Biggest Takeaways from the First 2 Weeks of the MLB Season
My, how quickly the 2015 Major League Baseball season is growing up. It's already two weeks old!
However, we can't just stand idly by and watch the season mature. We need to study it and discuss what we've learned.
We just did this last week when we took a look at the 10 biggest takeaways of the first week of the season. We're going to be pursuing that same idea once again in this space. But since we know more now than we did then, the top-10 takeaways range from slightly altered to completely different.
Like we did last week, we'll go from least interesting to most interesting. Step into the box whenever you're ready.
10. Kris Bryant Has Arrived, but There's Work to Be Done
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The most highly anticipated thing to arrive this week was the new Star Wars trailer. But after that? Kris Bryant, man. Definitely Kris Bryant.
The 23-year-old super-prospect demolished minor league pitching in 2014 and then led everyone in spring training with nine homers. Baseball's service time rules all but forced the Chicago Cubs to start his season in the minors, but everyone knew he would finally make his major league debut on April 17.
Which he did! And it was exciting!
...At first, anyway. Amid so many oodles of hype, Bryant went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts at the dish in a 5-4 loss to the San Diego Padres. He played well in the field, to be fair, but the only real highlight of his day was the rather impressive "You suck!" that was hurled in his direction after his third punchout.
In all, Bryant's debut was one big reminder that even the most glorified prospects are still just prospects. Most of them still need work upon arriving in the majors. And in his case, it's clear that the strikeout problems that have dogged Bryant's minor league career aren't about to disappear overnight.
So, be patient, friends. And if it's any consolation, Bryant is probably more likely to live up to the hype than Star Wars is.
9. Baseball's Best Bullpen Belongs To...the Dodgers?
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The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen wasn't really a bullpen in 2014. It was more of a BulLOLpen.
So, of course their bullpen is now the very best in baseball, and by a pretty good margin to boot.
Provided you trust FanGraphs' FIP-based calculation of wins above replacement, that's an actual fact. Dodgers relievers have combined for a 1.2 WAR, which is 0.4 more WAR than any other bullpen. As far as these things go, that's a sizable advantage.
And it's not really misleading. Dodgers relievers have combined for an MLB-best 12.7 strikeouts per nine innings, 2.5 walks per nine innings and 48.6 ground-ball percentage and have yet to allow a single home run on the season. So though they only have a 2.53 ERA for their efforts, they've done all the important things well.
Granted, it is slightly concerning that it's a bunch of no-names who are doing this. But as I highlighted this week, some of these no-names have some real talent. And before long, they're going to be joined by Kenley Jansen. He is most definitely not a no-name, and he most definitely has talent.
So, consider yourselves warned about the Dodgers bullpen. It's gone from being the punching bag to the puncher, and it's coming for you next*.
*Probably not. But then again, maybe. Seriously, watch out.
8. Nelson Cruz Is the Only Good Thing on the Mariners
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Many scoffed when the Seattle Mariners signed Nelson Cruz to a four-year, $57 million contract. Sure, he would probably solve their cleanup hitter problems, but there was just no way a 34-year-old one-dimensional player would actually live up to a contract like that.
But Cruz has been a bright spot for the Mariners. He started off slowly, but then went on to hit home runs in five straight games. He's sitting on a 1.221 OPS and six home runs, which leads the majors.
Good for him...but I realize that I just made a mistake. That should have read that Cruz has been "the" bright spot for the Mariners.
Outside of Cruz's power surge, not much has gone right for the Mariners. They're only 3-7 in 10 games and have struggled on offense (.635 OPS), on the mound (4.85 ERA) and on defense (minus-two DRS as of the start of play Friday).
This would only be a side note if the Mariners came into the year without any expectations, but they came into the year with expectations roughly the size of Cruz's raw power. Many (including me) saw them as the American League's most balanced team and the favorite to win the American League pennant.
Instead, only the new guy seems committed to that early on.
