Ranking MLB's 15 Biggest Early-Season Storylines
The MLB season is 162 games, so nobody can postulate any safe conclusions midway through April. Yet early offerings occasionally provide a sneak peak at sustainable trends.
At the very least, the results through nearly two weeks give baseball enthusiasts something to discuss.
Will Clayton Kershaw go 0-33? Will Jose Iglesias finish 2015 with a .481 batting average? Probably not on both fronts. But hey, we spent months patiently waiting for baseball. Why wait until July to start talking about it again?
Quite a few of these top storylines will seem silly in September, but perhaps a few will foreshadow something big. This is the only time of the year where players are on pace to hit 100 homers or record a 0.00 ERA, so let's enjoy the chaos.
15. Kris Bryant...Any Day Now
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The weeks of debating seemingly lasted forever, but a dozen days without Kris Bryant in the majors flew by.
Although the Chicago Cubs have yet to promote the prized prospect, it's only a matter of when at this point. Bryant continues to demand attention, following nine spring homers and two more April dingers in Triple-A.
Meanwhile, Mike Olt has a .188 on-base percentage with six strikeouts as Chicago's starting third baseman. Now that the Cubs have successfully delayed Bryant's service clock by a year, they can debut one of baseball's brightest prospects as soon as this weekend.
The only reason they wouldn't is to avoid looking suspicious. Bringing him up now would shine more attention on their painfully obvious intentions.
14. Stanozolol Suspensions
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Jenrry Mejia received an 80-game suspension after testing positive for stanozolol. The New York Mets reliever joins Ervin Santana, Arodys Vizcaíno and David Rollins as the fourth pitcher caught using the steroid.
BALCO founder Victor Conte explained stanozolol's functions to the New York Daily News' Teri Thompson, but he added that it's easy to catch in a drug test.
"Yes, it works,” Conte says. “It helps players get stronger, build muscle mass, boost acceleration, recover faster from workouts and become more aggressive. But if they’re knowingly taking it, the wave of stupidity is amazing.”
The string of suspensions is curious, especially in the supposed post-steroid era where the league is out for vengeance against performance-enhancing drugs. Is there any relation between these occurrences? Or are they part of a larger population who chose the most detectable drug?
While steroids remain prevalent in baseball, at least the tests are working.
13. New, Same-Old Oakland A's
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What was that about Billy Beane ruining the Oakland Athletics? Radically different roster aside, the A's look just like last year's model.
Last season, Oakland finished at a modest 88-74 despite an MLB-high plus-157 margin of victory. This club is only 5-5, but the A's wield a plus-22 scoring margin. Through those five victories, they have outscored the opposition 42-1.
Along with Ben Zobrist and Billy Butler, Ike Davis, Mark Canha and Sam Fuld are crushing in platoon roles. Filling the void for Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija, Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir and Drew Pomeranz have allowed seven combined runs through six starts.
Stuck in a top-heavy American League West with the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners, Oakland faces an uphill battle to another postseason bid. Yet a club that lost its aces and star third baseman Josh Donaldson remains in the running.
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12. Billy Hamilton Running Wild
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Billy Hamilton has already stolen eight bases in eight games, leading the league while setting his sights higher.
Hamilton swiped 56 bags last year, a huge number but a letdown considering his 156 steals accrued through the minors in 2012. Could he push 100 this season? Or how about 80, which would give him baseball's highest tally in 25 years?
For the sophomore to come close, he'll need to sustain his improved discipline. After drawing 34 walks last season, he has already earned four free passes through 36 plate appearances. Nobody doubts his electric quickness, but there's only so much anybody can do with a .292 on-base percentage.
Before inking Hamilton's star ascension in permanent marker, remember he entered last season's All-Star break hitting .285/.319/.423 before stalling with a .200/.257/.257 slash line to conclude his rookie campaign. Showing the fragility of evaluating early performances, he's now hitting .219 after a rousing opening week.
11. Offense Still Trending South
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Entering Wednesday night, MLB teams recorded 4.14 runs per game, slightly up from last year's 4.07 clip. Home runs and walks have also slightly increased, but contact rates continue to plummet.
Down from 2014's subdued .251, the league is collectively hitting .241. If it holds up over the year, that will become the worst measure since 1968.
Once again, strikeouts are the primary culprit. The strikeout rate, up to 7.77 punchouts per game, is on pace to rise to a record high for the seventh straight season.
Searching for power and plate discipline, hitters are willing to sacrifice average. As a whole, however, on-base percentage (.309) and slugging percentage (.691) have also diminished.
