
Offseason Mistakes Already Hurting MLB Teams in 2015
The 2015 MLB regular season has just begun, but a few offseason acquisitions are already hurting their new squads.
It may be harsh to make such a rash statement this early in the year, but we can draw some conclusions based on evidence from years prior.
Evan Gattis and Russell Martin have gotten off to dreadful starts with their new teams, raising eyebrows in both Houston and Toronto, respectively. Meanwhile, Ervin Santana's suspension has thrown the Minnesota Twins' rotation into chaos in the season's early days.
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Let's dive into these three cases and try to diagnose the key issues in each situation.
Evan Gattis
The Houston Astros sent a solid package to the Atlanta Braves for Evan Gattis, but the slugger has yet to make an impact with his new club.
Gattis burst onto the scene in 2013 with 21 home runs in 105 games. He then homered 22 more times last season in a starting role.
His power has never been questioned, and Astros fans saw a glimpse of that with a towering 421-foot home run earlier this week. But Gattis' plate discipline and strikeout numbers have always been his bugaboos—and the Houston faithful have seen much more of them so far.
Gattis is 3-for-32 with 14 strikeouts to start 2015. Of those three hits, only one has gone for extra bases, and he's only driven in one run. This isn't a new development for Gattis, as the slugger has always fanned at a high rate. Here are his career totals:
| CATEGORY | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | |
| Strikeout Percentage | 21.2 | 24.2 | 42.4 | |
| Walk Percentage | 5.5 | 5.5 | 3.0 | |
| On-Base Percentage | .291 | .317 | .121 |
Yes, the 2015 sample size is too small to make any sort of judgement on the rest of the season. But at 28, Gattis has already entered his prime. He has a track record of striking out in bunches and walking very little, all while whacking plenty of homers. But if he's not doing the latter, he provides the Astros with little to no value.
Making matters worse, Houston parted with a few talented players to acquire him, as both Mike Foltynewicz and Rio Ruiz are now two of Atlanta's top 10 prospects. Back in January, ESPN Insider Keith Law heralded Atlanta's package as a "heck of a return for a flawed player such as Gattis."
Gattis isn't always going to be as punchless as he's been to start 2015, but Houston fans should be concerned. He's likely already seen his best days, and his lack of production is already hurting the club.
Russell Martin
Russell Martin was a key factor in the renaissance of the Pittsburgh Pirates over the last two seasons. By investing $82 million in the backstop this winter, the Toronto Blue Jays proved they believe Martin can do the same for them.
Martin picked a great time to have his best season in 2014. He only hit .290 but posted a .402 OBP and 140 wRC+. Martin also hit 11 homers and drove in 67 runs.
But before last year, Martin had never posted offensive numbers that impressive. You would have to go all the way back to 2007-2008 to find a season where he posted a wRC+ over 110.
It must be said that much of Martin's value lies on the defensive side. According to ESPN, he allowed only three passed balls and threw out over 38 percent of would-be base stealers last season. He also tallied 107 extra strikes for the Pittsburgh pitching staff, according to Baseball Prospectus.

But catchers aren't given $82 million contracts for just stellar defense—especially 32-year-old catchers with a history of injuries and various ailments. Martin hasn't played in over 130 games since 2009.
As for the present, his tenure in Toronto couldn't have started any worse. Martin is 1-for-23 with three walks and 10 strikeouts. His walk rate is right on par with his career numbers, but the K's are alarming.
When Martin signed with the Blue Jays back in November, B/R's own Mike Rosenbaum discussed the significant risk on Toronto's end: "But Toronto's hefty gamble on the aging catcher for such a lengthy period of time seems likelier to result in disappointment, as it basically expects the next five years of Martin's career to resemble his 2013 and 2014 campaigns."
And it's unfair to believe he will. Martin is 32, and his offensive numbers are only going to deteriorate from here on out. The Blue Jays rolled the dice in the hopes that Martin would help them in the short term and were willing to eat a huge sum of money on the back end of his contract for that very reason.
But if Martin can't produce in the early years of his contract, that idea becomes a moot point.
Ervin Santana
I'm not going out on much of a limb here by dubbing a player slated to miss 80 games due to suspension as a "mistake." But Ervin Santana's absence from the Minnesota Twins rotation has had a huge effect on the rest of the staff.
Earlier this winter, B/R's Karl Buscheck named Santana as Minnesota's best offseason move:
"Signing Ervin Santana to a four-year, $55 million deal will definitely help the Twins in that department," Buscheck said regarding the Twins' lackluster rotation in 2014. "The starter has recorded a sub-4.00 ERA in four of the past five seasons. Plus, Santana has already succeeded in the AL Central, posting a 3.24 ERA for the Kansas City Royals back in 2013.
"
Santana was part of an effort to improve one of the league's worst rotations a season ago. Santana and a healthy Ricky Nolasco figured to combine with Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson and Tommy Milone for a much-improved starting staff.
| ERA | 30th | |||
| FIP | 23rd | |||
| K/9 | 29th | |||
| WAR | 25th |
But with Santana gone for half the season and Nolasco's arm issues, that grand vision seems like a pipe dream now. Minnesota starters have posted a 6.02 ERA and are allowing well over a home run per nine innings in 2015.

Santana would arguably be the ace of the current Minnesota rotation. The worst-case scenario is that he would provide a young team with a chance to win every fifth day. The Twins were relying on Santana to be a calming influence for the rotation, which makes his suspension even tougher on the club.
Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise mentioned.