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7. The Colorado Rockies Are Road Warriors All of a Sudden
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The Colorado Rockies were downright terrible in 2014, losing 96 games to finish ahead of only the Arizona Diamondbacks in the grand scheme of Major League Baseball. A big factor in their downfall was a 21-60 road record, which was by far the worst in MLB.
So, of course the 2015 Rockies are off to a 7-3 start that included a perfect 6-0 record on the road before they finally fell to the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium Friday night. This, indeed, is reason to be excited.
"A lot of guys are really excited right now," said hot-shot third baseman Nolan Arenado to Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. "We have been playing well lately. We know we are going to lose on the road some day, it's going to happen. But right now we are playing good baseball."
How has Colorado's success away from Coors Field happened? Largely thanks to an excellent 2.90 ERA, but that's bad news just as much as good news. That's very un-Rockies-like and is bound to regress in a major way before long.
But this doesn't mean the Rockies can't keep being competitive on the road. With their lineup at full strength, it's not surprising to see them tearing it up in park-adjusted offense on the road. Led by the seriously talented Arenado, they also have a strong defense that can play anywhere.
So, beware the Rockies. When they come to town, they won't leave without a fight.
6. The Defending Champs Can Confirm It Is Indeed an Odd Year
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As much as we like to joke about it, the San Francisco Giants' championship runs came in 2010, 2012 and 2014.
But odd years? No, no, no. The Giants don't do those. So we really shouldn't be surprised at what's happened to them early on in 2015.
It hasn't been pretty. Due to an eight-game losing streak, the Giants are just 3-9 and in last place in the NL West. Nothing has gone right for them, as they've endured subpar offense (.630 OPS) and defense (minus-four DRS at the start of play Friday), while their pitching has been a roller-coaster experience.
Surprisingly, that's mainly been Madison Bumgarner's fault. After looking like a superhuman Paul Bunyan clone last October, he now just looks human with a 5.29 ERA in his first three starts.
No, this won't last forever. You can take that from Grantland's Jonah Keri, who sees the Giants eventually getting back to watchability courtesy of improved pitching and clutch hitting.
But what's happened so far this year is a reminder that even the Giants couldn't escape World Series hangovers in 2011 and 2013. And if the early returns are any indication, their 2015 hangover might be their worst yet.
5. Mike Trout Is Back to Carrying the Angels
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Mike Trout spent the first two years of his career being pretty much the only reason to watch the Los Angeles Angels. But that changed in 2014, as the Angels finally fielded a good team around him on their way to winning 98 games and qualifying for the playoffs.
But so far in 2015, it looks like those days could be short-lived.
As per usual, Trout has been outstanding early on in 2015. He has three homers and two stolen bases and is hitting .444 with a 1.250 OPS. Those are typical Trout numbers, to be sure, but they've come courtesy of a different approach.
Thanks to what ESPN.com's Buster Olney highlighted as a more aggressive approach, Trout has dropped his strikeout percentage to 16.7 from 26.1 last year. And though that would be awesome in and of itself, adding to the awesome is how Trout hasn't had to sacrifice his walk habit. With an 11.9 walk percentage, he's getting his.
It's too bad the rest of the Angels aren't supporting him. They're just 5-5 largely because Trout is the only one who's excelled offensively so far, and the club's pitching has been mediocre with a 4.19 ERA.
This, obviously, is bad for them. But for us, things could be worse. Honestly, yours truly would much rather have a good Trout and a mediocre Angels team than a good Angels team and a mediocre Trout.
4. Alex Rodriguez Really Is the Best Reason to Watch the Yankees
7 of 10When we checked in on the Alex Rodriguez Comeback Saga last week, we noted that he looked like he might be the best reason to watch the New York Yankees. At the time, he had a .946 OPS and a homer.
Well, cancel "might be." A week later, it's obvious that A-Rod is the best reason to watch the Yankees.
His start to 2015 has gone from good to ridiculously good. Following a two-homer game against the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday night, he's now hitting .344 with a 1.214 OPS. In terms of adjusted offense, he's been laughably better than any other Yankees regular.