While these changes are not cavernous, they align with trends witnessed throughout the past few years.
10. NL Aces Prove Human
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Despite offense continuing to decline, some high-profile aces have kicked off 2015 in rough fashion.
Clayton Kershaw, who allowed more than three earned runs once during last year's Cy Young campaign, yielded six runs (five earned) vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday. Opening the season with three runs allowed through six frames, he now sports a 5.84 ERA.
Last year's postseason messiah, Madison Bumgarner, coughed up 10 hits and five runs during his second start of the season. Making the off day tougher to swallow, he endured it inside the notoriously pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
Not helping the Washington Nationals' drowsy start, Stephen Strasburg has already allowed 19 hits and 11 runs through a pair of starts. With a 7.84 ERA, Jon Lester hasn't given Chicago a sound return on investment in his opening outings.
Don't sound the panic alarm on any ace, even if Bumgarner hurled a hefty 270 innings last year. Every pitcher suffers a down day or two on the mound. It just so happens their bad starts all came right off the bat, drawing attention to otherwise ordinary hiccups.
9. Pace-of-Play Rules Cut Average Time
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Commissioner Rob Manfred's new pace-of-play rules spawned much consternation over the offseason, but the changes have slashed a few minutes off of each game without damaging the overall product.
According to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark, the new rules have yielded some modest yet significant results:
"Through the first Sunday of this season, there were 79 nine-inning games, compared with 85 at the same stage last year. The average length of those games this year has been 2 hours, 54 minutes, 39 seconds. A year ago, the average was 3 hours, 2 minutes and 25 seconds.
Although it is difficult to know if this trend will hold, the average game time through the first week last season varied very little over the course of the season, finishing at 3 hours, 2 minutes and 21 seconds.
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Those precious eight minutes are time fans can spend waiting to escape a cramped stadium parking lot. Or standing in maddening lines to enter due to metal detectors installed in parks across the league.
For anyone worried about ruining the fabric of the game by speeding it up, sorry. It turns out a typical MLB game can move faster by eliminating some needless dilly-dallying, and baseball can't afford to bore the next generation of viewers who demand instant gratification.
8. Alex Rodriguez Returns Strong
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Sports fan don't forget, unless the perpetrator in question plays well. Saddled as Public Enemy No. 1 on the sidelines last year, Alex Rodriguez has returned from a yearlong suspension with zest.
Through nine games, the former MVP has generated a .965 OPS. Baseball's favorite villain quickly regained trust from the New York Yankees faithful once they realized he offers an upgrade at designated hitter.
Spending his entire career with the weight of the world on his shoulders, the 39-year-old is now playing with house money. With nobody reasonably projecting a 30-homer season from Rodriguez or title run from the Bronx Bombers, he can play without a colossal burden.
"Well, I got a lot of good work in spring training," Rodriguez told ESPNNewYork.com's Wallace Matthews. "But I think anything I do this year is a surprise to a lot of people and sometimes to me too."
The best part? Everyone at least must forgo their morality tales and dig into his actual numbers on the diamond.
7. Break Up the Braves
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If trading Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Evan Gattis wasn't enough to position the Atlanta Braves as one of 2015's worst teams, they surprisingly dealt Craig Kimbrel right before Opening Day. Surely a rebuilding team will stink after orchestrating a fire sale.
Somebody forgot to give them the memo. The Braves won their first five games, scoring 26 runs through that stretch. Even after falling to 6-3, they share first place in the National League East with the New York Mets.
Despite dealing arguably baseball's best relief pitcher, the Braves started strong due to exquisite bullpen work. Their relief corps registered a 0.44 ERA through their opening winning streak, with only Juan Jaime surrendering any runs during the opening week.
De facto closer Jason Grilli has recorded four saves, and Jim Johnson is a completely different pitcher from the one torpedoed to a 7.09 ERA last year.
Let's be clear: The Braves, who have dropped their last two games, won't keep this up. There's no reason to alter expectations for an atrocious offense after a few games, mostly just one huge outing against Mat Latos. As for the bullpen, it won't perform at record-setting rates for 162 games without Kimbrel.
Yet they might as well enjoy first place now before the Nationals rip it away.
6. Wake Up Washington
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The Nationals are supposed to run away with the NL East, and it's not supposed to be close. They also entered the season as a popular championship pick, which made sense given an above-average lineup and filthy rotation.
Before showing life against the Boston Red Sox, Washington mustered 17 runs through seven games. Then the offense delivered the same scoring output through the next two games, but Boston shelled Jordan Zimmermann and Stephen Strasburg.
Jayson Werth made his season debut Monday, so his absence played a pivotal role in the Nationals' slow start. Yet Anthony Rendon, last year's team leader in WAR (6.5) and slugging percentage (.473), remains on the disabled list.
Adam LaRoche's departure appears a bigger blow than anyone thought, and Ian Desmond has already committed five errors at shortstop. Despite Strasburg's early struggles, a loaded rotation will overcome such blemishes. Still, these struggles are noteworthy coming from an anticipated powerhouse.
5. Adrian Gonzalez's Power Tear
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Three games into the season, Adrian Gonzalez already sent five balls over the fence. One of the early highlights of 2015, he delivered a trio of dingers against the San Diego Padres on April 8.
Four teams have still not produced five homers this year.
Gonzalez is no stranger to fast starts. Last season, he homered in four straight games from April 9-13. Over his career, the lefty boast a .304/.375/.532 slash line before May 1.
The 32-year-old has not submitted a slugging percentage over .500 since 2011, but he's currently sitting at a pretty 1.111. That will probably drop a bit as the year progresses. Probably.
4. Cabrera, Tigers on the Prowl
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Hey, so Miguel Cabrera looks fine.
Despite starting his spring late due to an ankle injury, the Detroit Tigers slugger has started the season in peak condition, hitting a gaudy .432/.500/.676 with two home runs. Along with those obviously unsustainable numbers, he has drawn five walks while striking out four times.
Albeit a small sample size, Detroit is relieved to see its star first baseman healthy. He's also not the only Tiger raking in early April. The offense has scored 54 runs while collectively hitting .312 with a .386 on-base percentage.
J.D. Martinez has done his darndest to prove last year was no mere fluke, already blasting four homers. If his power is indeed legit, Detroit will terrorize pitchers all year.
3. Indians Lose Yan Gomes
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A trendy World Series pick entering the season, the Cleveland Indians already lost an essential component to that plan. Spraining his knee on Saturday, Yan Gomes is expected to miss six-to-eight weeks.
Despite authoring a .313 on-base percentage last year, Gomes' 4.6 fWAR ranked fourth among catchers after Buster Posey, Jonathan Lucroy and Russell Martin. Taking over for Carlos Santana at catcher, the 27-year-old amassed a .472 slugging percentage while playing excellent defense behind the plate.
Given his power and pitch-framing acumen, Gomes is Cleveland's second-most valuable position player behind Michael Brantley. With many researchers speculating that catchers remain underappreciated, he might even top the list.
As the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals open the season on fire, the Indians are forced to spend the foreseeable future without their All-Star-caliber catcher.
2. Welcome Back Dark Knight, So Long Captain America
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On Tuesday night, Citi Field was abuzz with energy unmatched in years. After missing all of last year recovering from Tommy John surgery, Matt Harvey returned to fill Queens with hope.
The ace allowed three runs while punching out eight Philadelphia Phillies through six frames, giving him a 2.25 ERA through a pair of victorious starts. But when do things ever go smoothly for the Mets?
If everything is always sunny in Philadelphia, it's always gloomy in the Big Apple. During the eighth inning, David Wright strained his right hamstring sliding into second base. The next day, New York placed him on the disabled list.
While the move sounds precautionary, an already average offense will have difficulty holding down the fort with Eric Campbell at third base.
The flowers were supposed to blossom in Flushing, but Harvey's comeback—already curtailed by Zack Wheeler undergoing the same surgery in March—has become more clouded with New York's captain sidelined.
At least Batman is back, but the Mets need all their superheroes to make their first postseason trip since 2006. That includes Captain America and Thor.
1. Royals Rolling
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They hit fewer home runs than anyone last year. They won a slew of close postseason games after sneaking in, and then they lost their ace. A clear regression candidate, the Kansas City Royals instead look much better than last year's World Series representatives.
At 7-1, the Royals aren't winning with their usual scrappiness. They're flexing their muscles with 10 homers. They sport the MLB's second-best run differential at plus-32, already above last season's plus-27 margin.
Kendrys Morales is paying dividends in Billy Butler's old role, smacking three doubles and two homers as the new designated hitter. Mike Moustakas is carrying over a strong postseason into April, reviving hope of his long-awaited breakout.
Salvador Perez, who hit five homers through last year's opening two months, already has three deep flies. It's early, but the Royals still harness incredible defense and relief pitching to make noise if their young offense cooperates.
Note: Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com.
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