver said of the post. “The further you are inside the more subject you may be to some bottlenecking going into the first turn. It's very hard to predict everything that's going to happen after that gate opens. It's an OK post. We'll deal with it."
He has a stalking running style and nearly won the Wood Memorial by doing just that. There are so many horses with a similar stalking style that he will, like Weaver said, get bottlenecked.
Post 5: Danzig Moon
5 of 20
Morning-Line Odds: 30-1
Post Position Win Percentage: 10.6
Prediction: 13th
Hot post position. The 2014 Derby winner broke from this very spot.
Danzig Moon also benefits from a pretty solid dosage, which is a number some folks use to measure how much endurance is “in the blood.” His is 3.44, which is fairly high.
He finished strong in the Blue Grass to take second behind Carpe Diem.
“Post position five isn’t the middle but with this post position we can sit in the back of the pack and come from behind,” trainer Mark Casse said. “We’re not unhappy with the post.”
Post 5, Casse just isn’t that into you.
Post 6: Mubtaahij
6 of 20Morning-Line Odds: 20-1
Post Position Win Percentage: 2.4
Prediction: Third
Mubtaahij is a wild card here, and he draws the center of the field with no big speed horses to either side of him. It should allow him to clear Danzig Moon and El Kabeir.
El Kabeir, with Calvin Borel aboard, will check at the break and shoot for the fence. Mubtaahij just needs a clear shot turning for home because his turn of foot is lethal.
“I suppose we’ve got to be happy with that,” trainer Mike de Kock said. “One isn’t a good one, 20 isn’t a good one. I said we’d be happy with seven or eight and we drew six so we’ve got to be happy.”
He didn’t beat a field of this class in the UAE Derby, but he showed the ability, and he did it with ease. There should be enough to overcome a mediocre post draw.
Post 7: El Kabeir
7 of 20
Morning-Line Odds: 30-1
Post Position Win Percentage: 7.1
Prediction: Sixth
El Kabeir has a few good things on his side. Post 7 is solid, and his jockey, Borel, a winner of three Kentucky Derbys, gets the mount.
There’s another added measure of significance: Borel won his first Derby breaking from Post 7 aboard Street Sense in 2007. Street Sense was also the favorite, so there’s that to consider. El Kabeir will be between 20- and 30-1. People will see Borel and probably over-bet him.
John Terranova, a first-time Derby trainer, said, “I think we drew great. We got speed on the inside of us. We’ve got speed outside of us. I’m actually glad about the post because we’d be in a position not to lose ground hopefully on the first turn or get pushed out. We’ll sit back and see how the race unfolds from there.”
That’s how Borel goes about his business. If you focus your attention on Post 7 when the gate opens, you’ll see Borel tug the reins right to the fence where he’ll hope everyone forgets his rail-skimming reputation.
Post 8: Dortmund
8 of 20Morning-Line Odds: 3-1
Post Position Win Percentage: 9.5
Prediction: Second
Dortmund tries to be the first undefeated Kentucky Derby winner since Big Brown in 2008. Dortmund’s sire? Big Brown.
The second choice on the morning line gets a dream post so long as he breaks well. When he drew the No. 8 post, the No. 1 was still available, the one that gives trainers nightmares.
“The dreaded one hole,” trainer Bob Baffert said during the NBC broadcast. “It’s not a good feeling. When he drew the eight, I’m happy with that. He’s a good gate horse. He breaks well. He’s going to be forwardly placed but there’s a lot of horses with similar running styles. We’re just going to have to shake it out.”
With Materiality and Tencendur jammed on the inside, along with Carpe Diem, there promises to be a lot of speed. He's also got to contend with Bolo and Firing Line to the right.
Will Dortmund be the class of the speed? There’s a good chance he’ll be second heading into that second turn because Materiality is going to have to gun for it.
Post 9: Bolo
9 of 20
Morning-Line Odds: 30-1
Post Position Win Percentage: 4.9
Prediction: 17th
Bolo is another one of those horses who wants to try and stalk the lead or be near the front. The problem is the traffic on the front end. Somebody will have to hang back or get hung out way wide.
Bolo drew just outside of Dortmund, the likely pace in the race, and that could spell a wide trip early in the race.
“I like it,” trainer Carla Grimes said. “Not too far inside, not too far out. We get options this way.”
Firing Line, the emphatic winner of the Sunland Derby, sits directly to the right, so it could be a six-wide stampede for the lead.
Post 10: Firing Line
10 of 20Morning-Line Odds: 12-1
Post Position Win Percentage: 11.5
Prediction: Ninth
This is a prolific winning post for the Derby with a speedster breaking from it. Perhaps he should be higher especially when you consider that he’ll be loading last.
When the horses go to the gate, they enter two at a time: one and 11, two and 12, etc, all the way to 10 and 20. Going in late means the horse won’t be as flat-footed as the one and 11 horses who must stand there and wait.
