MLB's Top 5 Pitching Prospects at Each Minor League Level
The 2015 Minor League Baseball season kicked off last week, with games being played across all four full-season levels.
This year, each level features countless top pitching prospects, as many of the game's best young arms are either stationed in the low minors or are on the cusp of reaching the major leagues.
Earlier in the week, we looked at the five best hitting prospects at each level, highlighting guys such as Ozhaino Albies, Clint Frazier, Carlos Correa and Kris Bryant. Now, it's time to do the same with pitchers.
With that said, here are the top five pitchers from the Low-A, High-A, Double-A and Triple-A levels, respectively, at the onset of the 2015 season.
Low-A
1 of 4
1. Tyler Kolek, RHP, Miami Marlins
2015 Team/League: Greensboro Grasshoppers (South Atlantic League)
Selected with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2014 draft, Tyler Kolek is everything one looks for in a potential front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, as he’s a physical presence on the mound at 6’5”, 260 pounds with elite fastball velocity.
However, the 19-year-old right-hander didn’t dominate with his heater as he should have last summer in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League, as he posted a 4.50 ERA and 1.59 WHIP with just 18 strikeouts in 22 innings.
Kolek’s secondary arsenal will require a lot of work, as he throws an inconsistent slider that flashes plus potential, an average curveball and an undeveloped changeup. However, all three offerings are expected to improve in the coming years, as their current states mostly reflect his lack of experience and feel for pitching.
2. Grant Holmes, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
2015 Team/League: Great Lakes Loons (Midwest League)
Grant Holmes, the No. 22 overall draft pick last June, turned in a promising debut last summer between the rookie-level Arizona and Pioneer Leagues, posting 3.72 ERA and 1.08 WHIP with 58 strikeouts in 48.1.
At 6’1”, 215 pounds, Holmes has a thick, durable build with broad shoulders and a strong lower half. The 19-year-old right-hander features two plus pitches in a 93 to 96 mph fastball and a wipeout curveball with sharp break in the low- to mid-80s. He also has an underrated changeup, a pitch that he’ll begin to develop thoroughly in 2015.
Unfortunately, Holmes is in the same category as Kolek as a young, big-bodied, hard-thrower, meaning he may need considerable time to develop in the minor leagues.
3. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
2015 Team/League: Burlington Bees (Midwest League)
The No. 15 overall pick in last year’s draft, Newcomb logged only 14.2 innings last summer after holding out until the mid-July signing deadline. However, he still managed to conclude his pro debut with a strong showing at Low-A Burlington, highlighted by a 10-strikeout, two-hit performance over four shutout innings in his final start of the regular season.
Flash forward and the 6’5”, 245-pound left-hander has picked up where he left off back at Burlington, with a 1.80 ERA and 15-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio through two starts.
4. Spencer Adams, RHP, Chicago White Sox
2015 Team/League: Kannapolis Intimidators (South Atlantic League)
The White Sox’s selection of Spencer Adams was one of the biggest steals in the 2014 draft, as the crazy-athletic, prep right-hander fell into their lap in the second round (No. 44 overall).
He didn’t waste any time beginning his professional career, signing with the White Sox a few days after he was drafted. Adams went on to dominate Arizona League hitters with a 3.67 ERA and 59-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 41.2 innings.
Adams, a 6’3” right-hander, features a four-pitch mix that’s highlighted by a low- to mid-90s fastball and swing-and-miss slider, and his curveball and changeup are both relatively advanced as well. The White Sox have no need to rush him up the ladder, but Adams’ arsenal and strong command profile certainly give him the potential to move quickly.
5. Brent Honeywell, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
2015 Team/League: Bowling Green Hot Rods (Midwest League)
Little was known about Honeywell prior to his selection by the Rays in the second round of last year’s draft. However, the 20-year-old right-hander quickly proved to be worth the gamble, as he went on to post a 1.07 ERA with 40 strikeouts over 33.2 innings in the rookie-level Appalachian League.
A 6’2”, 180-pound right-hander, Honeywell’s fastball registers in the 90 to 95 mph range with late life, in turn setting up his mid-70s curveball and above-average changeup in the low 80s. His best secondary offering is a plus screwball. Yes, you read that right. It's thrown in the low to mid-70s with outstanding fading action to his arm side.
High-A
2 of 4
1. Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
2015 Team/League: Palm Beach Cardinals (Florida State League)
Reyes was all over the place last year during the first half of his full-season debut, but he eventually settled in and flashed his enormous upside over his final 10 starts, posting a 2.48 ERA with 73 strikeouts and 24 walks in 54.1 innings.
Reyes finished the year ranked fifth in the Midwest League with 137 strikeouts. The right-hander was difficult to barrel (.207 BAA) and consistently missed bats (11.3 K/9), but his lack of control was a season-long problem and resulted in 58 walks (5.02 BB/9) in 109.1 innings.