That right there is reason enough to tune in for a nightly dose of A-Rod, as he's the only hitter in the once-vaunted Yankees offense worthy of your attention. But then there's the whole chasing-history thing, as Rodriguez's 658 career home runs put him just two shy of Willie Mays on the all-time list.
If he has his way, A-Rod will earn a $6 million bonus when he ties Mays. If the Yankees have their way, however, he won't earn a dime of that money.
And there you were thinking you would only get drama with A-Rod this year. Turns out we're getting good hitting and drama. It's like A-Rod's good ol' days all over again.
3. The Detroit Tigers Are Still Awesome and Also Completely Different
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As they won four straight AL Central titles between 2011 and 2014, we got used to the Detroit Tigers winning with power hitting and power pitching, eschewing other valuable things like speed and defense.
Well, meet the new Tigers. They couldn't be more different from the old Tigers.
Detroit is still a dominant offensive club, as it's batting .311 with an .858 OPS and 11 home runs so far. But the Tigers are also showing off some speed with an MLB-best 13 stolen bases, and that's with only one steal so far from speedy center fielder Anthony Gose.
Even more impressive is Detroit's defense. Typically one of the league's worst defensive teams, the Tigers went into Friday's action near the top of the Defensive Runs Saved leaderboard at plus-13. Gose and slick-fielding shortstop Jose Iglesias have been major factors there, and Nick Castellanos is teasing that he's ready to put his 2014 defensive struggles behind him.
It's thanks to this defense that Detroit's pitchers have a sparkling 1.82 ERA even despite a downright subpar rate of 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Unlike in years past, Tigers pitchers can pitch to contact without having to worry about a comedy of errors breaking out in the field behind them.
What it's all added up to is an MLB-best 9-1 record. Well played, new Tigers. Well played, indeed.
2. The Pace-of-Play Rules Are Still Working...And Players Still Hate Them
9 of 10When we first checked in last week, we noted that baseball's new pace-of-play rules seemed to be working, as games were moving at a quicker pace and finishing faster.
A week later, there's good news and bad news that's...well, not actually all that bad.
The good news is that the pace-of-play rules are still working. Per Jon Morosi of Fox Sports, the average time of game is down from over three hours in 2014 to two hours and 56 minutes so far in 2015. And as of the start of play Friday, the PITCHf/x data at FanGraphs said the pace between pitches had dropped nearly a full second from where it was in 2014.
Certainly, MLB is happy about this. Here's guessing most fans are, too.
But the players? Not as much. We already knew from some initial reactions that the players generally weren't on board with the idea of speeding things up, and Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune caught up with a few who made it clear the general opinion hasn't changed.
But as Craig Calcaterra of Hardball Talk argued, this isn't about current players. This is about future players, as they're the ones who are going to cement baseball as a faster-paced game that will be more at home in modern society.
To this end, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America has more good news: Games in the minors are also speeding up. If that keeps up, soon baseball will be overrun with young players who are accustomed to moving along at a faster pace. And though baseball isn't dying, that could be what prolongs its lifespan.
1. The Offensive Environment May Not Be as Doomed as We First Thought
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One other thing about the new pace-of-play rules: When we first checked last week, it looked like they were helping to further decimate the league's offensive environment.
At the time, the league was hitting .233/.301/.365 with a 21.2 strikeout percentage. Those numbers look bad enough on their own and even worse in the context of how much of a downgrade they were from 2014's .251/.314/.386 batting line and 20.4 strikeout percentage.
But now, suddenly things aren't so bad.
Per FanGraphs, the league's batters entered Friday's action hitting .251/.319/.399 with a 19.7 strikeout percentage over the last seven days. Largely as a result of that, the league is now hitting .242/.309/.386 with a 20.4 strikeout percentage. That's still not good, but it's not much of a drop-off from what happened in 2014.
Where things go from here is anyone's guess, but it wouldn't be overly surprising if the offensive environment continued to make a comeback. The weather is going to start warming up, after all. And despite complaints to the contrary, it's worth noting that the offensive decline that took place between 2010 and 2014 correlated with more and more time being taken in between pitches.
So maybe hitters don't need to slow things down. The new fast pace might be just what they need.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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