NFL Mock Draft 2015: Projections for Most Underrated 1st-Round Prospects

Expectations are rarely reasonable for first-round picks in the NFL draft. While teams don't often expect a player to carry a unit from Week 1, fans and analysts tend to get caught up in potential and forget that the player development process doesn't complete itself overnight.

However, there are also first-rounders who sneak up on the public, making a bigger rookie impact than expected despite receiving less post-selection hype. Though no Day 1 pick is unknown thanks to today's 24/7 NFL coverage, there are always a few players whose immediate production exceeds their draft spot.

With the draft roughly two weeks away, we have a pretty good idea of the range in which many prospects will fall. Taking a look at one first-round mock, let's highlight a few less heralded players who could become relative steals.

Pick	Team	Player
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Leonard Williams, DT, USC
4	Oakland Raiders	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
5	Washington	Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida
6	New York Jets	Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
7	Chicago Bears	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
8	Atlanta Falcons	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
9	New York Giants	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
10	St. Louis Rams	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
11	Minnesota Vikings	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
12	Cleveland Browns	Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska
13	New Orleans Saints	Shane Ray, OLB, Missouri
14	Miami Dolphins	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
15	San Francisco 49ers	Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
16	Houston Texans	La'el Collins, OT, LSU
17	San Diego Chargers	Bud Dupree, DE, Kentucky
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Cameron Erving, C, Florida State
19	Cleveland Browns (from Buffalo)	Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Landon Collins, S, Philadelphia
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
23	Detroit Lions	Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
24	Arizona Cardinals	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
25	Carolina Panthers	D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida
26	Baltimore Ravens	Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF
27	Dallas Cowboys	Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
28	Denver Broncos	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
29	Indianapolis Colts	T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
30	Green Bay Packers	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
31	New Orleans Saints (from Seattle)	Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri
32	New England Patriots	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State

DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville

In a super-deep wide receiver class, most have pegged Amari Cooper and Kevin White as the clear top-two at the position. While Cooper and White are likely to be the first and second receivers off the board in some order, Louisville's Parker belongs in the same class, despite a narrative that has portrayed him as the third wheel.

At 6'4" and 209 pounds, Parker is essentially a carbon-copy of White in terms of size, though the ex-Cardinal is a tad slower (4.45 40-yard dash time, compared to 4.35 for White). Coupled with reliable hands and polished route-running, CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora has suggested that scouts see Parker as this year's Odell Beckham Jr., who was also the third receiver taken in last year's draft:

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The receiver who I hear scouts gush quietly about the most is Louisville's DeVante Parker. A year ago around the combine I wrote what several evaluators I really trusted were telling me – that Odell Beckham, Jr. was to them the top receiver in the draft and would be a steal. I'm hearing some similar buzz about Parker...

Parker has pretty much everything scouts are looking for. People rave about his hands and route running. I know some evaluators have him ranked higher than Kevin White, for instance, and while Amari Cooper is seen by some as the safest of the receivers, Parker might not be that far behind. “Parker is the kind of kid who could go to the right spot and put up 1,200 receiving yards as a rookie,” one personnel man said. “He's that good.”

"

The main concern surrounding Parker is his lack of collegiate production, especially after returning from a broken foot last season. Parker fared well receiving passes from Teddy Bridgewater, catching 55 passes for 885 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2013, but saw those numbers dip to 43/855/5 last season. Nevertheless, Parker was still one of the most dangerous scoring threats in the FBS:

Unlike the other receivers on those list, Parker is not a one-trick pony whose currently is only able to threaten the deep half. Though he could use a bit more functional strength to beat bigger press corners in the NFL, Parker may very well establish himself as the best receiver of this class.

Malcom Brown, DT, Texas

Not to be confused with his collegiate running back teammate, Malcom Brown hasn't quite generated much buzz in a top-heavy defensive tackle class. But while no draftnik really seems to place Brown in the same class as presumptive top-10 picks Leonard Williams and Danny Shelton, Bleacher Report's Brett Sobleski suggests that Brown's versatility puts him in that same class:

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Shelton is considered a true nose tackle, while Brown can play along the entire defensive line. The Texas product may project best as a 3-technique (the defensive tackle shaded to the outside shoulder of a guard), but he played all over the Longhorns' defensive line, including 3-4 end. 

“Yeah, you can put me anywhere,” Brown told the Houston Chronicle's John McClain at the combine. “I already know how to play the positions. I played end, stand-up end—all that last year. I played nose (tackle) the previous two years, freshman and sophomore years. I can do it all.”

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Indeed, though he certainly has the size to two-gap at 6'2" and 319 pounds, Brown isn't exclusively limited to 3-4 defenses. He possesses more bend and flexibility than the average defensive tackle, suggesting that he could even play some 2- or 3-technique in sub-package situations. Because of that, Sobleski isn't the only analyst who sees Brown's skill set as providing more overall value than that of Shelton's:

Given that two-down players aren't typically in demand as first-rounders anymore, Brown's ability to move all over the line makes him a relatively high-floor prospect. He does actually need to develop a bit more strength, surprisingly, but did show improvement in that department in 2014.

For a team like Detroit, Cincinnati or Cleveland in need of a defensive tackle who can play from Day 1, Brown would represent a safe if unglamorous choice. But the trenches still stand as the most important swath of the field even in today's increasingly spread-oriented game, so a player with the ability to effectively one- or two-gap like Brown holds plenty of value.

D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

This year's tackle class is unique in that the top players aren't actually surefire bets to stick on the edge. The likes of Brandon Scherff and La'el Collins might start their careers at guard, while more powerful prototypical tackles like Ereck Flowers and T.J. Clemmings are more raw and might need a redshirt year in 2015.

However, though Florida's D.J. Humphries might be the most pro-ready player from the tackle class, there's a solid chance he'll be available in the latter half of Round 1. Humphries certainly isn't a perfect prospect—he has a troubling tendency to fall off blocks in both pass protection and run blocking, a sign of suboptimal balance—but top draft analysts believe he'll stick at left tackle one day:

Humphries' greatest appeal lies in his light feet, a rare commodity for a 6'5", 307-pound tackle. For spread teams that often ask their offensive linemen to down block or move laterally, Humphries could be a nice fit, as Greg Gabriel of the National Football Post illuminates in his scouting report:

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He is one of the more athletic tackles in this draft. He ran 5.12 and had a 31” vertical jump. He is light on his feet with good change of direction and balance.

In pass protection, he shows very good foot quickness, and he is very good with his slide and recover. He is a natural knee bender who keeps his back straight and generally keeps good position when pass blocking...He is athletic in space and can adjust on the move.

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There are several tackle-needy teams at the end of the first round, so a team like Detroit, Arizona, Carolina, Indianapolis or Denver could absolutely use a Day 1 starter like Humphries. He might not end up as the best tackle in this class over the long run, but Humphries is a safer bet to succeed than some of the bigger first-round risks at the position.

*All combine stats and measurables via NFL.com.