“I’m very happy with the draw,” trainer Simon Callaghan said. “I believe we’re last to load, which is an advantage. And with the No. 10, you’ve got options.”
He’s got the zip to go straight to the lead if he wants it. That will be up to his Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens. With Stanford to his right, he could get caught up in a nasty speed duel, so Stevens has to make a quick decision as soon as they’re all in line.
Post 11: Stanford
11 of 20Morning-Line Odds: 30-1
Post Position Win Percentage: 2.7
Prediction: 18th
Stanford set the pace in the Louisiana Derby, and he may not have much of a choice here except to shoot for the lead. With Firing Line and Dortmund to his left, he runs the risk of getting hung out wide.
Being in the middle of the field gives the jockey more choices, but the drawback for Stanford is how long he’ll be sitting in the gate. Loading two at a time, Posts 1 and 11 go first. He could be standing in the gate for one to two minutes simply waiting.
Stanford isn’t Pletcher’s best shot at winning a Derby, but few would have thought Super Saver in 2010 was his best shot and Borel brought him home.
''It's a race I would love to win every year, but it doesn't encompass our whole year,'' Pletcher said in an Associated Press story (h/t FoxSports.com). ''If you'd have said that at the age of 47 I'd have won a Kentucky Derby I would've told you a long time ago that I wouldn't think that that could happen.''
Post 12: International Star
12 of 20Morning-Line Odds: 20-1
Post Position Win Percentage: 4.3
Prediction: Eighth
This little horse is all guts. Watch the video above and you’ll see how fearless this son of Fusaichi Pegasus is.
Post 12 is nice for this closer since he has the speed of Stanford to his left and another forwardly placed horse in Itsaknockout to his right.
“It was pretty straightforward,” trainer Mike Maker said. “I’m glad we didn’t have the one but that’s about all. I don’t think we’ll be forwardly placed so [the horses around us] are really not an issue.”
A year ago, Maker saddled Vicar’s In Trouble in Post 1 for the same owner. The horse had no chance. Now, with this gutsy colt sitting right in the middle of the field, he’ll get the best possible chance late in the race.
Post 13: Itsaknockout
13 of 20
Morning-Line Odds: 30-1
Post Position Win Percentage: 5.9
Prediction: 15th
Yet another horse in the Pletcher Industrial Complex (PIC).
Itsaknockout drew well for the Toddster, but there’s nothing that screams he’s the one.
His best effort in terms of a speed figure came back in his optional claimer before he entered stakes company. After that he’s been sliding down. Will he spike for the Derby? He’s been trending too far down for far too long at this point to be considered a strong win candidate.
His sire won the Belmont Stakes, so when this colt loses the Derby, odds are the PIC will wheel this guy back in the Belmont.
Post 14: Keen Ice
14 of 20
Morning-Line Odds: 50-1
Post Position Win Percentage: 3.3
Prediction: Fourth
Here’s a handicapping tip: If Dale Romans saddles a horse in this race he means business.
Keen Ice is a late runner and benefits from a great post. Post 14 sits right on the end before the attachment of auxiliary gate. That affords him extra room to his right where Frosted starts.
"It's one of the best spots of all of them,” Romans said. “It might have been what I would have picked if I could.''
Keen Ice is the son of 2007 and 2008 Horse of the Year Curlin. Curin finished third in the Derby, won the Preakness and finished second in the Belmont Stakes by a nose.
There will be a ton of speed for Keen Ice to close into. If he can avoid traffic down the lane, he’ll give himself a chance at rounding at the superfecta.
Post 15: Frosted
15 of 20Morning-Line Odds: 15-1
Post Position Win Percentage: 7.5
Prediction: 10th
The Wood Memorial winner got lucky with the extra space. Post 15 is the first stall of the auxiliary gate so he’ll clear Keen Ice in Post 14 super easy. War Story, a closer to Frosted’s right, will also fall out and lay back.
“We’re very happy with it,” trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said. “We’re the first one in the auxiliary gate, so we have a little room at the break. There’s plenty of speed outside us; there’s plenty of speed inside us. The one hole is just the one that you feared. Other than that, we’re fine and we like the post.”
This gives the jockey some options. Frosted will likely sit in the top of the third flight of horses four lengths off the fence. He threw down a big effort in the Wood and hasn’t had a published work over the Churchill Downs surface.
Frosted is one of the more versatile horses in the field. When he won the Wood he was 3 1/2 lengths back at first call. When he finished fourth to Upstart in the Fountain of Youth he was right up on the pace.
He’ll be closer to the middle of the pack and doesn’t need nor want the lead.
Post 16: War Story
16 of 20
Morning-Line Odds: 50-1
Post Position Win Percentage: 9.3
Prediction: 14th
War Story is just a cut below half the field here. Unless he’s a late developer, he may be a nice Grade 2 or Grade 3 horse.
To his credit, he always manages to hit the board never finishing worse than third from a pretty cushy post.
