Are the Cubs or Padres the Bigger Threat to 2015 NL Hierarchy?
It's not a stretch to say that each of the three divisions in the National League had a fairly clear presumptive favorite on paper entering the 2015 season.
In the East, it's the rotation-rich Washington Nationals, even despite their slow start. The steady St. Louis Cardinals, who have made the playoffs each of the past four seasons, won the Central the past two years and look capable of making it three straight. Out West, the star-studded Los Angeles Dodgers are aiming for three consecutive crowns.
Whether other Senior Circuit clubs—or their fans—want to admit it or not, that trio makes up something of a hierarchy.
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That doesn't mean there aren't threats to that pecking order this year, though. The Miami Marlins and New York Mets could push the Nationals, while the Pittsburgh Pirates are primed to hang with the Cardinals after doing so in 2013 and 2014. And the San Francisco Giants, of course, have a pretty good claim to every other October.
But what about some of the other NL clubs that could pose a challenge in 2015?
It'll take a bit more to believe in the hot-starting Colorado Rockies (7-2) and, especially, the rebuilding Atlanta Braves (6-3), but the Chicago Cubs (5-3) and San Diego Padres (6-4) are not only playing well out of the gate, but also look ready to nip at the heels of the Nationals, Cardinals and Dodgers after making waves with headline-grabbing offseason moves.
Fittingly, these two upstart squads will face off in a three-game set at Wrigley Field starting Friday afternoon, as the Padres' James Shields and the Cubs' Jason Hammel—two free-agent signings—toe the rubber.
San Diego and Chicago have gone about their remakings in very different ways, but both teams feature a ton of talent and should be entertaining to watch all season long.
For the Cubs, it's been a slow burn, going the prospects-and-player-development route under the careful, architectural watch of president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and general manager Jed Hoyer.
But after five consecutive campaigns of losing, the rebuilding process has been sped up a bit by the massive $155 million inking of ace left-hander Jon Lester and the unexpected acquisition of savvy skipper Joe Maddon over the winter.
The addition of Lester, who has loads of postseason experience and helped the Boston Red Sox—a franchise that had its own lengthy World Series drought not long ago—get titles in 2007 and 2013, signals that this organization is ready to win, and sooner than later.
"Without a doubt," Maddon said at his introductory press conference last November, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today, "we're going to make the playoffs next year."
Speaking of ready sooner than later, the club is set to unleash top prospect Kris Bryant, who Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com reports will be called up for his MLB debut Friday, which marks the 13th day of the season, meaning Bryant won't accrue enough service time this year to reach free agency until after 2021:
Even outside of Bryant, however, Chicago possesses a bevy of young talent, particularly on the position player front. Outfielder Jorge Soler already is on the North Side, and he'll soon enough be joined by prospects like Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora, Billy McKinney and Javier Baez, if he can fix his approach and swing-and-miss problems.
The Padres, on the other hand? Well, they have been reimagined on the fly in the span of a single offseason by the nonstop maneuverings of new GM A.J. Preller, who hasn't even been around to endure the four losing seasons in a row.
Since taking over at the end of last year, Preller has added (inhale here…) outfielders Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Wil Myers, catcher Derek Norris, third baseman Will Middlebrooks, closer Craig Kimbrel and Shields (…and exhale).
Those big bats were sorely needed to make over an offense that finished 2014 with an embarrassing .226/.292/.342 aggregate line and by far the fewest runs scored in baseball.
On the mound, the Shields signing—at $75 million, it was the richest in franchise history—feels like it somehow went under the radar, but he's a consistent and durable top-of-the-rotation arm who will make a staff that already featured Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy that much better.
The swap for Kimbrel, which came to fruition on none other than Opening Day as Preller worked all the way down to the very end of the wire, brings a little more swagger and shutdown ability to the staff, too.
All of the above is positive for both franchises, but there are doubts and questions about each, too.
For the Cubs, it's simple: Can a team go from rebuilding to contending in just one season, especially when so many of the players are young, inexperienced and still needing to prove themselves in the big leagues?
For the Padres, it's a matter of whether they'll have defensive problems, particularly with that Kemp-Myers-Upton outfield, and whether a lineup that is so right-handed will produce or be exposed.
As far as which of these two teams is the bigger threat as a potential NL contender in 2015, the totally revamped, win-now Padres look like the pick at the moment. If Preller's mad-scientist tinkering clicks, especially with the offense, then the reward will be well worth it.
But the Cubs, who need to treat this year as a stepping stone back to winning as all of their young stars-in-the-making figure things out and find their way in The Show, just might be the bigger threat for 2016—and beyond.
Statistics are accurate through Thursday, April 16, and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11
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