Elite College Production Proves TCU LB Paul Dawson Is More Than Worth the Risk
Measurably slow, slightly undersized and questionable character-wise would typically represent a three-strikes-and-you're-out scenario for a college linebacker entering the NFL draft.
TCU's Paul Dawson has a trump card.
While his red flags are real, so is Dawson's college production—which can finally be realized in all its glory thanks to advanced analytics. Provided by Pro Football Focus, the numbers from last season strongly suggest that Dawson is well worth the risk for teams in need of a linebacker in the 2015 NFL draft.
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The growing football site—which has quickly become a major player among NFL teams, media and fans—is currently expanding into the college realm. PFF's play-by-play look at every player during every game is first shedding a light on the 2015 draft, using its signature statistics to help sort through the uncertainty of scouting and rating players based on college tape.
Dawson shines in two major statistical areas. In fact, he was so consistently dominant in 2014 that teams will have no choice but to overlook some of the other areas of concern.
Yes, Dawson ran the 40-yard dash in 4.93 seconds and posted only a 28-inch vertical at the NFL Scouting Combine. Yes, Dawson is only 235 pounds, making him a difficult fit for some teams and schemes. And yes, there are whispers all over the draft community about his character and work ethic. Add up the three red flags, and it's easy to understand why he's not mentioned as one of the draft's best defensive players.
But throw on the tape and tally his numbers, as PFF has done in great detail, and the danger in those concerns start to dissipate.
| 2014 | 319 | 74 | 23.2 | |
| 2014 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 21.6 |
According to PFF's signature stats, Dawson led all draft-eligible linebackers in run stops with 74 in 2014. A run stop is considered a tackle against the run that constitutes an offensive failure. It is PFF's way of providing context—in the form of verifiable impact—for the otherwise elementary tackle statistic. While Dawson had 14 more than the next best linebacker, the volume of stops wasn't the only impressive part of the number.
His 23.3 run-stop percentage also led all linebackers. And "led" might actually be the wrong word usage here; Dawson obliterated his competition at the position. The next-best linebacker in run-stop percentage was Michigan's Jake Ryan, who posted a 14.4 mark. Dawson was almost 9 percentage points better.
Essentially, Dawson provided an impact-delivering tackle on roughly one of every four snaps he played against the run last season. (For context, Chris Borland led the NFL in run-stop percentage last season at 21.3.)
Meanwhile, Miami's Denzel Perryman and Mississippi State's Benardrick McKinney had run-stop percentages of under 12.0. The two are widely considered top run-stoppers in this incoming linebacker class. Based on the numbers, Dawson is undoubtedly better at making an impact against the run.
Playing the run is only one part of playing linebacker. Rushing the quarterback is another, and Dawson excelled whenever TCU asked him to play downhill against the pass in 2014.
His 96 pass-rushing snaps produced five sacks, 10 quarterback hits and 11 hurries or 26 total quarterback disruptions. Dawson did not lead his position in total disruptions, but his ratio was once again among the best.
His pass-rushing productivity score of 21.6 finished second among all off-ball linebackers, trailing Aaron Davis of Colorado State by just a 10th of a point. The ratio provides context for volume, rewarding players for producing on a per-rush basis.
Overall, Dawson was the only linebacker to be ranked in the top 10 of both run-stop percentage and pass-rushing productivity in 2014.
And what about turnovers? While PFF does not provide a signature statistic involving linebackers and takeaways, Dawson's raw numbers are still impressive. He intercepted four passes, forced two fumbles and recovered three others, giving him nine turnover plays last season.
So how does a measurably slow and small defender become the nation's most dominant linebacking force? Instincts.
There's no greater trait for a linebacker, according to former NFL player and current Bleacher Report analyst Ryan Riddle.
"There are many linebackers in this draft class who are better athletes than Paul Dawson but none who possess the capabilities to sift through traffic and find his way to the ball-carrier like he can," Riddle wrote this week. "This type of ability requires elite awareness."
Michael Renner, who charted Dawson's season for PFF, agrees.
"The one word that I just keep coming back to with Dawson is ‘instincts,'" Renner wrote in his Dawson profile. "He sees runs develop at a truly elite level, racking up unblocked tackles simply because he gets to the point of attack before linemen can get off their combo blocks. There wasn’t a more aggressive linebacker in the country last season and he can play that way because of his instincts."
Fast movement skills mean nothing if a linebacker's instincts aren't developed. Slow movement skills mean equally little if a linebacker can read and react in a flash like Dawson.
His performance against Minnesota last season was a showcase of these abilities.
According to Renner, Dawson produced a ridiculous 11 stops on just 33 run snaps, and he also created three quarterback disruptions. No linebacker had a higher individually graded game than Dawson's dominance over the Golden Gophers.
A full look at the game can be viewed below:
College production is occasionally overrated, especially given the projection nature of the draft business. Dominant traits in college don't always translate to the next level, where the game is different. But PFF applies its numbers with a level of context, which helps calm those worries.
Dawson will hope his elite level of collegiate production eases the concerns about the red flags tied to his draft stock.
One NFC scout probably put it best to NFL.com's Lance Zierlein: "I'll make sure he stays alive in our building because he's that good."
The numbers seem to confirm the scout's assessment. Dawson is worth the risk.
Zach Kruse covers the NFL for Bleacher Report.
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