“I was a little ambivalent but my daughter texted me and said that 16 has had more success than any other post so I’m excited about that,” trainer Tom Amoss said. “I’m not worried about the post at all.”
Mr. Amoss, your daughter lied.
Post 16 has four wins and is fourth in win percentage Posts 1, 5 and 10.
Grounded.
Post 17: Mr. Z
17 of 20
Morning-Line Odds: 50-1
Post Position Win Percentage: 0
Prediction: 12th
It came down to two horses awaiting two posts during the live post draw on NBC Sports—Mr. Z and Ocho Ocho Ocho—for who would star in the Kentucky Derby horror/action film Post 1: Age of Ultron.
When the No. 17 pill came out and Mr. Z was assigned to it, trainer D. Wayne Lukas pumped his fist like he won his fifth career Derby.
Psst…Post 17 is the only post without a Derby winner.
“I love it. Great post,” Lukas said. “Just being out there, not being in the gate very long, being able to just pop in there and leave. That's a good spot, great spot.''
Mr. Z is probably the most fatigued out of all the horses. He ran in the Louisiana Derby on March 28 and finished a dismal ninth. Still needing points to get into the Derby, Lukas wheeled Mr. Z back in the Arkansas Derby two weeks later on April 11 where he finished third and squeaked in.
Now, three weeks later, this horse will have run three races in seven weeks. Materiality has run three races in his life.
Twelve seems like a gift here for the son of Malibu Moon.
Post 18: American Pharoah
18 of 20Morning-Line Odds: 5-2
Post Position Win Percentage: 3.6
Prediction: First
It’s not ideal, but it’s not really that bad for morning-line favorite.
The Arkansas Derby winner drew to the far outside and it should allow him and his jockey, Victor Espinoza, to evaluate all the speed to the left.
Jerry Bailey said during the NBC Sports broadcast:
"I would ride him exactly like I did in the Arkansas Derby. I think the only difference is when he looks inside there won’t be one horse in front him, but maybe three: Materiality, Dortmund, even Stanford. That’s fine because he’ll be three or four lengths when they go by the stands the first time.
"
He’s one of the top three most athletic horses with one of the best makeups we’ve seen in a Derby contender. American Pharoah threw down the hammer in a five-furlong workout earlier this week, proving that he’s got a handle over the surface.
Trainer Bob Baffert said during the NBC Sports broadcast:
"I like the outside. It doesn’t really bother me. I didn’t want to be stuck down on the inside then it forces your hand. He’s a fast horse. In this race, with that many horses, you need to break well anyway. If you don’t break well, no matter what hole, you’re not going to race well. As long as he breaks well, Victor—he’s going to be aggressive with him anyway—he’s going to be in a good spot.
"
Baffert said it: without a good break it’s moot. The Pharoah is athletic enough to overcome the far outside posts and should be quick enough not to be hung out too far heading into the clubhouse turn.
That's a Baffert Derby exacta.
Post 19: Upstart
19 of 20
Morning-Line Odds: 15-1
Post Position Win Percentage: 4.2
Prediction: 11th
Trainer Rick Violette came to the Derby last year with a gritty colt named Samraat. He finished sixth and was just a war horse, fun to watch.
Upstart has that kind of grit, but he gets hung near Lexington with this post draw.
“The way I look at it is: my job the next three days is to convince Jose Ortiz it’s the best spot in the gate,” Violette said. “My job the next three days is to convince Jose Ortiz that it’s the exact post position we wanted.”
Which is another way of saying how incensed he was at his rotten luck.
Upstart hasn’t finished worse than second in 2015, and he’ll be all out to hit the board from Post 19. The good news is I’ll Have Another won this race in 2012 from Post 19—the only horse to do so.
Post 20: Far Right
20 of 20
Morning-Line Odds: 30-1
Post Position Win Percentage: 7.1
Prediction: Seventh
Far Right breaks from the…far right.
He retains the services of jockey Mike Smith, but that Post 20 is no fun at all. The only horse to win from Post 20 was Big Brown, and Far Right is far from Big Brown.
But trainer Ron Moquett was unfazed by the post draw because his horse is a closer, and he’s going to let Upstart and American Pharoah get up the track while Smith eases Far Right to the left.
“For us, it is actually OK because our running style won’t be affected,” said Moquett. “We’ll let everybody do that voodoo that they do and we’re just going to sit behind and watch them and come get them later.”
After seeing he was going to lose the Arkansas Derby, Smith eased off Far Right’s throttle. This led Moquett to say in Jonathan Lintner’s Courier-Journal story, “Mike Smith, right in front of my clients, he said he saw how the race was shaping up and knew this is a mile and an eighth with no speed. So he said we weren't going to win that day's battle but saved some horse for the war."
The war is upon us, and we’ll see just how much horse Smith left in the tank.
Quotes, unless otherwise noted, came from KentuckyDerby.com releases. Stats for each post position also come from this KentuckyDerby.com link. And, of course, statistics on post position date back to 1930.
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