2015 NFL Draft: What Happens If Jameis Winston Isn't the Top Pick?

Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston has been projected as the No. 1 overall pick in virtually every mock draft since February's NFL Scouting Combine. Yet with just two weeks and two days to go until the 2015 NFL draft, it remains just as possible that the Buccaneers could go against those projections and draft Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota instead.

A wide variety of sources—from local Buccaneers beat writers like Ira Kaufman of the Tampa Tribune to national writers like Peter Schrager of FoxSports.com—remain adamant that Winston will be the top choice. The consensus among most NFL reporters or analysts that have inside information—or at least claim to—is that Winston has been, still is and will be the name Tampa Bay submits on its card when the draft begins April 30.

That said, there have been some reports to the contrary.

"Sources around the league, who are pretty wired in" say Mariota will be the No. 1 overall pick, ESPN's Ron Jaworski told Comcast SportsNet's Philly Sports Talk on Friday (via Tim McManus of PhillyMag.com).

Joe Bussell, a former team operations manager for the Buccaneers who goes by the moniker @NFLosophy on Twitter, seconded that report Monday.

Suddenly, after months of presumptions that the Buccaneers would ultimately draft Winston, a stark dichotomy has arisen at the top of the draft. Rotoworld's Josh Norris summed it up nicely Monday:

Realistically, we are smack-dab in the middle of "lying season," so it's possible sources from within the Buccaneers organization are intentionally leaking inaccurate information, one way or the other, to mislead NFL teams about their real intention.

With that being said, the Buccaneers themselves have made no indication—at least not publicly—as to which quarterback they plan to select at No. 1 overall. The only thing they have made clear, through their well-advertised private workouts with both Winston and Mariota last week, is that they have been continuing to do extensive research on both prospects.

If the Buccaneers are still working toward a final decision on which quarterback they should take, that could be a reason for the dissenting information apparently coming from sources within or close to the organization.

At the very least, the idea that Mariota could be the No. 1 overall pick should not yet be ruled out. That could force NFL teams—specifically, the Tennessee Titans and any team that might be considering trading up to the No. 2 overall pick—to consider how the rest of the draft could be affected if the Buccaneers opt for Mariota over Winston.

If Mariota Goes No. 1, Will Winston Go No. 2?

Probably.

As Bleacher Report's Jason Cole broke down in the following video, the Titans have three options for the No. 2 overall pick: draft whichever of the top two quarterbacks is still available, draft the best non-quarterback available (likely USC defensive lineman Leonard Williams) or trade down:

If Winston is still on the board at No. 2, that might increase the Titans' desire to stay put and draft a quarterback.

While Mariota is a mobile dual threat coming out of a spread offense, Winston is viewed as a more traditional, pro-style pocket passer, which would presumably make him a better fit for the pocket-based offense run by Titans head coach Ken Whisenhunt and offensive coordinator Jason Michael.

Whether or not the Titans are actually in the market for a new signal-caller remains uncertain. According to David Climer of The Tennessean, Whisenhunt and general manager Ruston Webster "think they pulled the steal of the 2014 draft" by landing Zach Mettenberger, who started six games as a rookie, with a sixth-round pick.

"Titans brass see Mettenberger as a poor team's Tom Brady," Climer wrote. "He's the quarterback."

Even if that's the case, the prospect of drafting Winston could be tough to pass up. The 6'4", 231-pound quarterback has a combination of arm strength, intelligence and ability to make plays under pressure that has some analysts, including Brian Baldinger of NFL.com, calling Winston "the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck," who was the No. 1 overall pick of the 2012 draft.

While Mariota's detractors have questioned his ability to run a pro-style offense, Winston comes with his own set of concerns that could leave the Titans inclined to go in another direction. Winston's play in 2014 did not live up to the standards of his Heisman Trophy and national championship redshirt freshman season while his problematic off-field history makes him a risky selection for any club.

Still, the Titans are a team that needs to add some excitement to the roster—perhaps more so than any other team in the NFL—and drafting Winston would do that.

At least feigning interest in Winston, the Titans announced Monday, via their Twitter account, that the quarterback prospect was visiting the team's facility:

One reason for the Titans to exhibit interest in Winston, as well as Mariota, could be that there are a number of teams mulling a trade up to No. 2 to draft one of the top quarterbacks.

Given the aforementioned concerns, it's uncertain whether Winston being available at No. 2 rather than Mariota would increase or decrease the likelihood of a team moving up for a quarterback.

Two teams who could consider a trade up for Winston at No. 2 are the New York Jets, who hold the sixth overall pick, and the St. Louis Rams, who are set to draft 10th. Winston is scheduled to visit the Jets and has a private workout with the Rams later this week, according to the NFL Network's Albert Breer.

Should Winston make a surprising fall past the second pick, the No. 6 slot would presumably be his draft floor. According to another report from Cole, the Jets—who have a new head coach, general manager and offensive coordinator this year—"want to move on from Geno Smith and want to find another answer at quarterback."

The Washington Redskins could certainly consider drafting Winston if he is still on the board at No. 5 overall. Other candidates to try to trade up ahead of the Jets could include the Chicago Bears, who hold the No. 7 overall pick, and the Cleveland Browns, who have two first-round picks (Nos. 12 and 19 overall).

All of that said, it would be a surprise if the Titans stayed put at No. 2 and passed up a chance to draft Winston. While Mettenberger played well enough in his rookie season to appear a viable starting option for 2015, Winston has the tools to be an elite NFL passer if he can become less mistake-prone on the field and keep his act together off the field.

How Would the Rest of the First Round Play Out?

Knowing which quarterback the Buccaneers will take at No. 1 would not do much to make the 2015 NFL draft any less unpredictable. Whether Winston or Mariota is the top selection, if the Titans trade the No. 2 pick, it could have a major ripple effect on the rest of Round 1.

Nonetheless, it's fun to look ahead at potential scenarios and how each pick could play out. So here's an updated mock draft of how the first round could unfold in the "what if" event of Winston falling past the top slot.

Dan Hope's Hypothetical Mock Draft if Mariota Goes No. 1

Pick	Team	Player
1	Tampa Bay	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
2	Tennessee	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
3	Jacksonville	Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida
4	Oakland	Leonard Williams, DE/DT, USC
5	Washington	Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson
6	New York Jets	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
7	Chicago	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
8	Atlanta	Alvin Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky
9	New York Giants	Brandon Scherff, OT/G, Iowa
10	St. Louis	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
11	Minnesota	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
12	Cleveland	Danny Shelton, NT, Washington
13	New Orleans	Randy Gregory, OLB/DE, Nebraska
14	Miami	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
15	San Francisco	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
16	Houston	Eric Kendricks, ILB, UCLA
17	San Diego	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
18	Kansas City	La'el Collins, OT/G, LSU
19	Cleveland	Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA
20	Philadelphia	Byron Jones, CB, UConn
21	Cincinnati	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
22	Pittsburgh	Shane Ray, OLB/DE, Missouri
23	Detroit	Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
24	Arizona	Eli Harold, OLB, Virginia
25	Carolina	Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M
26	Baltimore	Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
27	Dallas	Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington
28	Denver	Jake Fisher, OT, Oregon
29	Indianapolis	Eric Rowe, CB/S, Utah
30	Green Bay	Stephone Anthony, ILB, Clemson
31	New Orleans	Jordan Phillips, NT, Oklahoma
32	New England	Eddie Goldman, NT, Florida State

In the event of a trade down from the No. 2 slot, the Titans' potential targets (pending availability) could include a wide receiver—Amari Cooper, Kevin White or DeVante Parker—or a pass-rusher such as Randy Gregory or Shane Ray.

Should the Titans stay put but draft Leonard Williams, the Oakland Raiders would likely use the No. 4 overall pick on a wide receiver—Cooper or White—or trade the pick to a team that wants Winston. In that scenario, their phones would almost certainly be ringing with teams trying to move up for the player many consider to be the top quarterback in this year's class.

April 30 will surely be a night full of surprises.

Dan Hope is an NFL Draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.