NFL Mock Draft 2015: Predictions for Top Prospects Who Will Get Overdrafted

This calm before the storm of the 2015 NFL draft is often when the most misleading information comes out.  Teams have likely finalized their draft boards by now, but they will often try to manipulate the boards in their favor by leaking rumors pumping up or cutting down certain prospects.

Nevertheless, some teams will buy into the smoke and adhere to their board, overdrafting prospects rather than risk losing out on a first-round target.  This doesn't necessarily mean these prospects are doomed to fail, but given that their games are probably more based on upside rather than pro readiness, the weight of expectations is more likely to harm the perception surrounding these players.

Sifting through some recent predraft rumblings, it's becoming increasingly clear which potential first-round prospects could end up with the "overdrafted" label.  Taking a look at one mock draft, let's highlight a few high-upside projects who might struggle to immediately fulfill the hype.

Pick	Team	Player
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Leonard Williams, DT, USC
4	Oakland Raiders	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
5	Washington	Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida
6	New York Jets	Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
7	Chicago Bears	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
8	Atlanta Falcons	Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska
9	New York Giants	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
10	St. Louis Rams	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
11	Minnesota Vikings	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
12	Cleveland Browns	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
13	New Orleans Saints	Shane Ray, OLB, Missouri
14	Miami Dolphins	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
15	San Francisco 49ers	Bud Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky
16	Houston Texans	Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF
17	San Diego Chargers	Arik Armstead, DT, Oregon
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Cameron Erving, C, Florida State
19	Cleveland Browns (from Buffalo)	Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Landon Collins, S, Alabama
21	Cincinnati Bengals	La'el Collins, OT, LSU
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
23	Detroit Lions	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
24	Arizona Cardinals	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
25	Carolina Panthers	D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida
26	Baltimore Ravens	Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri
27	Dallas Cowboys	Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
28	Denver Broncos	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
29	Indianapolis Colts	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
30	Green Bay Packers	Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
31	New Orleans Saints (from Seattle)	Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
32	New England Patriots	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State

Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF

John Raoux/Associated Press

The success of big, raw collegiate receivers who can challenge the deep half has vaulted Perriman's name into likely Day 1 draft status.  But while the likes of Alshon Jeffery and Josh Gordon may provide an exciting glimpse into Perriman's upside, the reality is that the Central Florida product has a long ways to go before becoming a viable top-two receiver.

As listed on NFL.com, Perriman's jaw-dropping 4.24-second 40-yard dash time at his pro day highlights his appeal.  Having compiled a 19.5 average-yards-per-catch rate in college, Perriman is an outstanding deep threat with the ability to stress safeties right away.  And yet, as SI.com's Doug Farrar observes, Perriman's game doesn't always match up to his track speed:

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High-waisted player who gets a bit sluggish in his breaks at times—is not a sudden mover except in a straight line. May not have the pure burst and acceleration needed to be a top-class receiver...

Perriman made his biggest splash in the court of public opinion when he ran a sub-4.3 40 at his pro day, but as they say, it's important to go back to the tape—and he doesn't always play to that speed.

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Indeed, Farrar is not alone in his reservations about Perriman, who has exhibited issues with the nuances of the position, such as acceleration out of cuts and body positioning:

The 6'2", 212-pound Perriman possesses a rare height-weight-speed combo that could certainly justify him as a top-15 pick if developed correctly.  But if a team expects him to contribute in Week 1, much like the first-round receivers did last season, it might be disappointed.

Shane Ray, OLB, Missouri

Draftniks have established a quartet of edge-rushers at the head of the class, with Ray joining Dante Fowler, Randy Gregory and Vic Beasley as potential top-10 to top-15 picks.  While all four have enough holes that prevent any from being a surefire future All-Pro, Ray's lack of elite agility could prevent him from developing the secondary moves necessary to succeed at the next level:

For the most part, Ray won with his quick get-off at the snap, typically beating slower and smaller collegiate offensive tackles around the corner.  No one can argue with his impressive production at Missouri, as Ray compiled a whopping 14.5 sacks and 22.5 tackles for loss in 2014, ranking fifth and third in the FBS, respectively.

But after a foot injury prevented him from working out at the NFL Scouting Combine, Ray didn't quiet concerns about stiffness at his pro day.  According to NFL Draft Scout's Rob Rang, one anonymous scout believes that Ray could be falling behind the other elite edge defenders:

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The tape proves that he's a legitimate pass rusher. But, he has narrow hips and thin legs so he's likely to struggle to add much weight and retain the quickness that he used so effectively off the edge. I don't know that he's a defensive end at our level. He looked stiff during the linebacker drills too. I'm not saying that he's not a first round pick, but he wasn't as impressive on the hoof as Beasley and isn't as polished as Fowler so I have a hard time seeing him go earlier than either of them.

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Again, Ray's explosiveness is legitimate, and it certainly places a floor on his career potential.  The ex-Tiger is unlikely to turn into a total bust due to his power and indefatigable motor.  Nevertheless, if we're setting the expectation as consistent double-digit sack seasons, Ray's lack of length and fluidity might prevent him from matching those lofty standards.

Bud Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky

Athleticism is the siren song of draft season, and few prospects stand to benefit more than Kentucky's Alvin "Bud" Dupree. NFL Media's Albert Breer suggested that Dupree's stock could rise into the top 10, placing him right alongside the aforementioned edge-rushing quartet.

However, that doesn't really make much sense when comparing Dupree's 2014 collegiate production to Gregory, Ray, Beasley and Fowler.  Though he's had a consistent career as a four-year playmaker, Dupree's production has lagged behind everyone besides Gregory's:

Player	Sacks	Tackles for Loss
Bud Dupree, Kentucky	7.5	12.5
Shane Ray, Missouri	14.5	22.5
Vic Beasley, Clemson	12.0	21.5
Dante Fowler, Florida	8.5	15.0
Randy Gregory, Nebraska	7.0	8.5

Those numbers certainly aren't the be-all, end-all.  The ex-Wildcat is a bit of a different animal in that he possesses experience dropping into coverage while also possessing the body type that suggests he could bulk up and become a 7-technique defensive end for a 4-3 system.

Still, as SBNation's Stephen White opines, Dupree was more of a "flash" player on tape than someone who consistently utilized his physical gifts to wreak havoc:

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When Dupree was allowed to rush on his own I definitely saw some good things at times. It's the "at times" part that worries me, however. There is a saying that "when you know better, you do better," and I couldn't help but think of that saying when I was watching Dupree's film. ...

I get it. If it works out Dupree has been blessed with the kind of physical tools that could elevate him to Pro Bowl or All-Pro status with just a little bit of polish on his technique. At the same time, I do get this kind of "buyer beware" vibe while watching him. Not because of his effort, which was actually excellent nearly all the time. In fact, one of the most impressive things about Dupree was his hustle running to the ball. He reminded me of Anthony Barr from last year in that regard.

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Dupree is arguably the most gifted athlete in this draft class, at least based on adjusted combine numbers, calculated by FootballPerspective.com's Chase Stuart.  He's certainly someone who warrants a first-round investment, especially from a team that doesn't necessarily need him to play heavy snaps right away.  But top 10 would be rich, and if his first team mistakes his tools for a pro-ready, versatile skill set, Dupree's development could be stunted.