The sky is the limit for Reyes, whose pure staff ranks among the best in the minor leagues. However, given his inconsistent full-season debut, there’s clearly a lot of work that will need to be done for the right-hander to approach his lofty ceiling.
2. Marcos Molina, RHP, New York Mets
2015 Team/League: St. Lucie Mets (Florida State League)
Molina, 20, paced the New York-Penn League last season in most categories, including ERA (1.77), WHIP (0.84), strikeouts (91) and opponents’ batting average (.170). He finished the season in dominant fashion, too, striking out 50 hitters over his final 34.2 frames.
A 6’3”, 188-pound right-hander, Molina is an impressive athlete with two plus pitches (his fastball and changeup) and an advanced feel for pitching, the combination of which should aid him this season as he jumps from Short Season to High-A.
3. Kohl Stewart, RHP, Minnesota Twins
2015 Team/League: Fort Myers Miracle (Florida State League)
Stewart had an excellent first full season at Low-A Cedar Rapids, showcasing a combination of stuff and pitching ability, despite being slowed by injuries during the second half. Specifically, the 20-year-old posted a 2.59 ERA and 62-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio but logged only 87 innings.
Stewart’s ability to command his three-pitch mix throughout the strike zone is tied to the repetition of his delivery and release point. Because he showcases a feel for putting away hitters when ahead in the count and tends to work according to his strengths, he has the potential to move up the ladder faster than expected.
4. Rob Kaminsky, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals
2015 Team/League: Palm Beach Cardinals (Florida State League)
Kaminsky had an impressive 2014 full-season debut at Low-A Peoria, pacing all Midwest League pitchers (with at least 100 innings) with a 1.88 ERA while holding opposing hitters to an overall batting line of .194/.266/.251 over 407 plate appearances.
The 20-year-old southpaw didn’t miss as many bats as expected, but his pure stuff and ability to attack hitters suggests that will come with experience. Kaminsky is the type of pitcher who can thrive in the Florida State League, so expect him to reach Double-A by season's end.
5. Lucas Sims, RHP, Atlanta Braves
2015 Team/League: Carolina Mudcats (Carolina League)
Just as he did in 2013, Sims settled in during the second half of the 2014 season and turned in a strong finish, pitching to a 3.51 ERA and 69-32 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 84.2 innings (14 starts).
Sims, 20, has the makings of an advanced three-pitch mix, with a low- to mid-90s fastball, a swing-and-miss breaking ball that has a big shape and heavy downer action and a changeup that flashes average. While his stuff and command will vary from start to start, there’s nothing that suggests Sims can’t remain a starter in the long term.
Double-A
3 of 4
1. Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
2015 Team/League: Tulsa Drillers (Texas League)
Julio Urias emerged as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball last season, as the precocious left-handed pitcher dominated older hitters in the offense-heavy California League.
After celebrating his 18th birthday on Aug. 12, Urias capped his outstanding campaign by posting a 0.44 ERA with 31 strikeouts over his final 20.1 innings (five starts). On the season, the southpaw pitched to a 2.36 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 109 strikeouts in 87.2 innings while also holding opposing hitters to a dismal .194/.292/.290 batting line.
Beginning the 2015 season in Double-A, Urias is now officially within striking distance of the major leagues. The lefty will be on a strict innings limit this year, even if he does debut with the Dodgers. But hey—crazier things have happened.
2. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
2015 Team/League: Bowie Baysox (Eastern League)
Dylan Bundy flew through the Baltimore Orioles system in 2012, his first professional season, pitching at three full-season levels before making two appearances out of the big league bullpen as a September call-up.
However, he’s yet to return to the majors after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2013. After he finished last season with six starts at High-A Frederick, Bundy, 22, is likely to spend most of the first half of 2015 in Double-A, and a midseason call-up to the major leagues is a realistic possibility.
3. Braden Shipley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
2015 Team/League: Mobile BayBears (Southern League)
Braden Shipley, the No. 15 overall pick in the 2013 draft, cruised through three levels last year in his first full pro campaign, beginning at Low-A South Bend before moving up to High-A Visalia and then Double-A Mobile. Between all three stops, the right-hander posted a 3.86 ERA and 127-42 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 126 innings (22 starts).
The 23-year-old right-hander should continue to move up the ladder in a hurry behind a mid-90s fastball, plus-plus changeup and hard curveball that projects as another plus offering at maturity. Meanwhile, Shipley’s polish and present command of all three pitches are especially impressive considering his overall lack of experience.
4. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
2015 Team/League: Altoona Curve (Eastern League)
Glasnow’s 2014 campaign at High-A Bradenton was tremendous, as he paced the Florida State League in ERA (1.74), WHIP (1.054) and opponents’ batting average (.174) while ranking second in strikeouts (157) and K/9 (11.4).
He was especially dominant during the second half of the season, with a 9-2 record, 1.65 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 109 strikeouts over 81.2 innings (14 starts). Meanwhile, he issued just 29 walks—one more than he allowed in 46.2 innings during the first half—while holding opposing hitters to a .177 average.
A 6’8” right-hander, Glasnow uses his size to create excellent downhill plane, which allows him to dominate hitters with basically two pitches: an explosive mid- to upper-90s fastball and a swing-and-miss curveball that flashes plus potential. Double-A should be a healthy challenge for the 21-year-old—a challenge that, if passed, could have him in the major leagues by the end of the season.
5. Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
2015 Team/League: Pensacola Blue Wahoos (Southern League)
Stephenson was challenged in Double-A last season, as the 22-year-old right-hander’s inconsistent command and reliance on his fastball led to an elevated walk rate (4.9 BB/9) and enabled hitters to take him deep 18 times (1.2 HR/9). However, Stephenson was still young for the level, so the fact that he held opposing hitters to a .224 batting average and fanned 140 batters in 136.2 innings was encouraging.
The 6’2”, 200-pound right-hander’s athleticism and arm strength suggest front-of-the-rotation potential, but he’ll need to improve his command and refine his changeup to remain a long-term starter. It’ll be interesting to see the adjustments Stephenson makes in his second tour of the Southern League.
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Triple-A
4 of 4
1. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets
2015 Team/League: Las Vegas 51s (Pacific Coast League)
Syndergaard’s inflated 4.60 ERA and .293 opponents’ batting average (.378 BABIP) in 2014 were products of pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, as he otherwise posted a 3.70 FIP and kept the ball in the park (0.74 HR/9). More importantly, the 22-year-old held his own against older hitters while maintaining strong strikeout (9.81 K/9) and walk (2.91 BB/9) rates.
After an up-and-down spring in big league camp, Syndergaard will bide his time in Triple-A until there’s an opening in the Mets’ starting rotation. However, after having his season debut pushed back due to a forearm issue, the right-hander’s injury status is definitely worth monitoring moving forward.
2. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Chicago White Sox
2015 Team/League: Charlotte Knights (International League)
The No. 3 overall pick in last year’s draft, Rodon reached Triple-A Charlotte in mid-August last summer less than a month after making his professional debut. The 22-year-old impressed at the minor leagues' highest level, posting a 3.00 ERA with 18 strikeouts over 12 innings (three starts), including 15 over his final two starts.
Rodon has everything one looks for in a potential front-end starter with a durable frame, three offerings with plus-or-better potential and the type of competitive mound presence that can’t be taught. His fastball command is inconsistent and his changeup needs further development, but the White Sox seem confident that their promising left-hander will make swift adjustments on the go against the game’s top hitters.
3. Steven Matz, LHP, New York Mets
2015 Team/League: Las Vegas 51s (Pacific Coast League)
Matz began his first season at the High-A level by posting a 2.21 ERA with 62 strikeouts in 69.1 innings in the Florida State League, earning a midseason promotion to Double-A Binghamton. The southpaw was even more impressive in the Eastern League, registering a 2.27 ERA with 69 strikeouts in 71.1 innings.
Matz also pitched to 1.28 ERA with 48 strikeouts and nine walks over his final 42.1 innings (seven starts), and he struck out a season-high 11 batters over 7.1 innings Sept. 12, helping Binghamton capture the Eastern League crown.
The 6’2”, 200-pound left-hander primarily relies on a low- to mid-90s fastball with heavy sink and still needs to refine his secondaries, but his performance at a pair of advanced levels this season was encouraging and has him poised to make an impact in 2015.
4. Jon Gray, RHP, Colorado Rockies
2015 Team/League: Albuquerque Isotopes (Pacific Coast League)
Jon Gray dialed back his velocity last season at Double-A in favor of smoother mechanics and better command. While some of the results weren’t spectacular, such as his 3.91 ERA, his overall feel for locating his fastball, slider and changeup was better than expected and produced a .237 opponents’ batting average and 113-41 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 124.1 innings.
The Rockies still seem to have Gray working on different things, such as his fastball command and ability to expand the zone with his secondary pitches, but he’s nonetheless poised to make a midseason debut in 2015.
5. Alex Meyer, RHP, Minnesota Twins
2015 Team/League: Rochester Red Wings (International League)
Meyer continued his ascent toward the major leagues in 2014, as he held opposing hitters to a paltry .241 batting average while posting a 10.6 K/9 rate in 130.1 Triple-A innings.
The right-hander’s impact arm strength and ability to miss bats will get him to the major leagues in 2015, where the Twins will give him every opportunity to stick in the starting rotation. Even if his mechanics and command don’t translate at the MLB level or he’s unable to stay healthy, Meyer still has enormous upside as a top-tier closer.
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