NFL Draft 2015: Latest Mock Draft and Highlighting Riskiest Mid-1st-Round Picks

Every pick in the NFL draft is risky by definition, but those mid-first-round picks tend to give teams the most pause.

More often than not, teams in the middle of the first round have no luxury like their counterparts at the top or bottom of the order. Those teams at the top have the luxury of the best player available because they are prone to being in the middle of a rebuild. Those teams at the bottom can follow suit, for a playoff roster is already strong.

The teams in the middle must strike a delicate balance and usually have more than one serious need. They can scoop up a falling prospect who comes with risks, or reach for a guy who may not come off the board for another 10 picks.

Prospects themselves make the situation all the more precarious, so let's take a look at some perceived mid-round picks after a look at an updated mock based on team need and value.

2015 NFL Mock Draft

Pick	Team	Selection
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Dante Fowler Jr., DE, Florida
4	Oakland Raiders	Leonard Williams, DL, USC
5	Washington Redskins	Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
6	New York Jets	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
7	Chicago Bears	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
8	Atlanta Falcons	Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri
9	New York Giants	La'el Collins, OL, LSU
10	St. Louis Rams	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
11	Minnesota Vikings	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
12	Cleveland Browns	Alvin Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky
13	New Orleans Saints	Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska
14	Miami Dolphins	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
15	San Francisco 49ers	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
16	Houston Texans	Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma
17	San Diego Chargers	A.J. Cann, OG, South Carolina
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
19	Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo)	Arik Armstead, DE/OLB, Oregon
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Landon Collins, SS, Alabama
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Owamagbe Odighizuwa, OLB, UCLA
23	Detroit Lions	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
24	Arizona Cardinals	Eli Harold, OLB, Virginia
25	Carolina Panthers	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
26	Baltimore Ravens	Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
27	Dallas Cowboys	Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
28	Denver Broncos	Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota
29	Indianapolis Colts	Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF
30	Green Bay Packers	Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
31	New Orleans Saints (via Seattle)	Mario Edwards Jr., DE, Florida State
32	New England Patriots	Byron Jones, CB, UConn

Riskiest Mid-1st-Round Picks

Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska

By now, folks know the story of Nebraska defensive end Randy Gregory. 

At one point, most considered Gregory a top-five selection before a disaster of an NFL Scouting Combine, where he measured at 6'5" and 235 pounds and ran slower than expected.

NFL.com's Lance Zierlein puts it best when summing up Gregory's stock:

"

A 3-4 outside linebacker with the length, toughness and closing burst to immediately help a run defense. Gregory could stand to add more weight to his frame and needs plenty of technique work and a patient coach for his pass-rush skill to match his traits. High-ceiling, low-floor prospect.

"

Problems persist off the field as well thanks to a failed drug test in Indianapolis.

This won't stop teams from doing their due diligence on Gregory, though. New Orleans Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan has an interest, as Nick Underhill of The New Orleans Advocate points out:

"

FWIW, and as expected, I'm told Randy Gregory spent a good amount of time with Rob Ryan yesterday during his visit. Discussion went well.

— Nick Underhill (@nick_underhill) April 15, 2015"

Gregory figures to fall in such a range on draft day. The risk, of course, is his iffy off-field decisions and a smaller frame, which needs plenty of coaching to succeed at the next level.

Potential wins out more often than not in these cases, but the risk is quite clear.

Alvin Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky

It's hard for a prospect such as Kentucky's Alvin Dupree to gain ground and hold it on the likes of Dante Fowler Jr., Vic Beasley and Shane Ray.

Dupree dominated at Kentucky, a basketball-first school in the SEC. As an NFC East regional scout tells Zierlein, his skill set seems limited at the next level:

"He's a little slow to diagnose, which causes him to get a late start on plays. I would ask him to drop into space in zone dog looks and that's about it. To me, he's a pure see 'em, get 'em 3-4 rush end."

David Stephenson/Associated Press

Still, the raw upside is there. In Indianapolis, Dupree weighed in at 6'4" and 269 pounds before running a 4.56 40-yard dash, and posting a 42-inch vertical and 138-inch broad jump.

Elite athleticism is just one facet of the story for a pass-rusher at the next level, though. Dupree has it in droves, but up-and-down tape at times with the Wildcats and an overall skill set in need of refinement seem to have him in the mid-round range.

It's a productivity versus upside debate with Dupree and he needs to land in the right situation to succeed. Time and again, though, NFL teams in need of talent are unwilling to skip on a prospect just because he doesn't fit the scheme.

Dupree's mid-round fate and future success intertwines with his ability to rise above scheme and roles.

Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

It seems every year at least one potential first-round wideout has everything an NFL team wants. 

Except an ability to catch the ball at a consistent clip.

It always winds up with different results, too. Last year Kelvin Benjamin was the guy. He's a success story so far after dropping to No. 28, though, catching 73 passes for 1,008 yards and nine scores as a rookie.

This year it's UCF's Breshad Perriman. He hit the combine at 6'2" and 212 pounds and then ran a 4.26 40-yard dash at his pro day, at least according to his agent Drew Rosenhaus.

While Perriman touts great size and can take the top off defenses with his speed, which is quite the rare combo, his frequent dropped passes on tape are a major red flag. There are reasons experts such as Bleacher Report's Matt Miller would rather take a gamble on someone such as Dorial Green-Beckham (who is a risky mid-round prospect in his own right):

Just how risky and polarizing is Perriman? ESPN's Mel Kiper swings way in the other direction, listing the UCF product at No. 9 on his big board, even ahead of Louisville's DeVante Parker.

Perriman is one of the biggest gambles with mid-round value in recent memory. He seems capable of exploding in the same way Benjamin did a year ago, but he could go the route of a Stephen Hill or many others, too.

Perhaps his name should sit next to the definition of "risk" in this year's NFL dictionary. 

Stats courtesy of NFL.com and accurate as of April 19. All advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus.