Mario Edwards Is One of NFL Draft's Biggest Risers, but Is He a 1st-Round Pick?

The last few weeks before the NFL draft are like the back stretch in a horse race. Players jockey for position, hopeful that a late charge will propel them to the front of the pack.

Florida State defensive lineman Mario Edwards Jr. is an interesting case in that regard this year, a 5-star recruit whose production never matched his potential in Tallahassee. You won't find the 6'3", 279-pounder in the first round of many mock drafts, but it appears that NFL teams are a fair bit more enamored with Edwards than the draftnik community.

That's the latest from Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports, who tweeted Monday that Edwards was a hot topic of conversation at Florida State's recent pro day:

That sentiment was echoed by one NFL evaluator who spoke with Jason La Canfora of CBS Sports:

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Why aren't any of you guys writing about Mario Edwards? I look around the Internet at these mock drafts and I don't think I've seen him in the first round in one of them. He's not showing up in any of them. I think you're missing on him. He's going to surprise some people. I think he goes in the first round. In this [not overly talented] draft, he's definitely a first-rounder for me.

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Sure enough, you won't find Edwards' name included among the first 32 picks of most mock drafts this spring. In Bleacher Report NFL Draft Lead Writer Matt Miller's most recent seven-round mock, he forecasts Edwards falling all the way to the third round and the San Francisco 49ers at pick No. 79 overall.

Charlie Campbell of Walter Football, on the other hand, mocked Edwards to the Seattle Seahawks near the end of Round 2:

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The Seahawks could use an interior defensive lineman capable of collapsing the pocket. The 6-foot-3, 279-pounder has a nice combination of power, speed and athleticism. Edwards played heavier in college, but has the versatility to play end or tackle in the NFL. He also could serve as a five-technique in a 3-4 defense.

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So why the disconnect? What are NFL teams seeing that armchair scouts aren't?

Well, for starters, as Mike Mayock of NFL Network (via NFL.com's Bryan Fischer) pointed out, there's the matter of Edwards' fluctuating weight:

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Back in August, he was over 300 pounds. At the combine, 279 -- 272 at his pro day. Now he looks like a base defensive end who can kick inside on sub-packages. That gets some teams excited. The question is, though, now that you're paying him as a second-round pick, which guy are you getting, the 300-pounder or the 272-pounder with an edge?

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If Edwards does go in the first round, that question (and Edwards' salary) only becomes amplified.

There's also the matter of the numbers Edwards did (or more appropriately did not) post at Florida State.

Year	G	Tackles	TFL	Sacks	INT	FF
2012	10	17	2.5	1.5	0	0
2013	12	28	9.5	3.5	1	1
2014	13	44	11.0	3.0	0	2

Edwards wasn't just one of the most highly touted defensive linemen in the nation when he enrolled at Florida State back in 2012. He was one of the highest-ranked players at any position. Both Scout.com and Rivals ranked Edwards as a top-five prospect overall.

However, Edwards never really lived up to the hype with the Seminoles. Sure, there were flashes, but Edwards failed to tally more than 3.5 sacks in any of his three years at FSU. It was enough for Lance Zierlein of NFL.com to label Edwards a stout run defender but an "ineffective" pass-rusher.

That's the NFL equivalent of being told you have a lovely personality—at a beauty contest.

There are also questions about Edwards' effort level. All the way back in December, Miller wrote that Edwards was falling on his board as a result of the dreaded "taking plays off":

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Mario Edwards is uniquely athletic for his size and definitely pops off the screen as a player who should dominate games. And then you wait for him to show up and take over the offensive line and he doesn't. And when evaluating defensive linemen, that's a major red flag for me.

Edwards isn't physically like Ra'Shede Hageman, but they remind me of each other in that their physique leads you to believe they'll be this world-beater of a player, but their production and in-game impact don't match up with the potential of their athleticism.

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That frustration was shared by an AFC scout who spoke with Zierlein:

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I think conditioning and desire are a big problem for him and they go hand in hand. He just looks content to stay blocked by lesser players, and it is so frustrating to watch because you know he has the talent to be so much better.

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It's a dilemma that's as old as the NFL draft. Choosing a player based off what he showed in college or selecting him because of what you think he'll do in the NFL.

And it's not hard to see why some scouts salivate over what Edwards might be capable of in the NFL. He's a powerful player who comes off the snap and sets the edge well. Edwards has experience playing both inside and outside, a virtue that appeals to many NFL teams.

And most questions about his athleticism can be answered by this:

We'll call that, "Exhibit WOW."

One Seminoles staffer told La Canfora that the criticisms of Edwards' production at Florida State are overblown:

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There were some very high expectations on him coming as the No. 1 recruit in the nation, so I guess maybe to some on the outside it might seem like his numbers aren't huge or something like that. But if you evaluate his entire Florida State career, he played a very major role on a team that went 39-3 with him here, and that was just 9-4 the season before he and Jameis [Winston] got here.

He has great leadership qualities. He was one of the most coachable kids you could work with. You could always count on him on the field and off the field. He did everything that was asked of him and expected of him. He was incredibly well-liked within the program. He's very comfortable with the professional game because of his legacy with his father playing in the NFL. He's built for the league and he will keep getting better.

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And that's the thing. The potential is there. The strength. The power. The burst off the edge. Granted, Edwards may never be a 15-sack player, but there's some Michael Bennett (of the Seattle Seahawks) to his game—the possibility of a capable and versatile strong-side end who can set the edge against the run, help the pass rush and kick inside on passing downs.

Of course, there's also the very real possibility that Edwards' weight and effort level will continue to fluctuate, and that three years from now we'll still be talking about what Edwards might do instead of what he's done.

It appears that more NFL teams than we thought are willing to roll those dice, and if these reports are to be believed, then Mario Edwards is going to go a lot earlier in the 2015 NFL draft than many expected.

Whether that's a good idea or a bad one may well not be known for a year or two. But hey, they don't call them risk-reward picks for nothing.

Gary Davenport is an NFL Analyst at Bleacher Report and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and the Pro Football Writers of America. You can follow Gary on Twitter at @IDPManor.